Simplified Probabilistic Analysis of Settlement of Cyclically Loaded Soil Stratum by Point Estimate Method

The paper deals with the probabilistic analysis of the settlement of a non-cohesive soil layer subjected to cyclic loading. Originally, the settlement assessment is based on a deterministic compaction model, which requires integration of a set of differential equations. However, with the use of the Bessel functions, the settlement of a soil stratum can be calculated by a simplified algorithm. The compaction model parameters were determined for soil samples taken from subsoil near the Izmit Bay, Turkey. The computations were performed for various sets of random variables. The point estimate method was applied, and the results were verified by the Monte Carlo method. The outcome leads to a conclusion that can be useful in the prediction of soil settlement under seismic loading.