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Examining the effect of credit on monetary policy with Markov regime switching: Evidence from Turkey Cover

Examining the effect of credit on monetary policy with Markov regime switching: Evidence from Turkey

By: Ali İlhan  
Open Access
|Jan 2023

Abstract

This paper analyses the effect of credit on monetary policy responses for different regimes in Turkey. To do so, the Taylor rule augmented with the credit gap is estimated by using a Markov regime switching model from January 2006 to December 2019. The empirical findings identify two regimes: the low- and high-interest rate regimes. The prevalence of the former indicates policy authorities’ growth priorities. Furthermore, differing responses across the regimes reflect that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has an asymmetric policy stance. In the low-interest rate regime, the monetary policy only significantly responds to inflation. In the high-interest rate regime, both inflation and credit have significant positive impacts on interest rate setting. This indicates that credit conditions affected the tightening of the monetary policy stance in Turkey despite the use of macroprudential tools after the global financial crisis.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2022.4.4 | Journal eISSN: 2450-0097 | Journal ISSN: 2392-1641
Language: English
Page range: 68 - 87
Submitted on: May 26, 2022
Accepted on: Nov 15, 2022
Published on: Jan 11, 2023
Published by: Poznań University of Economics and Business Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2023 Ali İlhan, published by Poznań University of Economics and Business Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.