Fig. 1.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philips-Perron test results
| Variables | Augmented Dickey-Fuller | Philips-Perron | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| level | first difference | level | first difference | |
| Agro-based employment | –0.926153 (0.7679) | –5.338468*** (0.0001) | –0.926153 (0.7679) | –5.333959*** (0.0001) |
| Import competition | –6.209607*** (0.0000) | –8.824391*** (0.0000) | –6.046655*** (0.0000) | –22.62678*** (0.0000) |
| Export competition | –3.838764*** (0.0059) | –4.247444*** (0.0028) | –3.761789*** (0.0072) | –17.09377*** (0.0000) |
| The real unit cost of labour | –1.724242 (0.4099) | –3.008093** (0.0442) | –1.852611 (0.3494) | –3.415431*** (0.0171) |
| The real unit cost of capital | –2.861429* (0.0603) | –3.062900** (0.0397) | –3.178403** (0.0299) | –5.905108*** (0.0000) |
| Capital stock | –3.561595** (0.0119) | –10.28647*** (0.0000) | –3.615875** (0.0104) | –10.28647*** (0.0000) |
| Trade openness | –4.325298*** (0.0016) | –7.985181*** (0.0000) | –4.325298*** (0.0016) | –8.839291*** (0.0000) |
| Inflation | –3.844590*** (0.0059) | –7.293581*** (0.0000) | –3.319971** (0.0215) | –7.254398*** (0.0000) |
| Government expenditure | –1.955653 (0.3042) | –7.975877*** (0.0000) | –1.821846 (0.3642) | –8.215169*** (0.0000) |
| GDP | –0.246311 (0.9229) | –4.695348*** (0.0006) | –0.313039 (0.9129) | –4.685923*** (0.0006) |
| Term of trade | –1.377002 (0.5822) | –5.424852*** (0.0001) | –1.416345 (0.5632) | –5.418927*** (0.0001) |
| Exchange rate | –2.542989 (0.1147) | –4.990801*** (0.0003) | –4.581614*** (0.0008) | –4.969465*** (0.0003) |
| Trade change | –5.152617*** (0.0002) | –12.76739*** (0.0000) | –5.203911*** (0.0001) | –18.99583*** (0.0000) |
Effect of import competition on agro-based manufacturing employment
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agro-based employment (−1) | 0.720135 | 0.112151 | 6.421145 |
| Import competition | –0.519281** | 0.196405 | –2.643927 |
| Export competition | 0.061332** | 0.022390 | 2.739248 |
| Capital stock | 0.331159** | 0.136306 | 2.429528 |
| The real unit cost of capital | –12.96077*** | 3.913717 | –3.311627 |
| The real unit cost of labour | –13.13876*** | 3.858474 | –3.405171 |
| The real unit cost of labour (−1) | 1.165559 | 1.623533 | 0.717915 |
| Trade openness | –2.904632*** | 0.935867 | –3.103679 |
| Trade openness (−1) | 1.283825 | 0.842004 | 1.524725 |
| Government expenditure | 0.130835 | 0.329177 | 0.397462 |
| Inflation | 2.307890*** | 0.766158 | 3.012291 |
| Constant | 7.713598 | 9.254997 | 0.833452 |
| R-square | 0.743974 | ||
| Adjusted R-Square | 0.717178 | ||
| S.E. of regression | 1.031591 | ||
| Sum of square resid | 24.47616 | ||
| Log-likelihood | –43.40400 | ||
| F-statistic | 35.22912 | ||
| Prob(F-statistic) | 0.000000 | ||
Effects of terms of trade on agro-based manufacturing employment
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agro-based employment (−1) | –0.096561 | 0.104709 | –0.922191 |
| Term of trade | 1.616888*** | 0.554821 | 2.914251 |
| Trade change | 0.011922*** | 0.002069 | 5.761680 |
| GDP | 0.612010*** | 0.108197 | 5.656433 |
| Loan to the manufacturing sector | 1.071373 | 1.574155 | 0.680602 |
| Exchange rate | –0.394448*** | 0.121349 | –3.250525 |
| Exchange rate (−1) | –0.369479* | 0.216776 | –1.704426 |
| Constant | –10.05131*** | 2.101823 | –4.782184 |
| R-square | 0.757691 | ||
| Adjusted R-Square | 0.725053 | ||
| S.E. of regression | 0.430910 | ||
| Sum of square resid | 5.199142 | ||
| Log-likelihood | –16.29290 | ||
| F-statistic | 11.29815 | ||
| Prob(F-statistic) | 0.000002 | ||