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Chaos from order: a network analysis of in-fighting before and after El Chapo’s arrest Cover

Chaos from order: a network analysis of in-fighting before and after El Chapo’s arrest

Connections
Volume 41 (2021): Issue 1 (January 2021)
By: Darren Colby  
Open Access
|Nov 2021

Figures & Tables

Figure 1:

The network of in-fighting among cartels and militias in Mexico. The top panel is the network of interactions among groups in the five years leading up to El Chapo’s arrest and the right side shows interactions in the five years after El Chapo’s arrest. Nodes are colored according to their structurally defined role and it is assumed that interactions that occurred during before El Chapo’s detention persisted after he was arrested.
The network of in-fighting among cartels and militias in Mexico. The top panel is the network of interactions among groups in the five years leading up to El Chapo’s arrest and the right side shows interactions in the five years after El Chapo’s arrest. Nodes are colored according to their structurally defined role and it is assumed that interactions that occurred during before El Chapo’s detention persisted after he was arrested.

Figure 2:

Degree distribution of in-fighting networks before and after El Chapo’s arrest. The plots on the left show degree distribution of the in-fighting network before El Chapo was arrested and the right side is after. The top portion displays in-degree distribution while the bottom shows out-degree. Ties from the pre-arrest period are assumed to persist in the post-arrest period.
Degree distribution of in-fighting networks before and after El Chapo’s arrest. The plots on the left show degree distribution of the in-fighting network before El Chapo was arrested and the right side is after. The top portion displays in-degree distribution while the bottom shows out-degree. Ties from the pre-arrest period are assumed to persist in the post-arrest period.

Figure 3:

Change in the mean relative importance for network effects between the pre-arrest and post-arrest periods. Out-degree Jaccard similarity is an indicator for alliances. Arrowheads indicate the direction of change and numbers show quantities of change. Statistically significant effects, per a Wald test with p < 0.05, are red.
Change in the mean relative importance for network effects between the pre-arrest and post-arrest periods. Out-degree Jaccard similarity is an indicator for alliances. Arrowheads indicate the direction of change and numbers show quantities of change. Statistically significant effects, per a Wald test with p < 0.05, are red.

Figure 4:

Change in the mean relative importance of network effects between the pre and post-arrest periods. In-degree popularity reflects preferential attachment while out-in-degree assortativity is indicative of aggressive organizations preying on less aggressive rivals. Arrowheads show the direction and numbers show quantities of change. Statistically significant effects are red.
Change in the mean relative importance of network effects between the pre and post-arrest periods. In-degree popularity reflects preferential attachment while out-in-degree assortativity is indicative of aggressive organizations preying on less aggressive rivals. Arrowheads show the direction and numbers show quantities of change. Statistically significant effects are red.

Figure 5:

Change in the mean relative importance for network effects before and after El Chapo’s arrest. Transitive closure approximates clustering. Direction of changes is represented by arrowheads and effect size is given by numbers above each line segment. Statistically significant effects are shown in red.
Change in the mean relative importance for network effects before and after El Chapo’s arrest. Transitive closure approximates clustering. Direction of changes is represented by arrowheads and effect size is given by numbers above each line segment. Statistically significant effects are shown in red.

Figure A1:

Structural equivalence group solutions. Numbers on the x-axis are the number of structural equivalence groups and the y-axis represents the mean of the error between fitted structural equivalence groups and the ideal structural equivalence groups across ten simulations.
Structural equivalence group solutions. Numbers on the x-axis are the number of structural equivalence groups and the y-axis represents the mean of the error between fitted structural equivalence groups and the ideal structural equivalence groups across ten simulations.

Results of four stochastic actor oriented models

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/connections-2021.023 | Journal eISSN: 2816-4245 | Journal ISSN: 0226-1766
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Language: English
Page range: 1 - 11
Published on: Nov 6, 2021
Published by: International Network for Social Network Analysis (INSNA)
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year
Keywords:
Cartels,
El Chapo,
In-fighting,
Leadership decapitation,
Network analysis
Related subjects:
Social sciences,
Social sciences, other

© 2021 Darren Colby, published by International Network for Social Network Analysis (INSNA)
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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