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The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models Cover

The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models

Open Access
|Sep 2015

Abstract

Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking), extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI) in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI). Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/sbe-2015-0023 | Journal eISSN: 2344-5416 | Journal ISSN: 1842-4120
Language: English
Page range: 99 - 113
Published on: Sep 25, 2015
Published by: Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 3 issues per year

© 2015 Yazdan Naghdi, Soheila Kaghazian, published by Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.