Figure 1
An example of an Unsub prediction for an institution with a US$770,355 big deal
Figure 2
Proportion of current usage covered in the first year after cancellation: open access, aggregator access and post-cancellation access. (No deduplication between aggregator and PCA)
Figure 3
Proportion of current usage covered by open access, aggregator access and post-cancellation access in years one and five
Figure 4
Usage change by year of publication
Figure 5
Usage from PCA titles declines to about 50% of total usage within four years and disappears entirely within ten. Taking into account other forms of access including aggregator and open access, PCA access declines entirely within seven years and lost access is almost entirely covered by aggregator and open access
Figure 6
PCA value grid. This example models the value of post-cancellation access for a single library’s package from a single publisher assuming a 75% cut in spending to optimal titles based on an Unsub model. It leverages data from the 2020 JR5 (usage by year of publication) and historical package costs to estimate the proportion of usage uniquely covered by PCA rights over a ten-year period. The purple bars indicate the shrinking percentage of total usage covered by the ten years of rights included in the model (2011–2020). As the year of usage increases, the gap between the current year and the end of post-cancellation access grows, as illustrated by the light yellow bars which indicate the number of years in the growing gap
Figure 7(a)
This model projects unique post-cancellation access usage across year of publication by percentage and expected number of uses
Figure 7(b)
Expanding on Figure 7(a), this model estimates dollar values for each year of PCA usage, based on the 2020 package cost per use
Figure 8
Estimated projected PCA value by year of publication/purchase and overall