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Testing the Performance of Cubic Splines and Nelson-Siegel Model for Estimating the Zero-coupon Yield Curve Cover

Testing the Performance of Cubic Splines and Nelson-Siegel Model for Estimating the Zero-coupon Yield Curve

By: Eva Lorenčič  
Open Access
|Jun 2016

Abstract

Understanding the relationship between interest rates and term to maturity of securities is a prerequisite for developing financial theory and evaluating whether it holds up in the real world; therefore, such an understanding lies at the heart of monetary and financial economics. Accurately fitting the term structure of interest rates is the backbone of a smoothly functioning financial market, which is why the testing of various models for estimating and predicting the term structure of interest rates is an important topic in finance that has received considerable attention for many decades. In this paper, we empirically contrast the performance of cubic splines and the Nelson-Siegel model by estimating the zero-coupon yields of Austrian government bonds. The main conclusion that can be drawn from the results of the calculations is that the Nelson-Siegel model outperforms cubic splines at the short end of the yield curve (up to 2 years), whereas for medium-term maturities (2 to 10 years) the fitting performance of both models is comparable.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ngoe-2016-0011 | Journal eISSN: 2385-8052 | Journal ISSN: 0547-3101
Language: English
Page range: 42 - 50
Submitted on: Dec 1, 2015
Accepted on: Mar 1, 2016
Published on: Jun 24, 2016
Published by: University of Maribor
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2016 Eva Lorenčič, published by University of Maribor
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.