Abstract
Genetic gain and diversity, expressed by status number, of seed crops from a clonal seed orchard of Pinus thunbergii were estimated considering selection, fertility variation and pollen contamination, and compared for different management alternatives (selective harvest, genetic thinning and combination of both options). Management variables included the proportion of clones left after selective harvest and/or genetic thinning. The impact on genetic gain and diversity of seed crops was quantified as a function of the quantity and quality of gene flow from outside the seed orchard. Genetic gain varied with the proportion of selected or thinned clones. Genetic thinning by means of truncation selection of clones resulted in a large decrease in status number, which was accompanied by greater genetic gain than achieved by selective harvest alone. As expected, gene flow from outside the seed orchard greatly increased status number of the seed crop at higher rates of pollen contamination under all management options. The formulae and results of the present study could be used for identifying favorable selection intensity and alternatives for orchard management.