A New Standardized Type Drought Indicators Based Hybrid Procedure for Strengthening Drought Monitoring System

MONTHS	STATISTICS	BADIN (BD)			NAWABSHAH (NS)			KHANPUR (KP)
MONTHS	STATISTICS	PRE	MAX T	MIN T	PRE	MAX T	MIN T	PRE	MAX T	MIN T
Jan	Avg.	1.4	25.2	9.7	2.1	24.3	6.3	4.1	21.4	4.8
	Std.	3.6	0.9	1.5	5.2	0.9	1.5	8.9	1.0	1.6
	Kurtosis	10.7	–0.3	0.6	14.4	0.1	–0.2	16.2	0.1	0.5
Feb	Avg.	4.8	28.3	12.4	3.5	27.6	8.8	8.2	24.3	7.8
	Std.	11.3	1.5	1.9	8.3	1.7	1.9	11.8	1.7	2.0
	Kurtosis	15.0	–0.2	0.4	10.7	–0.1	0.8	4.9	–0.1	1.2
Mar	Avg.	0.9	33.7	17.6	2.9	33.7	14.3	6.2	30.0	13.3
	Std.	2.4	1.7	1.5	6.1	2.1	1.0	9.8	2.0	1.6
	Kurtosis	11.0	–0.3	2.0	21.4	–0.1	0.5	4.6	–0.1	0.0
Apr	Avg.	1.7	38.0	22.3	3.1	40.1	19.9	6.2	37.3	19.1
	Std.	5.2	1.4	1.0	7.9	1.8	1.3	10.6	1.8	2.0
	Kurtosis	14.7	0.6	–0.3	11.3	0.0	–0.5	10.9	–0.3	–0.7
May	Avg.	4.0	39.5	25.8	2.0	44.1	24.8	4.8	41.9	24.6
	Std.	24.0	1.0	0.8	5.7	1.5	1.0	8.1	1.6	2.1
	Kurtosis	46.0	0.0	0.6	17.3	0.9	0.0	5.1	–0.2	–0.7
Jun	Avg.	11.4	38.1	27.7	6.8	43.8	27.5	5.5	42.3	27.5
	Std.	22.4	0.9	0.4	14.1	1.1	0.7	9.9	1.0	1.4
	Kurtosis	12.4	1.7	2.5	6.2	–0.8	0.5	10.2	–0.4	0.6
Jul	Avg.	62.6	35.0	27.1	49.5	40.7	27.4	27.0	39.6	27.6
	Std.	73.4	1.0	0.4	64.2	1.4	0.7	35.5	1.1	1.3
	Kurtosis	1.5	–0.2	0.0	5.3	0.6	0.3	4.8	1.5	2.7
Aug	Avg.	94.3	33.4	26.1	49.7	38.8	26.1	40.9	38.0	26.4
	Std.	102.9	1.0	0.5	63.0	1.4	0.8	68.2	1.0	1.5
	Kurtosis	2.7	–0.3	–0.2	3.4	0.8	2.9	6.3	0.0	2.7
Sep	Avg.	38.2	34.2	25.0	25.1	38.7	24.0	20.9	36.7	23.5
	Std.	84.3	1.1	0.7	65.1	1.6	1.1	51.7	1.0	1.8
	Kurtosis	8.1	0.2	–0.4	15.4	3.6	1.8	16.9	–0.1	2.7
Oct	Avg.	6.4	35.3	22.1	3.5	37.5	18.6	1.8	34.8	17.2
	Std.	21.5	1.0	1.2	11.6	1.3	1.7	7.1	0.8	2.1
	Kurtosis	18.2	0.4	–0.3	15.9	1.0	0.0	21.4	–0.1	1.9
Nov	Avg.	2.2	31.5	16.5	0.9	31.9	12.6	0.4	29.7	10.9
	Std.	6.9	1.0	1.5	3.7	1.9	1.7	1.2	1.0	1.8
	Kurtosis	15.6	0.3	1.8	37.1	18.8	2.5	14.5	1.2	0.4
Dec	Avg.	1.0	26.7	11.4	3.0	26.1	8.0	3.9	23.8	6.2
	Std.	2.7	1.1	1.6	9.0	1.1	1.4	12.4	1.2	1.7
	Kurtosis	14.9	0.2	0.1	15.4	–0.3	0.8	29.9	0.0	0.7

Table 2

BIC Values for 12 CGMD for SPI, SPEI and SPTI.

INDEX	SCALES	BADIN	NAWABSHAH	KHANPUR
SPI	1	–5505.72	–4329.87	–623.88
	3	–3271.21	–3330.55	–3947.69
	6	–5612.63	–5355.59	–5540.46
	9	–6560.43	–5908.35	–5932.45
	12	–6685.60	–6151.64	–6129.32
	24	–6893.84	–6579.39	–6499.06
SPEI	1	–5818.03	–5873.33	–5831.03
	3	–6762.69	–6879.15	–6830.68
	6	–7135.43	–7316.96	–7226.22
	9	–7195.26	–7255.91	–7126.11
	12	–7084.73	–6868.48	–6652.28
	24	–7324.87	–7206.16	–7023.16
SPTI	1	–2957.43	–630.93	–1405.21
	3	–1480.09	–1006.22	–1439.65
	6	–1525.45	–1302.26	–1544.35
	9	–2262.77	–1939.43	–1905.43
	12	–2595.84	–2212.02	–2098.22
	24	–2930.93	–2660.30	–2548.93

Density plots of 12-CGMD for Badin station.

*Density plots of 12-CGMD* for Khanpur station.

*Density plots of 12-CGMD* for Nawabshah station.

Percentage of variations in PCs in different months at different time-scales.

Table 3

Eigen values for timescales (1,3,6) for different components of PCA.

TS	STNS.	CS	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
1	BD	C1	2.64	2.66	2.24	2.59	2.77	2.73	2.81	2.77	2.75	2.80	2.73	2.68
		C2	0.36	0.34	0.76	0.41	0.23	0.27	0.19	0.23	0.25	0.20	0.27	0.32
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	KP	C1	2.70	2.81	2.63	2.75	2.63	2.63	2.71	2.73	2.68	2.77	2.57	2.74
		C2	0.30	0.18	0.37	0.25	0.37	0.37	0.29	0.27	0.32	0.23	0.43	0.26
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	NS	C1	2.74	2.74	2.54	2.45	2.34	2.68	2.66	2.75	2.71	2.85	2.23	2.79
		C2	0.26	0.26	0.46	0.55	0.66	0.32	0.34	0.25	0.29	0.15	0.77	0.21
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	BD	C1	2.60	2.58	2.70	2.74	2.88	2.88	2.87	2.85	2.86	2.75	2.58	2.68
		C2	0.40	0.42	0.30	0.26	0.12	0.12	0.13	0.15	0.14	0.25	0.42	0.32
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	KP	C1	2.80	2.75	2.69	2.66	2.70	2.77	2.75	2.80	2.77	2.79	2.72	2.81
		C2	0.19	0.24	0.31	0.34	0.30	0.23	0.25	0.20	0.23	0.21	0.28	0.19
		C3	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	NS	C1	2.65	2.52	2.45	2.54	2.68	2.80	2.79	2.74	2.77	2.71	2.61	2.79
		C2	0.35	0.48	0.54	0.46	0.32	0.20	0.21	0.26	0.23	0.29	0.39	0.21
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
6	BD	C1	2.66	2.89	2.93	2.93	2.93	2.94	2.95	2.95	2.92	2.66	2.61	2.66
		C2	0.33	0.11	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.08	0.33	0.39	0.33
		C3	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01
	KP	C1	2.73	2.76	2.80	2.79	2.78	2.74	2.69	2.76	2.71	2.58	2.71	2.80
		C2	0.25	0.23	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.20	0.22	0.19	0.23	0.34	0.22	0.18
		C3	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.06	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.08	0.07	0.02
	NS	C1	2.49	2.74	2.84	2.84	2.84	2.85	2.87	2.88	2.80	2.67	2.60	2.55
		C2	0.50	0.26	0.16	0.16	0.16	0.15	0.13	0.11	0.20	0.33	0.39	0.44
		C3	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01

Table 4

Eigen values for timescales (9,12,24) for different components of PCA.

TS	STNS.	CS	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
9	BD	C1	2.93	2.93	2.93	2.94	2.95	2.96	2.96	2.96	2.88	2.65	2.86	2.93
		C2	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.12	0.34	0.14	0.07
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00
	KP	C1	1.71	1.98	2.03	1.83	1.44	1.69	1.78	1.87	1.76	2.03	1.81	1.54
		C2	0.99	0.95	0.92	0.96	0.94	0.91	0.94	0.85	0.93	0.73	0.96	1.07
		C3	0.30	0.07	0.04	0.21	0.63	0.40	0.28	0.28	0.31	0.24	0.23	0.39
	NS	C1	2.88	2.82	2.81	2.85	2.92	2.92	2.92	2.89	2.83	2.65	2.81	2.90
		C2	0.12	0.18	0.19	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.11	0.17	0.34	0.19	0.10
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00
	BD	C1	2.93	2.93	2.93	2.94	2.95	2.96	2.96	2.96	2.88	2.65	2.86	2.93
		C2	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.12	0.34	0.14	0.07
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00
	KP	C1	1.71	1.98	2.03	1.83	1.44	1.69	1.78	1.87	1.76	2.03	1.81	1.54
		C2	0.99	0.95	0.92	0.96	0.94	0.91	0.94	0.85	0.93	0.73	0.96	1.07
		C3	0.30	0.07	0.04	0.21	0.63	0.40	0.28	0.28	0.31	0.24	0.23	0.39
	NS	C1	2.88	2.82	2.81	2.85	2.92	2.92	2.92	2.89	2.83	2.65	2.81	2.90
		C2	0.12	0.18	0.19	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.11	0.17	0.34	0.19	0.10
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00
12	BD	C1	2.95	2.96	2.96	2.96	2.96	2.96	2.96	2.96	2.94	2.95	2.95	2.95
		C2	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	KP	C1	2.83	2.82	2.81	2.80	2.80	2.81	2.80	2.81	2.80	2.84	2.83	2.83
		C2	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.19	0.19	0.18	0.19	0.18	0.19	0.15	0.16	0.16
		C3	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
	NS	C1	2.91	2.91	2.91	2.91	2.89	2.89	2.90	2.89	2.92	2.93	2.92	2.92
		C2	0.08	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.10	0.11	0.09	0.11	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07
		C3	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
24	BD	C1	2.93	2.93	2.93	2.93	2.94	2.94	2.94	2.93	2.91	2.92	2.93	2.93
		C2	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.07
		C3	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
	KP	C1	2.64	2.61	2.61	2.63	2.63	2.72	2.75	2.74	2.76	2.67	2.64	2.62
		C2	0.35	0.38	0.38	0.36	0.36	0.27	0.24	0.25	0.24	0.33	0.35	0.37
		C3	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
	NS	C1	2.88	2.88	2.88	2.88	2.87	2.88	2.88	2.87	2.87	2.87	2.87	2.87
		C2	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.12	0.12
		C3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Correlations of SMSDI with SPI, SPEI and SPTI at Badin and Khanpur.

Correlations of SMSDI with SPI, SPEI and SPTI at Nawabshah station.

Temporal plots of SMSDI, SPI, SPEI and SPTI (Month wise).

Temporal plots of SMSDI, SPI, SPEI and SPTI (Year wise).

Table 5

Drought classifications.

SR. NO.	RANGE OF SDIS AND SMSDI	CATEGORIES
1.	2.00 and above	Extremely Wet
2.	1.50 to 1.99	Very Wet
3.	1.00 to 1.49	Moderate Wet
4.	–0.99 to 0.99	Near Normal
5.	–1.00 to –1.49	Moderate Drought
6.	–1.50 to –1.99	Severe Drought
7.	–2.00 and less	Extremely Drought

Table 6

Counts of various drought categories at Badin station.

TIMESCALES	CATEGORY	SPI		SPEI		SPTI		SMSDI
TIMESCALES	CATEGORY	COUNT	%AGE	COUNT	%AGE	COUNT	%AGE	COUNT	%AGE
1	ND	469	83.16	353	62.59	469	83.16	458	81.21
	ED	0	0.00	57	10.11	0	0.00	0	0.00
	SD	0	0.00	67	11.88	0	0.00	12	2.13
	MD	0	0.00	53	9.40	0	0.00	12	2.13
	MW	44	7.80	12	2.13	45	7.98	33	5.85
	SW	43	7.62	11	1.95	43	7.62	15	2.66
	EW	7	1.24	11	1.95	7	1.24	34	6.03
3	ND	447	79.54	406	72.24	449	79.61	422	74.82
	ED	0	0.00	0	0.00	0	0.00	3	0.53
	SD	0	0.00	36	6.41	0	0.00	14	2.48
	MD	0	0.00	67	11.92	0	0.00	30	5.32
	MW	71	12.63	20	3.56	71	12.59	50	8.87
	SW	40	7.12	19	3.38	37	6.56	21	3.72
	EW	4	0.71	14	2.49	5	0.89	22	3.90
6	ND	371	66.37	410	73.35	361	64.58	394	70.48
	ED	0	0.00	2	0.36	0	0.00	6	1.07
	SD	0	0.00	19	3.40	0	0.00	19	3.40
	MD	90	16.10	51	9.12	103	18.43	50	8.94
	MW	68	12.16	47	8.41	69	12.34	48	8.59
	SW	25	4.47	18	3.22	21	3.76	23	4.11
	EW	5	0.89	12	2.15	5	0.89	19	3.40
9	ND	329	59.17	413	74.28	335	60.25	394	70.86
	ED	69	12.41	6	1.08	68	12.23	8	1.44
	SD	64	11.51	18	3.24	64	11.51	29	5.22
	MD	60	10.79	29	5.22	55	9.89	53	9.53
	MW	18	3.24	54	9.71	18	3.24	35	6.29
	SW	9	1.62	24	4.32	9	1.62	23	4.14
	EW	7	1.26	12	2.16	7	1.26	14	2.52
12	ND	404	73.06	407	73.60	403	72.88	375	67.81
	ED	0	0.00	0	0.00	0	0.00	0	0.00
	SD	20	3.62	3	0.54	20	3.62	21	3.80
	MD	71	12.84	56	10.13	71	12.84	77	13.92
	MW	26	4.70	50	9.04	27	4.88	42	7.59
	SW	21	3.80	14	2.53	21	3.80	15	2.71
	EW	11	1.99	23	4.16	11	1.99	23	4.16
24	ND	350	64.70	402	72.69	347	62.75	355	64.20
	ED	0	0.00	0	0.00	0	0.00	0	0.00
	SD	2	0.37	32	5.79	21	3.80	32	5.79
	MD	115	21.26	22	3.98	98	17.72	76	13.74
	MW	34	6.28	39	7.05	40	7.23	31	5.61
	SW	7	1.29	24	4.34	12	2.17	23	4.16
	EW	32	5.91	22	3.98	22	3.98	24	4.34

Histograms of counts of various drought classes under SMSDI, SPI, SPEI and SPTI.

References

Authors

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.47 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 119 - 140

Submitted on: Mar 10, 2022

Accepted on: Mar 10, 2022

Published on: Mar 28, 2022

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

Climate Change,

Drought monitoring,

Water management research,

Correlation

© 2022 Muhammad Asif Khan, Xiang Zhang, Zulfiqar Ali, He Jiang, Muhammad Ismail, Sadia Qamar, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 74 (2022): Issue 1

A New Standardized Type Drought Indicators Based Hybrid Procedure for Strengthening Drought Monitoring System

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Table 1

Figure 2

Table 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Table 3

Table 4

Figure 9

Figure 10

Figure 11

Figure 12

Table 5

Table 6

Figure 13

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