Figure 1
Null Model for Upward Departures with Districts Nested in Circuits_
| Fixed Effects | b | S.E. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | -3.934 | .087 p < .001 | |
| Random Effects | s2 | S.E. | ρ |
| Level-1 | 3.29 | ||
| Level-2 | .250 | .042 p < .001 | 6.94% |
| Level-3 | .060 | .162 | 1.67% |
| -2LL=4324243 | |||
| n=623,947 | |||
Full Multilevel Model of Upward Departures_
| Variable | Fixed Effect | Random Effect | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| b | S.E. | Odds Ratio | s2 | S.E. | |
| Intercept | -5.021 | .152 | ----- p < .001 | .064 | .051 |
| Legal Factors | |||||
| Final Offense Level | -.072 | .004 | 931 p < .001 | .001 p < .001 | .000 |
| Criminal History | .057 | .013 | 1 059 p < .001 | 009 p < .001 | .002 |
| Number of Counts (log) | .315 | .018 | 1.370 p < .001 | .009 p < .01 | .003 |
| General Offense Type | --- | --- | |||
| Drugs (reference) | |||||
| Violent | 1.576 | .116 | 4.838 p < .001 | ||
| Firearms | .694 | .094 | 2.001 p < .001 | ||
| Immigration | .199 | .106 | 1.221 | ||
| Property | .532 | .096 | 1.702 p < .001 | ||
| Other | .503 | .116 | 1.653 p < .001 | ||
| Acc. of Responsibility | -.728 | .070 | .483 p < .001 | .045 p < .05 | .018 |
| Extralegal Factors | |||||
| Female | -.559 | .047 | 572 p < .001 | .018 | .014 |
| Minority | .045 | .044 | 1.046 | .035 p < .001 | .010 |
| U.S. Citizen | .509 | .066 | 1.664 p < .001 | 148 p < .001 | .031 |
| Age Over 50 | .311 | .031 | 1.364 p < .001 | .010 | .006 |
| Case-Processing | |||||
| In Custody | 1.403 | .055 | 4.066 p < .001 | 055 p < .001 | .016 |
| Trial | -.100 | .084 | .905 | .063 p < .05 | .027 |
| Random intercept | .064 | .051 | |||
| ρ | 1.9% | ||||
| -2LL = 4149605 n = 567,294 | |||||
Null Model for Upward Departures for Districts Nested in Years_
| Fixed Effects | b | S.E. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | -3.937 | .057 p < .001 | |
| Random Effects | s2 | S.E. | ρ |
| Level-1 | 3.29 | ||
| Level-2 | .282 | .046 p < .001 | 7.69% |
| Level-3 | .093 | .010 | 2.54% |
| -2LL=4328082 | |||
| n=623,947 | |||
Descriptive Statistics_
| Variable | Mean (%) |
| Dependent Variable | |
| Upward Departure | (2.0%) |
| Predictor Variables | |
| Legal | |
| Final Offense Level | 18.72 |
| Criminal History | 2.48 |
| Number of Counts | 1.42 |
| General Offense Type | |
| Drugs | (33.0%) |
| Violent | (5.9%) |
| Firearms | (10.6%) |
| Immigration | (29.9%) |
| Property | (16.5%) |
| Other | (14.0%) |
| Acceptance of Responsibility | (94.8%) |
| Extralegal | |
| Female | (12.8%) |
| Minority | (73.5%) |
| U.S. Citizen | (58.7%) |
| Age Over 50 | (12.5%) |
| Case-Processing | |
| In Custody | (75.3%) |
| Trial | (3.5%) |
Null Model for Upward Departures Nested in Districts_
| Fixed Effects | b | S.E. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | -3.921 | .058 p < .001 | |
| Random Effects | s2 | S.E. | ρ |
| Level-1 | 3.29 | --- | |
| Level-2 | .301 | .047 p < .001 | 8.38% |
| -2LL=4324129 | |||
| n=623,947 | |||
Coding Scheme of Variables_
| Variable | Coding Scheme | Description |
| Dependent Variable | ||
| Upward Departure | 1 = yes | Defendant received an upward departure |
| Predictor Variables | ||
| Legal | ||
| Final Offense Level | Scale | Guidelines scale rating offense severity from 1-43 |
| Criminal History | Ordinal | Guidelines ranking of criminal history from I-VI |
| Number of Counts | Log (scale) | Natural log of the number of counts of conviction |
| General Offense Type | Five dummy variables | Five dummy indicators with the reference category of drug offenses |
| Acceptance of Responsibility | 1 = yes | Dummy indicator for having received a reduction in offense levels for accepting responsibility |
| Extralegal | ||
| Male | 1 = male | Dummy indicator for gender |
| Minority | 1 = minority | Dummy indicator for black, Hispanic, or other together coded as 1, with the reference category white |
| U.S. Citizen | 1 = citizen | Dummy indicator for a U.S. citizen |
| Age Over 50 | 1 = yes | Dummy indicator for age 50 and above |
| Case-Processing | ||
| In Custody | 1 = yes | Dummy indicator for being in custody at time of sentencing |
| Trial | 1 = yes | Dummy indicator for going to trial (versus a plea) |
| Level-2 | Nominal | 94 districts |
Specific Reasons Given by Judges for Upward Departures
| Rank | Reason | Percentage of Cases |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criminal history issues | 60.0% |
| 2 | Nature and circumstances of the offense and history and character of the defendant | 53.5% |
| 3 | Reflect the seriousness of the offense, promote respect for the law, and provide just punishment | 49.9% |
| 4 | Deterrence | 42.6% |
| 5 | Protect the public from further crimes of the defendant | 40.9% |
| 6 | Rehabilitation | 9.3% |
| 7 | Avoid unwarranted disparities | 8.0% |
| 8 | Dismissed and acquitted conduct | 8.4% |
| 9 | General adequacy issue | 5.5% |
| 10 | General guideline issue | 4.4% |