Attribution of recent changes in autumn cyclone associated precipitation in the Arctic

Julienne C. Stroeve; Mark C. Serreze; Andrew Barrett; David N. Kindig

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00515.x

Attribution of recent changes in autumn cyclone associated precipitation in the Arctic

Tellus

Volume 63 (2011): Issue 4

By: Julienne C. Stroeve, Mark C. Serreze, Andrew Barrett and David N. Kindig

Open Access

|Jan 2011

Abstract

An Arctic Ocean with less sea ice and more open water in September has led to anomalous warming of the overlying atmosphere in autumn. Through influences on column water vapour and atmospheric circulation, it is reasonable to expect that this warming will have impacts on Arctic precipitation. Analysis of data from the JRA-25 atmospheric reanalysis reveals an autumn increase in cyclone-associated precipitation over the past decade. This is linked to a shift in atmospheric circulation towards more frequent and more intense cyclones in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Composites based on years with the five lowest and five highest September ice extents reveal more autumn cyclone associated precipitation and columnwater vapour during lowice years than during high ice years. However, difficulties in establishing cause and effect, including the absence of a clear association between spatial patterns of recent precipitation changes and ice extent anomalies, lead us to conclude that attribution of recent autumn precipitation increases to reduced ice cover is premature.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00515.x | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 653 - 663

Submitted on: Apr 5, 2010

Accepted on: Jan 21, 2011

Published on: Jan 1, 2011

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2011 Julienne C. Stroeve, Mark C. Serreze, Andrew Barrett, David N. Kindig, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 63 (2011): Issue 4