Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Verification and intercomparison of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems in the Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project Cover

Verification and intercomparison of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems in the Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project

Open Access
|Jan 2011

References

  1. Brier , G ., 1950 . Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabil-ity. Mon . Wea. Re v ., 78 , 1 3 .
  2. Buizza , R. , Tribbia , J ., Molteni , E and Palmer , T. N. , 1993. Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model. Tellus , 45A , 388 - 407 .
  3. Casati , B. , Wilson , L. J. , Stephenson , D. B. , Nurmi , R , Ghelli , A. and co-authors , 2008. Forecast verification: current status and future di-rections. Meteor AppL , 15 , 3 - 18 .
  4. Charron , M. , Pellerin , G. , Spacek , L. , Houtekamer , P. L. , Gagnon , N. and co-authors . 2010 . Toward random sampling of model error in the Canadian ensemble prediction system . Mon. Wea. Rev ., 138 , 1877– 1901 .
  5. Chen D H , Xue , J. S. and Yang , X. S ., 2008 . New generation of multi-scale NVVP system (GRAPES): general scientific design . China Sci. Bull ., 53 ( 22 ): 3433 3445
  6. Cote , J. , Gravel , S. , Methot , A. , Patoine, A. Roch , M. and co-authors. 1998a. The operational CMC-MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model , Part I: design considerations and formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev ., 126 , 1373-139 5 .
  7. Cote , J. , Desmarais , J.-G. Gravel, S. Methot , A. Patoine , A. and co-authors. 1998b. The operational CMC-MRB Global Environmen-tal Multiscale (GEM) model , part II: results. Mon. Wea. Rev ., 126 , 1397-141 8 .
  8. Derkova. , M. and Bellus , M . 2007 . Various applications of the blending by digital filter technique in the ALADIN numerical weather predic-tion system. Meteorologic14 casopis , 10 , 27 - 36. Available online at http://wwwsc-lace.eu.
  9. Du , J . 2004 . Hybrid ensemble prediction system: a new ensem-bling approach. Preprints, Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction , University of Mary-land, College Park, Maryland, June 14-17, 2004, Amer. Me-teor. Soc., CD-ROM (paper p4.2, 5pp). Available online at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/reference.html.
  10. Ebisuzalci , W. and Kalnay , E . 1991 . Ensemble experiments with a new lagged average forecasting scheme. WMO Research Activities in At-mospheric and Oceanic Modeling Rep . 15 , Geneva, Switzerland , 6.31 - 6.32 .
  11. Evensen , G ., 1994 . Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statis-tics. J. Geophys. Res ., 99 ( C5 ), 10 143-10 162 .
  12. Harvey , L. O. , Hammond , K. R. , Lusk , C. M. and Mross , E. F. 1992. The application of signal detection theory to weather forecasting behavior. Mon. Wea. Rev ., 120 , 863 - 883 .
  13. Hou , D. , Kalnay , E. and Drogemeier , K . 2001 . Objective verification of the SAMEX98 ensemble forecasts. Mon . Wea. Re v ., 129 , 73 91 .
  14. Janjié , Z. I. , Gerrity Jr., J. P . and Nickovic , S. 2001 . An alternative ap-proach to nonhydrostatic modeling . Mon. Wea. Rev ., 129 , 1164 - 1178 .
  15. Keenan , T. , Joe , P. , Wilson , J. , Collier , C. , Golding , B. and co-authors . 2003 . The Sydney 2000 World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project. Bull. A. Met. Soc ., 84 , 1041 - 1054 .
  16. Kunii , M. , Saito , K. and Seko , H . 2010 . Mesoscale data assimilation experiment in the WWRP BO8RDP . SOLA , 6 , 33 36 .
  17. Mullen , S. L. , and Baumhefner , D. P . 1989 . The impact of initial con-dition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis. Mon . Wea. Re v ., 117 , 2800 2821 .
  18. Murphy , A. H ., 1973 . A new vector partition of the probability score . J. AppL Meteor , 12 , 595 600 .
  19. Murphy , A. H ., 1988 . Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient. Mon . Wea. Re v ., 116 , 2417 2424 .
  20. Richardson , D. S ., 2000 . Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system . Q. J. R. Meteor Soc ., 126 , 649 667 .
  21. Saito , K. , Fujita , T. , Yamada , Y. , Ishida , J. , Kumagai , Y. and co-authors . 2006 . The operational JMA nonhydrostatic mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev ., 134 , 1266 - 1298 .
  22. Saito , K. , Ishida , J. , Aranami , K. , Hara , T. , Segawa , T. and co-authors . 2007 . Nonhydrostatic atmospheric models and operational develop-ment at .TMA. J. Meteor Soc. Japan , 85B , 271 - 304 .
  23. Saito , K. , Seko , H. , Kunii , M. and Hara , M . 2008 . Mesoscale ensem-ble prediction experiment for WWRP Beijing Olympic 2008 RDP: 2007 preliminary experiment. CAS/JSC WGNE Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling , 37 , 1.23 - 1.24 .
  24. Saito , K. , Kunii , M. , Hara , M. , Seko , H. , Hara , T. and co-authors . 2010 . WWRP Beijing Olympics 2008 Forecast Demon-stration/Research and Development Project (B08FDP/RDP). Tech. Rep. MRI , 62 , 1 - 146. Available online at http://www.mri-jma.go. jp/Publish/Technical/DATANOL_62/62_en.html.
  25. Saito , K. , Hara , M. , Kunii , M. , Seko , H. and Yamaguchi , M . 2011 . Com-parison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP) . Tellus , 63A .
  26. Skamarock , W. C. , Klemp , J. B. , Dudhia , J. , Gill , D. O. , Barker , D. M. and co-authors. 2005. A description of the Advanced Research WRF, Version 2. NCAR Technical Note.
  27. Toth , Z. , and Kalnay , E . 1993 . Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the gen-eration of perturbations . Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc ., 74 , 2317 2330 .
  28. Toth , Z. , and Kalnay , E . 1997 . Ensemble forecasting at NCEP: the breeding method. Mon . Wea. Re v ., 125 , 3297 3318 .
  29. Wei , M. , Toth , Z. , Wobus , R. and Zhu , Y . 2008 . Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system . Tellus , 60A , 62 79 .
  30. Yamaguchi , M. , Sakai , R. , Kyoda , M. Komori , T. and Kadowaki , T. 2009. Typhoon ensemble prediction system developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency. Mon. Wea. Rev ., 137 , 2592 - 2604 .
  31. Yeh , K.-S. , Cote , J. , Gravel , S. , Methot , A. , Patoine , A. and co-authors . 2002 . The CMC-MRB global environmental multiscale (GEM) model, Part HL nonhydrostatic formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev ., 130 , 339 - 356 .
  32. Zhou , B. and Du , J . 2010 . Fog prediction from a multimodel mesoscale ensemble prediction system . Weather and Forecasting , 25 , 302 322 .
Language: English
Page range: 531 - 549
Submitted on: Apr 20, 2010
Accepted on: Jan 13, 2011
Published on: Jan 1, 2011
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2011 Masaru Kunii, Kazuo Saito, Hiromu Seko, Masahiro Hara, Tabito Hara, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Jiandong Gong, Martin Charron, Jun Du, Yong Wang, Dehui Chen, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.