Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming Cover

Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming

Open Access
|Jan 2008

References

  1. Allen , M. R. , Stott , P. A. , Mitchell , J. F. B. , Schnur , R. and Delworth , T . 2000 . Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change . Nature 407 , 617 620 .
  2. Anderson , T. L. , Charlson , R. J. , Schwartz , S. E. , Knutti , R. , Boucher , O. and co-authors. 2003. Climate forcings by aerosols-a hazy picture. Science 300, 1103-110 4 .
  3. Andreae , M. O. , Jones , C. D. and Cox , P. M . 2005 . Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future . Nature 435 , 1187 1190 .
  4. Andronova , N. G. and Schlesinger , M. E . 2001 . Objective estimation of the probability density function for climate sensitivity . J. Geophys. Res . 106 ( 019 ), 22605 22611 .
  5. Brohan , R , Kennedy , J. J. , Harris , I. , Tett , S. F. B. and Jones , P. D . 2006 . Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res. 111 , 10.1029/2005JD006548 .
  6. Forest , C. E. , Stone , P. H. and Sokolov , A. P . 2006 . Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings . Geophys. Res. Lett . 33 , L01705 .
  7. Friedlingstein , R , Cox , P. , Betts , R. , Bopp , L. , Von Bloh , W. and co-authors. 2006. Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the (CMIP)-M-4 model intercomparison. J. Climate 19, 3337-335 3 .
  8. Gregory , J. M. , Stouffer , R. , Raper , S. , Stott , P. A. and Rayner , N . 2002 . An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity . J Climate 15 , 3117 3211 .
  9. Hegerl , G. C. , Zwiers , F. W. , Braconnot , P. , Gillett , N. P. , Luo , Y. and co-authors. 2007. Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change ( eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , and co-editors), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  10. IDAG . 2006 . Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: a review of recent advances . J. Climate 18 , 1291 1314 .
  11. IPCC . 2007 . Climate change 2007: The physical science basis . In: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change ( eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , and co-editors), Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA .
  12. Jones , G. S. , Jones , A. , Roberts , D. L. , Stott , P. A. , Williams , K. D . 2005 . Sensitivity of global scale attribution results to inclusion of climatic response to black carbon. Geophys. Res. Lett . 32, 10.1029/2005GL023370 .
  13. Kettleborough , J. A. , Booth , B. B. B. , Stott , P. A. and Allen , M. R . 2007 . Estimates of uncertainty in predictions of global mean surface temperatures . J. Climate 20 , 843 855 .
  14. Knutti , R. , Stocker , T. E , Joos , F. and Plattner , G.-K . 2003 . Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks . Clim. Dyn . 21 , 257 272 .
  15. Levitus , S. , Antonov , J. I. and Boyer , T. P . 2005 . Warming of the World Ocean, 1955-2003 . Geophys. Res. Lett . 32 , L02604 , 10.1029/2004GL021592 .
  16. Meehl , G. A. , Stocker , T. F. , Collins , W. D. , Friedlingstein , P. , Gaye , A. T. and co-authors. 2007. Global climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , and co-editors), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  17. Nalciéenovié , N. and Swart , R. (eds). 2000 . Special Report on Emissions Scenarios . Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , United Kingdom , 599 p .
  18. Stott , P. A. and Kettleborough , J. A . 2002 . Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise . Nature 416 , 723 726 .
  19. Stott , P. A. and Forest , C. E . 2007 . Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints . Phil. Trans. Royal Soc . 365 , 2029 2052 .
  20. Stott , P. A. , Mitchell , J. F. B. , Allen , M. , Delworth , T. , Gregory , J. M. , and co-authors. 2006. Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming. J. Climate 19, 3055-306 9 .
Language: English
Page range: 76 - 81
Submitted on: Jan 9, 2007
Accepted on: Oct 15, 2007
Published on: Jan 1, 2008
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2008 Peter A. Stott, Chris Huntingford, Chris D. Jones, Jamie A. Kettleborough, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.