Micro and small enterprise survival in contexts of poverty: Evidence from Peru

This study analyses the determinants of micro and small enterprise survival in a high-poverty setting, drawing on a longitudinal cohort of 1,861 firms registered under REMYPE in Cajamarca province, Peru, where monetary poverty affects 44.5% of the population (2015–2024). Using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression, we assess how firm size, geographic location, and economic sector shape closure risk over time. Firm size is the dominant determinant: microenterprises face a substantially higher closure risk than small enterprises, a gap that persists despite REMYPE benefits. Geographic location shows no significant effect, while the economic sector exerts a substantial influence, with essential services proving more resilient than discretionary ones. Closures cluster in the post-pandemic period rather than during the pandemic, consistent with a delayed crisis. The findings indicate that, under structural poverty, standard support mechanisms are insufficient and differentiated, size- and sector-sensitive policies are required.