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Application of reliability theory and risk management in sustainable agricultural construction infrastructure in high-risk regions Cover

Application of reliability theory and risk management in sustainable agricultural construction infrastructure in high-risk regions

Open Access
|Jul 2026

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1.

Relationship between agricultural production reliability (P) and mean annual agricultural GDP (Y, in million GEL). The trend line indicates a positive correlation r = 0.59 (own research)

Existing agricultural construction infrastructure (National Statistics Office of Georgia, 2024; 2025)

Agricultural construction infrastructureQuantity
Grain and feed silos (Active elevators)39
Cold store facilities387
Storage chambers (Industrial customers served)30
Livestock and poultry slaughterhouses131
Total products stored in elevators (Thousand tons)464.5
Total products stored in cold stores (Thousand tons)340.8

Infrastructure-related factors affecting agricultural system reliability (own research)

Infrastructure elementReliability-related importance
Grain and feed silosSupport the continuity and safety of grain and feed storage.
Cold storage facilitiesReduce losses of perishable products and help maintain product quality.
Storage chambersImprove the efficiency and flexibility of agricultural product storage.
Livestock and poultry slaughterhousesSupport the continuity of processing and supply chain operations.
Irrigation and drainage systemsIncrease resilience to droughts, floods and water-related production risks.

Reliability of agricultural production in Georgia by region 2020–2024 (National Statistics Office of Georgia, 2024; 2026; National Bank of Georgia, 2026; World Bank, 2026; International Monetary Fund, 2026)

#RegionYears
20202021202220232024Sum
1Kakheti
GDP (Million GEL)41.534.639.434.533.1
Dispersion ('000 GEL)06,92.178.424.4
Probability of Event0.10.20.150.20.35
Expected Value01.380.3151.42.946.035
Reliability Index (P) 0.85
2Kvemo (Lower) Kartli
GDP (Million GEL)19.516.414.415.514.1
Dispersion ('000 GEL)03.15.145.417.6
Probability of Event0.10.150.250.250.25
Expected Value00.4651.27511.354.09
Reliability Index (P) 0.79
3Imereti (Western Georgia)
GDP (Million GEL)15.713.211.211911.4
Dispersion ('000 GEL)02.54.53.84.315.1
Probability of Event0.10.150.250.250.25
Expected Value00.3751.1250.951.0753.525
Reliability Index (P) 0.78
4Mtskheta-Mtianeti (Eastern Georgia)
GDP (Million GEL)8.28.97.66.95,4
Dispersion ('000 GEL)0.701.323.57.5
Probability of Event0.150.10.20.250.3
Expected Value0.10500,260.51.051.915
Reliability Index (P) 0.78
5Shida (Inner) Kartli (Eastern Georgia)
GDP (Million GEL)2623.720.618.616.9
Dispersion ('000 GEL)02.35.47.49.124.2
Probability of Event0.10.150.20.250.3
Expected Value00.3451.081.852.736.005
Reliability Index (P) 0.77
6Samtskhe-Javakheti (Southern Georgia)
GDP (Million GEL)22.520.92422.617.7
Dispersion ('000 GEL)1.53.101.46.312.3
Probability of Event0.150.250.10.150.35
Expected Value0.2250,77500,212,2053,415
Reliability Index (P) 0,86
7Racha-Lechkhumi and Kvemo (Lower) Svaneti (Northwestern Georgia)
GDP (Million GEL)2014,116,914,412,1
Dispersion ('000 GEL)05,93,15,67,922,5
Probability of Event0,10,20,150,20,35
Expected Value01.180.4651.122.7655.53
Reliability Index (P) 0.72
8Samegrelo (Western Georgia)
GDP (Million GEL)18.317.614.613.313.1
Dispersion ('000 GEL)00.73.755.214.6
Probability of Event0.10.150,20.250,3
Expected Value00.1050.741.251.560.655
Reliability Index (P) 0.8
9Guria (Western Georgia)
GDP (Million GEL)18.417.117.214.715.3
Dispersion ('000 GEL)01.31.23.73.19.3
Probability of Event0.10.20.150.250.3
Expected Value00.260.180.9250.932.295
Reliability Index (P) 0.88
10Adjara
GDP (Million GEL)5.14,83.73.72,5
Dispersion ('000 GEL)00.31.41.42.65.7
Probability of Event0.10.150,20.250,3
Expected Value00,0450,280.350,781.455
Reliability Index (P) 0,71
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17512/bozpe.2026.15.11 | Journal eISSN: 2544-963X | Journal ISSN: 2299-8535
Language: English
Published on: Jul 13, 2026
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2026 Martin Vartanov, Nana Beraia, Konstantine Bziava, Marina Shogiradze, published by Technical University in Czestochowa
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License.

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