Forecasting Parameters of Farm Development At the Regional Level Using the STELLA Program

Savka, Mariia; Cherneviy, Yurii; Yatsiv, Ihor; Balaniuk, Ivan; Shelenko, Diana; Yatsiv, Svitlana

doi:10.15544/mts.2022.22

Abstract

Given the importance of forecasting the production of agricultural products by farms, the study created an original model in the STELLA program, which identified the impact on the number of agricultural enterprises, land area and fertilizers. The created model showed that in Ivano-Frankivsk region by 2030 with the stabilization of the number of agricultural enterprises, land area and the increase in mineral fertilizers per hectare of sown area may increase agricultural production by farms. This will help solve important issues for the region and the state in general, related to strengthening food security, ensuring the social development of rural areas. The prognostic changes in the volume of agricultural production determined by the STELLA program by farms of the region until 2030 can be the basis for the development of a promising model of the agricultural production system at the regional level.

References

Balali, H., Viaggi, D. (2015). Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios. // Water, 7:5258–5271. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7105258
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Balaniuk, I., Kozak, I., Shelenko, D., Balaniuk, S., Kozak-Balaniuk, I. (2019). Forecasting of Gross Agricultural Output of Agrarian Enterprises of Ukraine: Case Study with STELLA Software. // Economic Studies (Ikonomicheski Izsledvania), 28(5):148–163.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bina, A., Bruno, D. (2019). Group farming in France: Why do some regions have more cooperative ventures than others? // Environment and Planning. A, Economy and Space, 51 (3):781-804.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Blahun, I.S., Blahun, I.I. (2020). The Relationship Between World and Local Stock Indices. // Montenegrin Journal of Economics. 16(1):55-67. DOI10.14254/1800-5845/2020.16-1.4 (appeal date 07.12.2021).
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bertalanffy, L. (1976). General System Theory. New York: George Braziller. https://monoskop.org/images/7/77/Von_Bertalanffy_Ludwig_General_System_Theory_1968.pdf (appeal date 14.08.2021).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Clark, J.K., Munroe, D.K., Mansfield, B. (2010). What counts as farming: how classification limits regionalization of the food system. // Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 3(2): 245–259. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsq018. (Appeal date 02.05.2020).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Droždz, J., Vitunskienė, V. (2021). Motives of economic decisions of Lithuanian agricultural entities to deepen farm specialization. // Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development. 21 (4): 211-222.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Falconnier, G.N., Descheemaeker, K., Traore, B., Bayoko, A., Giller, K.E. (2018). Agricultural intensification and policy interventions: Exploring plausible futures for smallholder farmers in Southern Mali. // Land Use Policy, 70: 623-634. (Appeal date 04.10.2021).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Farid, M.F., Siddiqui, B.N., Tareen, W.-Ul-H., Shah, A.S.A., Yousaf, A. (2021). Investigating the efficiency of extension services in promoting dairy farming in Pakistan. // Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development. 21 (1): 273-280.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Forester, Dzh. (2003). World Dynamics Moscow. Moscow: АSТ; St. Petersburg: Теrra Fantastica, 2003. 379. http://www.vixri.com/d/Forrester%20Dzh.%20_Mirovaja%20dinamika.pdf (appeal date 28.05.2021).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Glazyrin, V.L., Shkrabyk, I.V., Sakhatskyi, M.P., Sakhatskyi, P.M. (2018). Marketing aspects of urban planning and agglomeration development. Conference Meeting32 nd International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development (ESD). Location Odessa, Ukraine. Economic and social development. Book Series International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development. Jun 21-22: 253-261.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hussayn, J.A., Gulak, D.M., Aboaba, K.O., Keshinro, O.O. (2020). Effects of agricultural commercialization on poverty status of smallholder cassava farming households in Oyo State, Nigeria. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development. 20 (4): 255-265.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hnatyshyn, L. (2012). Farms in the organizational system of agricultural production. Agrarian economy. 5(1–2): 26–31.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Kozak, I., Parpan, V. (2009). Ecological modelling using STELLA program. Ivano-Frankivsk: Plai.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Kuznyak, B. (2019). Problems of development of farms and their servicing cooperatives in Ukraine. // Economy of Ukraine. 5: 68-78.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Petrunenko, Ia, Pohrishchuk, O., Plotnikova, M., Zolotnytska, Yu., Dligach, A. (2021). Development of Small Farms in the Agro-Industrial Complex. // International Journal of Computer Science and Network Security, 21(3): 287-294.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Popescu, A., Cărătuș Stanciu M. (2021). Farm structure in animal sector of Romania. // Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development. 21 (4): 445-458.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Richmond, B. (2001). An Introduction to Systems Thinking. High Performance Systems, Inc, STELLA. https://www.colorado.edu/center/mortenson/sites/default/files/attached-files/stella_ist_0.pdf (appeal date 10.04.2021).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Savka, M.V. (2020). Organizational and economic substantiation of development of farms in the region. Thesis for the degree of the Doctor of Philosophy 05 Social and behavioral sciences in the specialty 051 Economy”. Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University – Lviv National Agrarian University. 243 p.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shelenko, D., Balaniuk, I., Sas, L., Malik, M., Matkovskyi, P., Levandivskyi, O., Humeniuk, М. (2021). Forecasting of net profit and the area of land of private enterprises. // Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development. 43(4): 500-516. –https://ejournals.vdu.lt/index.php/mtsrbid/article/view/2597 (appeal date 27.12.2021).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shpykuliak, O., Bilokinna, I. (2019). “Green” cooperatives in the formation of an institutional mechanism of evelopment of alternative power engineering in the agrarian sector of the economy. // Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, No. 2. (5): 249–255.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Svynous, I.V., Havryk, O.Yu., Byba, V.A. (2020). Theoretical and methodological foundations of creation and functioning of farms. // Innovative Economy. 1-2: 65-72.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sokolovska, Z.M. (2018). Modeling of market strategies of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty. Problems of the economy. 1(35): 368–377
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Spaskyi, H.V. (2019). Development of family farms in the region. // Economics of agro-industrial complex. 5: 49–59.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Stupen, N., Dudych, L., Dudych, H. (2020). Prospects for farming development in Ukraine. // Agrarian Economy. 13(1-2): 95-100.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yakubiv, V., Panukhnyk, O., Shults, S., Maksymiv, Y., Hryhoruk, I., Popadynets, N., Bilyk, R., Fedotova, Y., Bilyk, I. (2019). Application of Economic and Legal Instruments at the Stage of Transition to Bioeconomy. // Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Software and Systems Engineering. AHFE Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing. Springer Nature Switzerland. In: Ahram T. (eds), 965: 656–666.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zhurakovska, I.V., Sydorenko, R.V. Shmatkovska, T.O., Brodska, I.I. (2020). Factors of influence on employment in small and medium-sized business in Ukraine. // Financial and credit activity-problems of theory and practice, 1(32): 109-119.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Forecasting Parameters of Farm Development At the Regional Level Using the STELLA Program

Abstract

Paradigm

My account