Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Applying Block Bootstrap Methods in Silver Prices Forecasting Cover

Applying Block Bootstrap Methods in Silver Prices Forecasting

By: Łukasz Sroka  
Open Access
|Sep 2022

Abstract

This article focuses on the presentation of the forecasting possibilities of bootstrap methods used to predict prices based on time series. The aim of the paper was to examine the quality of the forecasts made with the methods for silver futures contracts. In order to achieve the intended goal, ex-post and ex-ante errors for the forecasts prepared by applying bootstrap methods were analysed. The forecasts were calculated using the daily closing prices of the silver futures contracts for the period from 01/07/2020 to 27/03/2022 The analysis showed that the quality of forecasts for each of the presented methods is at a satisfactory level. Moreover, the forecasts calculated using the bootstrap methods were closer to the real performance of the silver futures contracts than the forecasts obtained using the ARMA model (1,1). In addition, it was shown that the forecasts made with the tapered block bootstrap method are less affected by forecast errors than the other analysed methods.

Language: English
Page range: 15 - 29
Published on: Sep 12, 2022
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2022 Łukasz Sroka, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License.