Abstract
The paper focuses on the variation of institutional confidence in the Baltic countries. Within of framework of qualitative comparative framework, it employs a historical approach to detect causes of divergence of trust in rule of law institutions between Estonia vis-à-vis other two Baltic states. While it observes a range of variables that could affect the differences, it emphasises the role of political leadership during critical junctures, which might explain both why Estonia forged ahead at the outset of the post-communist transformation and most recent positive developments in the Baltic countries since the financial crisis in 2008–2010.