Figure 1.
![The use of ex-post and ex-ante analyses in environmental policy. Source: own elaboration based on [2]](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/64706f4783f1392090d6977e/j_acee-2019-028_fig_001.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIA6AP2G7AKFI3PQCHL%2F20251213%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20251213T194629Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEFYaDGV1LWNlbnRyYWwtMSJHMEUCIQDj7bBnRj6EMOVcJCIvf2ioAARQkHXWe%2BA6SsHpBelhggIgXNtSA77yugDsdohXidBN4EEkuugIHYDfQb%2FOcPpr%2BFcqvQUIHxACGgw5NjMxMzQyODk5NDAiDC%2FQuHmHPxjkObCY4yqaBSuxvaQPreCM09XjpFgN4dtV8mZydiP7w2Ta2Z1Fc2x42YwHQLwFq5l316Rx4IAHvnZl4S4rT88mWcRnZHAacfzWVDGZQLpHVUPzCUFbgi7Ftj1TxRiud0y%2FVOURnOlDJrzzbDVTDBL68x%2F9Zf%2B4gz81hW2esP0mBLi4B33r2%2FAK9Hj5u3kQcKGNQsVR1QLC0wE1NI3V6H60FUD7wmhldPqrftomk2ub8Bcd9r4clb2Psh3DSBYYmIWemPhWk8Uu4JrNinRB41AudDJI%2BDkwdQ7ZB55uoaBgkCYArZWkR9GrJlT%2F6h1o4fCQEvc1MU89RRsbn%2Fo3oYNQ9x1ZdvLpybtPX1SA%2FQCwxfmrQbaxL23bPUZHbQajGUdqC5spaIy9AfGA%2BYkkuu%2B0TF7aA8s2RYLdKQ1X4Hzxq2ecPrNL1KfKpewGnJiwxYWOJVRFSHklCDFlSaI2u%2Fe7KLABWX3Pfi%2BZH12bJsd7UkdL%2BsmeTlsnqg2CcKbScKoNuvGTWakefxuj60ySwxkgXoOcxxoEFw3pbkuWfUP4g50rKXsweHFNqyrc2nXJ%2BcH1an8qqqNFyIBdtAugVztCuK5R1jTcSnMVcG%2FPzF4dx7cFMZIgwhwLpr27ie%2F%2BxZlQzp8UUEpxy72JIWt8Bj09hA%2FtO2XmnraiIEk4wvn9CyYO5Vc%2FCztlkt9IBH1NcqPwoUkt02bUCmdesFC6uyE7xTHmaLX1JqGoc8TS%2BWTzR%2FeDcrWRNmnt5Fsxf5u%2BeBnFGe7csVZOJoNbge82inFozDXNEh5YXIlSThNeZvsTI2cZzrQ%2Bad9gM9m6GKSKcFCW0HnKiKonY1EegDwyxUfWisRwAZt%2BrYr2TlxGePa9tXUPR8pqVTWHXe09WbOqTN6BTDDC5%2FXJBjqxAdrXBqgFa0S4Rj1P5Hi6YV9VB64fKsHe1GuvDfU1Mx4AJCBdaAcdFOPd5iVzqZoE7q%2FwERv7nNhT71cNS9cFOdtkvnvaA4MuTWAM4Jesac30ZUYYJcVetlcWD27mauOG2hzImoTS5yNZw11DKHowR7xptXiWzyTh94LIP%2Bln29wBWXq6Fc1oImqBR5v8fCbZlw%2ByWRQhPJhTtUcLYrd%2FzkPAtP%2Fn6OfOCec3Vr9wh%2BOtGg%3D%3D&X-Amz-Signature=00b007578582b1a69739446743c227e025955f98680d8b0e67a2df9624a50f90&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
![Forecasted value of gross cost efficiency in 2020 in period I (2002–2007) and period II (2008–2013) [million PLN/% emission reduction compared to the base year 1998], fixed costs in 2013. Source: own elaboration](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/64706f4783f1392090d6977e/j_acee-2019-028_fig_003.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIA6AP2G7AKFI3PQCHL%2F20251213%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20251213T194629Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEFYaDGV1LWNlbnRyYWwtMSJHMEUCIQDj7bBnRj6EMOVcJCIvf2ioAARQkHXWe%2BA6SsHpBelhggIgXNtSA77yugDsdohXidBN4EEkuugIHYDfQb%2FOcPpr%2BFcqvQUIHxACGgw5NjMxMzQyODk5NDAiDC%2FQuHmHPxjkObCY4yqaBSuxvaQPreCM09XjpFgN4dtV8mZydiP7w2Ta2Z1Fc2x42YwHQLwFq5l316Rx4IAHvnZl4S4rT88mWcRnZHAacfzWVDGZQLpHVUPzCUFbgi7Ftj1TxRiud0y%2FVOURnOlDJrzzbDVTDBL68x%2F9Zf%2B4gz81hW2esP0mBLi4B33r2%2FAK9Hj5u3kQcKGNQsVR1QLC0wE1NI3V6H60FUD7wmhldPqrftomk2ub8Bcd9r4clb2Psh3DSBYYmIWemPhWk8Uu4JrNinRB41AudDJI%2BDkwdQ7ZB55uoaBgkCYArZWkR9GrJlT%2F6h1o4fCQEvc1MU89RRsbn%2Fo3oYNQ9x1ZdvLpybtPX1SA%2FQCwxfmrQbaxL23bPUZHbQajGUdqC5spaIy9AfGA%2BYkkuu%2B0TF7aA8s2RYLdKQ1X4Hzxq2ecPrNL1KfKpewGnJiwxYWOJVRFSHklCDFlSaI2u%2Fe7KLABWX3Pfi%2BZH12bJsd7UkdL%2BsmeTlsnqg2CcKbScKoNuvGTWakefxuj60ySwxkgXoOcxxoEFw3pbkuWfUP4g50rKXsweHFNqyrc2nXJ%2BcH1an8qqqNFyIBdtAugVztCuK5R1jTcSnMVcG%2FPzF4dx7cFMZIgwhwLpr27ie%2F%2BxZlQzp8UUEpxy72JIWt8Bj09hA%2FtO2XmnraiIEk4wvn9CyYO5Vc%2FCztlkt9IBH1NcqPwoUkt02bUCmdesFC6uyE7xTHmaLX1JqGoc8TS%2BWTzR%2FeDcrWRNmnt5Fsxf5u%2BeBnFGe7csVZOJoNbge82inFozDXNEh5YXIlSThNeZvsTI2cZzrQ%2Bad9gM9m6GKSKcFCW0HnKiKonY1EegDwyxUfWisRwAZt%2BrYr2TlxGePa9tXUPR8pqVTWHXe09WbOqTN6BTDDC5%2FXJBjqxAdrXBqgFa0S4Rj1P5Hi6YV9VB64fKsHe1GuvDfU1Mx4AJCBdaAcdFOPd5iVzqZoE7q%2FwERv7nNhT71cNS9cFOdtkvnvaA4MuTWAM4Jesac30ZUYYJcVetlcWD27mauOG2hzImoTS5yNZw11DKHowR7xptXiWzyTh94LIP%2Bln29wBWXq6Fc1oImqBR5v8fCbZlw%2ByWRQhPJhTtUcLYrd%2FzkPAtP%2Fn6OfOCec3Vr9wh%2BOtGg%3D%3D&X-Amz-Signature=6786cabb7882d84eb8d597a9a2a90b3b1c67209fc2913a00ca1950adf28939bf&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
Figure 4.
![The actual and projected value of the environmental effect in 2020 in period I (2002–2007) and period II (2008–2013) [percentage of emission reductions compared to the base year 1998]. Source: own elaboration](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/64706f4783f1392090d6977e/j_acee-2019-028_fig_004.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIA6AP2G7AKFI3PQCHL%2F20251213%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20251213T194629Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEFYaDGV1LWNlbnRyYWwtMSJHMEUCIQDj7bBnRj6EMOVcJCIvf2ioAARQkHXWe%2BA6SsHpBelhggIgXNtSA77yugDsdohXidBN4EEkuugIHYDfQb%2FOcPpr%2BFcqvQUIHxACGgw5NjMxMzQyODk5NDAiDC%2FQuHmHPxjkObCY4yqaBSuxvaQPreCM09XjpFgN4dtV8mZydiP7w2Ta2Z1Fc2x42YwHQLwFq5l316Rx4IAHvnZl4S4rT88mWcRnZHAacfzWVDGZQLpHVUPzCUFbgi7Ftj1TxRiud0y%2FVOURnOlDJrzzbDVTDBL68x%2F9Zf%2B4gz81hW2esP0mBLi4B33r2%2FAK9Hj5u3kQcKGNQsVR1QLC0wE1NI3V6H60FUD7wmhldPqrftomk2ub8Bcd9r4clb2Psh3DSBYYmIWemPhWk8Uu4JrNinRB41AudDJI%2BDkwdQ7ZB55uoaBgkCYArZWkR9GrJlT%2F6h1o4fCQEvc1MU89RRsbn%2Fo3oYNQ9x1ZdvLpybtPX1SA%2FQCwxfmrQbaxL23bPUZHbQajGUdqC5spaIy9AfGA%2BYkkuu%2B0TF7aA8s2RYLdKQ1X4Hzxq2ecPrNL1KfKpewGnJiwxYWOJVRFSHklCDFlSaI2u%2Fe7KLABWX3Pfi%2BZH12bJsd7UkdL%2BsmeTlsnqg2CcKbScKoNuvGTWakefxuj60ySwxkgXoOcxxoEFw3pbkuWfUP4g50rKXsweHFNqyrc2nXJ%2BcH1an8qqqNFyIBdtAugVztCuK5R1jTcSnMVcG%2FPzF4dx7cFMZIgwhwLpr27ie%2F%2BxZlQzp8UUEpxy72JIWt8Bj09hA%2FtO2XmnraiIEk4wvn9CyYO5Vc%2FCztlkt9IBH1NcqPwoUkt02bUCmdesFC6uyE7xTHmaLX1JqGoc8TS%2BWTzR%2FeDcrWRNmnt5Fsxf5u%2BeBnFGe7csVZOJoNbge82inFozDXNEh5YXIlSThNeZvsTI2cZzrQ%2Bad9gM9m6GKSKcFCW0HnKiKonY1EegDwyxUfWisRwAZt%2BrYr2TlxGePa9tXUPR8pqVTWHXe09WbOqTN6BTDDC5%2FXJBjqxAdrXBqgFa0S4Rj1P5Hi6YV9VB64fKsHe1GuvDfU1Mx4AJCBdaAcdFOPd5iVzqZoE7q%2FwERv7nNhT71cNS9cFOdtkvnvaA4MuTWAM4Jesac30ZUYYJcVetlcWD27mauOG2hzImoTS5yNZw11DKHowR7xptXiWzyTh94LIP%2Bln29wBWXq6Fc1oImqBR5v8fCbZlw%2ByWRQhPJhTtUcLYrd%2FzkPAtP%2Fn6OfOCec3Vr9wh%2BOtGg%3D%3D&X-Amz-Signature=2906cc7550b0b3ab201c9bbda0b5ff67feddc4b26ac22a670861699c06a89541&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
The environmental effect
| Detailed list | Year of analysis | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I period of analysis | ||||||
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
| Environmental effect [% of CO2reduction] | 33.945 | 30.759 | 31.496 | 31.719 | 29.627 | 31.634 |
| II period of analysis | ||||||
| 2008 | 2008 | 2008 | 2008 | 2008 | 2008 | |
| 33.988 | 33.988 | 33.988 | 33.988 | 33.988 | 33.988 | |
The measures of matching and verification of linearised time series models of cost-effectiveness time series
| Specification | Measurements of model fit and verification | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 | The standard error of estimation | Statistics F | p | |
| Gross Costs | ||||
| The first period | 0.5421 | 1.939 | 4.7351 | 0.0952 |
| The second period | 0.5505 | 1.851 | 4.8985 | 0.0912 |
| Net costs | ||||
| The first period | 0.5475 | 1.870 | 4.8409 | 0.0926 |
| The second period | 0.2095 | 1.924 | 1.0603 | 0.3613 |
Cost-effectiveness of CO2 reduction measures in the years 2002–2013 [million PLN/percentage of CO2 emission reduction, related to the 1988 emission level], fixed prices in 2013
| Analysis period | Year | Cost-effectiveness in relation to gross costs | Cost-effectiveness in relation to net costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| I period | 2002 | 35.9693 | 35.1902 |
| 2003 | 41.5068 | 40.6470 | |
| 2004 | 39.5434 | 38.7038 | |
| 2005 | 39.3764 | 38.5426 | |
| 2006 | 43.6976 | 42.6623 | |
| 2007 | 40.3013 | 39.4591 | |
| II period | 2008 | 36.3873 | 35.6034 |
| 2009 | 36.5995 | 33.7905 | |
| 2010 | 41.2125 | 38.1665 | |
| 2011 | 42.3502 | 39.2228 | |
| 2012 | 39.0837 | 36.0018 | |
| 2013 | 40.6166 | 37.0052 |
The measures of verification and matching of single equation cost-effectiveness models
| Specification | The Measurements of model fit and verification | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 | A standard error of estimation | F statistics | p | |
| The first period | 0.96524 | 0.34206 | 41.649 | 0.00648 |
| The second period | 0.97612 | 0.28694 | 27.252 | 0.03560 |