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An Analysis of Conditional Dependencies of Covariance Matrices for Economic Processes in Selected EU Countries Cover

An Analysis of Conditional Dependencies of Covariance Matrices for Economic Processes in Selected EU Countries

Open Access
|Apr 2017

Abstract

The paper looks at the issues related to the research on and assessment of the contagion effect. Based on several examinations of two selected EU countries, Poland paired with one of the EU member states; it presents the interaction between their economic development. A DCC-GARCH model constructed for the purpose of the study was used to generate a covariance matrix Ht, which enabled the calculation of correlation matrices Rt. The resulting variance vectors were used to present a linear correlation model on which a further analysis of the contagion effect was based. The aim of the study was to test a contagion effect among selected EU countries in the years 2000–2014. The transmission channel under study was the GDP of a selected country. The empirical studies confirmed the existence of the contagion effect between the economic development of the Polish and selected EU economies.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/foli-2016-0029 | Journal eISSN: 1898-0198 | Journal ISSN: 1730-4237
Language: English
Page range: 119 - 134
Submitted on: Dec 5, 2015
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Accepted on: Oct 6, 2016
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Published on: Apr 4, 2017
Published by: University of Szczecin
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 2 issues per year

© 2017 Anna Janiga-Ćmiel, published by University of Szczecin
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.