Cyclical Fluctuations in the Banking Services Market and the Changes in the Situation of Entities from the Financial Services Sector Cover

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Cyclical Fluctuations in the Banking Services Market and the Changes in the Situation of Entities from the Financial Services Sector

Central European Economic Journal

Volume 5 (2018): Issue 52 (January 2018)

By: Robert Skikiewicz and Józef Garczarczyk

Open Access

|Jul 2019

Figures & Tables

Synthetic banking business tendency survey indicator PIKBANK in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business.

Banking business tendency survey indicator BOSF - assessment of the financial situation (diagnostic balance) in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business.

General business climate indicator in section K (WOK_K_1) in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Central Statistical Office.

Indicator of current financial situation of the enterprise in section K (OSF_K_1) in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Central Statistical Office.

Cyclical component of the synthetic banking business tendency survey indicator PIKBANK_c and general business climate indicator in section K WOK_K_1_c in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and the Central Statistical Office.

Cyclical component of the banking business tendency survey indicator BOSF_c and business tendency survey indicator of current financial situation of the enterprise in section K (OSF_K_1_c) in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1Source: Own calculations based on the data from the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and the Central Statistical Office.

Turning points in the time series of cyclical component of the banking business tendency survey indicators in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1

variables	upper turning point	down turning point	upper turning point	down turning point	upper turning point	down turning point	upper turning point
BOSF_c	P:2-2007	T:4-2008	P:3-2010	T:1-2013	P:1-2014	T:2-2015	P:1-2017
PIKBANK_c	P:2-2007	T:4-2008	P:3-2010	T:1-2013	P:2-2014	T:2-2015	P:1-2017

Descriptive statistics for general business climate indicator WOK in section K and divisions 64 and 65 of the services sector in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1

Descriptive statistics	WOK_K_1	WOK_64_1	WOK_65_1	WOK_K_2	WOK_64_2	WOK_65_2
Mean average	29.6	28.4	34.2	29.4	28.0	33.4
Quartile 1	21.4	20.8	25.3	22.2	21.3	25.6
Median	27.7	27.9	32.5	26.3	26.4	32.0
Quartile 3	33.1	33.9	39.6	32.8	34.7	38.6
Standard deviation	12.4	15.7	11.1	12.7	16.4	11.7
Coefficient of variation	42.1%	55.4%	32.3%	43.2%	58.6%	35.1%
Minimum	4.8	-4.6	12.5	1.1	-18.1	6.0
Maximum	60.3	66.4	59.7	59.8	65.1	62.2

Descriptive statistics for indicator of current financial situation of the enterprise OSF in section K and divisions 64 and 65 of the services sector in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1

Descriptive statistics	OSF_K_1	OSF_64_1	OSF_65_1	OSF_K_2	OSF_64_2	OSF_65_2
Mean average	18.5	18.7	21.4	17.9	17.5	21.3
Quartile 1	7.8	8.3	12.3	7.2	6.9	10.1
Median	15.9	15.6	18.2	16.0	15.7	17.1
Quartile 3	25.0	25.4	28.3	24.9	24.6	29.4
Standard deviation	15.6	20.0	12.3	15.5	20.1	13.8
Coefficient of variation	84.1%	107.3%	57.6%	86.6%	114.6%	64.6%
Minimum	-9.5	-27.6	2.1	-9.4	-23.9	-0.5
Maximum	55.3	65.6	49.4	54.3	66.7	49.4

Descriptive statistics for banking business tendency survey indicators in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1

Descriptive statistics	BOSF - assessment of the financial situation (diagnostic balance)	PIKBANK
Mean average	31.1	31.5
Quartile 1	13.6	23.9
Median	35.4	32.2
Quartile 3	49.7	38.7
Standard deviation	25.2	11.0
Coefficient of variation	80.9%	34.7%
Minimum	-37.4	10.5
Maximum	74.5	54.8

Assessment of lead/lag of the banking business tendency survey indicators in relation to business tendency survey indicators of the enterprise in section K based on the turning points analysis in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1

variables		upper turning point	down turning point	upper turning point	down turning point	upper turning point		down turning point	upper turning point

	BOSF_c	P:2-2007	T:4-2008	P:3-2010	T:1-2013	P:1-2014		T:2-2015	P:1-2017
OSF_K_1_c		-2	0	0	0	-1	0	-1
OSF_K_2_c		0	0	-1
OSF_64_1_c		-2	0	0				0
OSF_64_2_c		0	0	0				-1
OSF_65_1_c		1	-7	-4
OSF_65_2_c		-2	-7	-4

variables	PIKBANK_c	P:2-2007	T:4-2008	P:3-2010	T:1-2013	P:2-2014		T:2-2015	P:1-2017

WOK_K_1_c		-2	0	-1	-7
WOK_K_2_c		0	-1	0	-7
WOK_64_1_c		1	-1	-1	-7
WOK_64_2_c		1	-1	-1	-7
WOK_65_1_c		0			-2	-8
WOK_65_2_c		-2

Turning points in the time series of cyclical component of the business tendency survey indicators for section K and its divisions in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1

variables	down turning point	upper turning point	down turning point	upper turning point	down turning point	upper turning point	down turning point	upper turning point
WOK_K_1_c	T:4-2003	P:4-2007	T:4-2008	P:4-2010	T:4-2014
WOK_K_2_c	T:3-2003	P:2-2007	T:1-2009	P:3-2010	T:4-2014
WOK_64_1_c	T:1-2004	P:1-2007	T:1-2009	P:4-2010	T:4-2014
WOK_64_2_c	T:4-2003	P:1-2007	T:1-2009	P:4-2010	T:4-2014
WOK_65_1_c	T:4-2003	P:2-2007			T:3-2013	P:2-2016
WOK_65_2_c	T:3-2003	P:4-2007
OSF_K_1_c		P:4-2007	T:4-2008	P:3-2010	T:1-2013	P:2-2014	T:2-2015	P:2-2017
OSF_K_2_c	T:3-2003	P:2-2007	T:4-2008	P:4-2011
OSF_64_1_c		P:4-2007	T:4-2008	P:3-2010			T:2-2015
OSF_64_2_c		P:2-2007	T:4-2008	P:3-2010			T:3-2015
OSF_65_1_c	T:3-2003	P:1-2007	T:3-2010	P:3-2011
OSF_65_2_c	T:3-2003	P:4-2004	T:3-2010	P:3-2011

Assessment of lead/lag of the banking business tendency survey indicators in relation to business tendency survey indicators of the enterprise in section K based on the cross-correlation analysis in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1

	PIKBANK_c			BOSF_c

variables	Pearson correlation coefficient	lag (+) / lead (-)	variables	Pearson correlation coefficient	lag (+) / lead (-)
WOK_K_1_c	0.7274	-1	OSF_K_1_c	0.6900	-1
WOK_K_2_c	0.7212	-1	OSF_K_2_c	0.7166	-1
WOK_64_1_c	0.7025	-1	OSF_64_1_c	0.6522	-1
WOK_64_2_c	0.7164	0	OSF_64_2_c	0.6303	-1
WOK_65_1_c	0.6381	-1	OSF_65_1_c	0.7362	-2
WOK_65_2_c	0.6531	-2	OSF_65_2_c	0.7002	-2

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ceej-2018-0014 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001

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Language: English

Page range: 118 - 129

Published on: Jul 12, 2019

Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

Keywords:

banking situation,

economic situation in the financial sector,

cyclical fluctuations

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Political economics,

Economic theory, systems and structures,

Microeconomics,

Macroeconomics,

Economic policy

© 2019 Robert Skikiewicz, Józef Garczarczyk, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

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