Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Predictability of short-range forecasting: a multimodel approach Cover

Predictability of short-range forecasting: a multimodel approach

Open Access
|Jan 2011

References

  1. Andersson , E. , Haseler , J. , Unden , P. , Courtier , R , Kelly , G. and co-authors . 1998 . The ECMWF implementation of the three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-Var). DI: experimental results . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 124 , 1831– 1860 .
  2. Anderson , J. L . 1996 . A method for producing and evaluating prob-abilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations . J. Clim . 9 , 1518 1530 .
  3. Arribas , A. , Robertson , K. B. and Mylne , K. R . 2005 . Test of poor man’s ensemble prediction system. Mon . Wea. Re v . 133 , 1825 1839 .
  4. Atger , F . 2003 . Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: consequences for calibration. Mon . Wea. Re v . 131 , 1509 1523 .
  5. Bishop , C. H. , Etherton , B. J. and Majumdar , S. J . 2001 . Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: theoretical aspects. Mon . Wea. Re v . 129 , 420 436 .
  6. Bowler , N. E. and Mylne , K. R . 2009 . Ensemble transform Kalman filter perturbations for a regional ensemble prediction system . Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc . 135 , 757 766 .
  7. Bowler , N. E. , Arribas , A. , Mylne , K. R. , Robertson K. B. and Beare S. E . 2008 . The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 134 , 703 722 .
  8. Bowler , N. E. , Arribas , A. , Beare , S. E. , Mylne , K. R. and Shutts G. J . 2009 . The local ETKF and SKEB: upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 135 , 767 776 .
  9. Bright , D. R. and Mullen , S. L . 2002 . Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation during the southwest monsoon . Weather Forecast . 17 , 1080 1100 .
  10. Buizza , R. and Palmer , T . 1995 . The singular vectors structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos Sc i . 52 , 1434 1456 .
  11. Buizza , R. and Palmer , T . 1997 . Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction, and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon . Wea. Re v . 125 , 99 119 .
  12. Buizza , R. and Palmer T. N . 1998 . Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Mon . Wea. Re v . 126 , 2503 2518 .
  13. Buizza , R. , Miller , M. and Palmer , T . 1999 . Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 125 , 2887 2908 .
  14. Candille , G. and Talagrand , O . 2005 . Evaluation of probabilistic pre-diction systems for a scalar variable . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 131 , 2131 2150 .
  15. Casati , B. , Wilson , L. J. , Stephenson , D. B. , Nurmi , R , Ghelli , A. and co-authors . 2008 . Forecast verification: current status and future di-rections. Met. Appl . 15 , 3 - 18 .
  16. Cherubini , T. , Ghelli , A. and Lalaurette , E 2002 . Verification of precipi-tation forecasts over the Alpine region using a high-density observing network . Weather Forecast , 17 , 238 248 .
  17. Clark , A. J. , Gallus W. A. Jr. and Chen , T . 2008 . Contributions of mixed physics versus perturbed initial/lateral boundary conditions to ensemble-based precipitation forecast skill . Mon. Wea. Rev . 136 ( 6 ), 2140 2156 .
  18. Côé , J. , Desmarais , J. G. , Gravel , S. , Methot , A. , Patoine , A. and co-authors . 1998a. The operational CMC-MRB global environmen-tal multiscale (GEM) model. Part II: results. Mon. Wea. Rev . 126 , 1397-141 8 .
  19. Côé , J. , Gravel , S. , Methot , A. , Patoine , A. , Roch , M. and co-authors . 1998b. The operational CMC-MRB global environmental multiscale (GEM) model. Part I: design considerations and formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev . 126 , 1373-139 5 .
  20. Cullen , M. J. P . 1993 . The unified forecast/climate model . Meteorol. Mag . 122 , 81 94 .
  21. Doms , G. and Schättler , U . 1997 . The nonhydrostatic area model LM (Lokal-Modell) of DWD. Part I: scientific documentation. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach. March 1997 .
  22. Dudhia , J . 1993 . A nonhydrostatic penn state-NCAR mesoscale model: validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon . Wea. Re v . 121 , 1493 1523 .
  23. Ebisuzalci , W. and Kalnay , E . 1991 . Ensemble experiments with new lagged average forecasting scheme . WMO Research Activities in At-mospheric and Oceanic Modeling Rep . 15 , 308 pp .
  24. Emanuel , K. A . 1979 . Inertial instability and mesoscale convective sys-tems. Part I: linear theory of inertial instability in rotating viscous fluids. J. Atmos. Sc i . 36 , 2425 2449 .
  25. Ferro , C. A. T . 2007 . Comparing probabilistic forecasting systems with the Brier score . Weather Forecast , 22 , 1076 1089 .
  26. Ferro , C. A. T. , Richardson , D. S. and Weigel , A. P . 2008 . On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores . Met. AppL 15 , 19 24 .
  27. Frogner , I.-L. and Iversen , T . 2001 : Targeted ensemble prediction for northern Europe and parts of the north Atlantic Ocean . Taus 53A , 35 55 .
  28. Frogner , I.-L. , Haakenstad , H. and Iversen , T . 2006 . Limited-area en-semble predictions at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 132 , 2785 2808 .
  29. Grell , G. A. , Dudhia , J. and Stauffer , D. R . 1994 . A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) . NCAR Technical Note , NCAR/TN-398±STR , 117 pp .
  30. Gutiérrez , J. M. , Cofiiio , A. S. , Cano , R. and Rodriguez , M. A . 2004 . Clustering methods for statistical downscaling in short-range weather forecasts. Mon . Wea. Re v . 132 , 2169 2183 .
  31. Hacker , J. P. , Krayenhoff , E. S. and Stull , R. B . 2003 . Ensemble exper-iments on numerical weather prediction error and uncertainty for a north Pacific forecast failure . Weather Forecast , 18 , 12 31 .
  32. Hamill , T. M . 2001 . Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon . Wea. Re v . 129 , 550 560 .
  33. Hamill , T. M. and Colucci , S. J . 1997 : Verification of ETA-RSM short-range ensemble forecast. Mon . Wea. Re v . 125 , 1322 1327 .
  34. Hamill , T. M. and Colucci , S. J . 1998 . Evaluation of Eta-RMS ensem-ble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon . Wea. Re v . 126 , 711 724 .
  35. Hamill T. M. and Juras J . 2006 . Measuring forecast skill: is it real or is it the varying climatology? . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 132 , 2905 2923 .
  36. Hamill , T. M. , Snyder , C. and Morss , R. E . 2000 . A comparison of probabilistic forecasts from bred, singular-vector, and perturbed ob-servation ensembles. Mon . Wea. Re v . 128 , 1835 1851 .
  37. Hoffman , R. N. and Kalnay , E . 1983 . Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting . Tellus 35A , 100 118 .
  38. Hohenegger , C. and Schär , C . 2007 : Atmospheric predictability at synoptic versus cloud-resolving scales . Bull. Am. Meteor Soc . 88 , 1783 1793 .
  39. Hollingsworth , A . 1980 . An experiment in Monte Carlo forecasting. In: Proceedings of the Workshop on Stochastic-Dynamic Forecasting , Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 65 - 85 .
  40. Hou , D. , Kalnay , E. and Droegemeier , K . 2001 . Objective verifica-tion of the SAMEX’98 ensemble forecast. Mon . Wea. Re v . 129 , 73 91 .
  41. Houtekamer , P. L. , Lefaiver , L. , Derome , J. , Ritchie , H. and Mitchell , H. L . 1996 . A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon . Wea. Re v . 124 , 1225 1242 .
  42. Jakob , C. , Andersson , E. , Beljaars , A. , Buizza , R. , Fisher , M. and co-authors . 1999 . The IFS cycle CY21r4 made operational in October 1999. ECMWF Newslettet ; 87 , 2 - 9 .
  43. Jolliffe , I. T . 2007 . Uncertainty and inference for verification measures . Weather Forecast , 22 , 637 650 .
  44. Jolliffe , I. T. and Stephenson , D. B . 2003 . Forecast Verification: A Prac-titioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science . Wiley , New York .
  45. Kharin , V. V. and Zwiers , E W . 2003 . On the ROC score of probability forecasts . J. Clim . 16 , 4145 4150 .
  46. Leith , C. E . 1974 . Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecast. Mon . Wea. Re v . 102 , 409 418 .
  47. Leslie , L. M. and Speer , M. S . 1998 . Short-range ensemble forecasting of explosive Australian east coast cyclogenesis . Weather Forecast , 13 , 822 832 .
  48. Lorenz , E. N . 1963 . Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sc i . 20 , 130 141 .
  49. McDonald , A. and Haugen , J . 1992 . A two-time-level, three-dimensional semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit, limited-area gridpoint model of the primitive equations. Mon . Wea. Re v . 120 , 2603 2621 .
  50. Majewski , D . 1991 . The Europa-Modell of DWD. In: Proceedings of ECMWF Seminar on Numerical Methods in Atmospheric Science 2 , 147 - 191 , ECMWF, Reading, UK.
  51. Majewski , D. , Liermann , D. , Prohl , P. , Ritter , B. , Buchhold , M. and co-authors . 2002 . The operational Global Icosahedral-Hexagonal grid-point model GME: description and high-resolution tests. Mon. Wea. Rev . 130 , 319 - 338 .
  52. Marsigli , C. , Montani , A. , Nerozzi , F. and Paccagnella , T . 2004 . Prob-abilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe . Nat. Hazard. Earth Sys . 4 , 315 322 .
  53. Marsigli , C. , Montani , A. and Paccangnella , T . 2008 . A spatial verifi-cation method applied to the evaluation of high-resolution ensemble forecasts . Met. AppL 15 , 125 143 .
  54. Mason , S. J. 2004 . On using “climatology” as a reference strategy in the Brier and ranked probability skill scores . Mon. Wea. Rev . 132 , 1891– 1895 .
  55. Mason , S . 2008 . Understanding forecast verification statistics . Met. AppL 15 , 31 40 .
  56. Molteni , F. , Buizza , R. , Palmer , T. N. and Petroliagis , T . 1996 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 122 , 73 120 .
  57. Mullen , S. L. and Baumhefner , D. P . 1989 . The impact of initial con-dition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis. Mon . Wea. Re v . 117 , 2800 2821 .
  58. Murphy , J. M . 1988 . The impact of ensemble forecasts on predictability . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 114 , 463 493 .
  59. Palmer , T. N. , Barkmeier , J. , Buizza , R. and Petroliagis , T . 1997 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system . Meteorol. Appl . 4 , 301 304 .
  60. Palmer , T. N. , Alessandri , A. , Andersen , U. , Cantelaube , P. , Davey , M. and co-authors . 2004 . Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 85 , 853 - 872 .
  61. Podzun , R. , Cress , A. , Majewski , D. and Renner , V . 1995 . Simulation of European climate with a limited area model. Part II: AGCM boundary conditions . Contrib. Atmos. Phys . 68 , 205 226 .
  62. Roebber , P. J. and Reuter , G. W . 2002 . The sensitivity of precipitation to circulation details. Part II: mesoscale modeling. Mon . Wea. Re v . 130 , 3 23 .
  63. Sela , J. G . 1980 . Spectral modeling at the National Meteorological Cen-ter, Mon . Wea. Re v . 108 , 1279 1292 .
  64. Sela , J. G . 1982 . The NMC spectral model , NOAA Technical Report NVVS- 30 , 36 pp .
  65. Simmons , A. J. , Burridge , D. M. , Jarraud , M. , Girard , C. and Wergen , W . 1989 . The ECMWF medium-range prediction models: development of the numerical formulations and the impact of increased resolution . Meteorol. Atmos. Phys . 40 , 28 60 .
  66. Stensrud , D. J. and Weiss , S. J . 2002 . Mesoscale model ensemble fore-casts of the 3 May 1999 Tornado outbreak . Weather Forecast , 17 , 526 543 .
  67. Stensrud , D. J. and Yussouf , N . 2007 . Reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from a short-range ensemble forecast system . Weather Forecast , 22 , 3 17 .
  68. Stensrud , D. J. , Bao , J.-W. and Warner , T. T. 2000 . Using Initial Condition and Model Physics Perturbations in Short-Range Ensemble Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems . Mon. Wea. Rev . 128 , 2077-210 7 .
  69. Stensrud , D. J. , Brooks , H. E. , Du , J. , Tracton , M. S. and Rogers , E . 1999 . Using ensembles for the short-range forecasting. Mon . Wea. Re v . 127 , 433 446 .
  70. Swets , J. A . 1988 . Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems . Sci-ence , 240 ( 4857 ): 1285 1289 .
  71. Toth , Z. and Kalnay , E . 1993 . Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations . Bull. Am. Meteor Soc . 74 , 2317 2330 .
  72. Toth , Z. and Kalnay , E . 1997 . Ensemble forecasting at NCEP: the breed-ing method. Mon . Wea. Re v . 125 , 3297 3318 .
  73. Tracton , M. S. , Du , J. , Toth , Z. and Juang , H . 1998 . Short-range ensem-ble forecasting (SREF) at NCEP/ECM. In: Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction , Phoenix, American Meteorological Society, pp. 269 - 272 .
  74. Unden , R , Rontu , L. , Järvinen , H. , Lynch , P. , Calvo , J. and co-authors . 2002 . HIRLAM-5 Scientific Documentation. Available from Hirlam-5 Project, do Per Unden, SMHI, S-60176, Norrkiiping, Sweden, 144 pp .
  75. Wandishin , M. S. , Stensrud , D. J. , Mullen , S. L. and Wicker , L. J . 2008 . On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems: two-dimensional simulations . Weather Forecast , 23 , 773 785 .
  76. Wandishin , M. S. , Stensrud , D. J. , Mullen , S. L. and Wicker , L. J . 2010 . On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems: three-dimensional simulations. Mon . Wea. Re v . 138 , 863 885 .
  77. Wang , X. and Bishop C. H . 2003 . A comparison of breeding and en-semble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes. J. Atmos. Sc i . 60 , 1140 1158 .
  78. Whitaker , J. S. and Loughe , A. F . 1998 . The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon . Wea. Re v . 126 , 3292 3302 .
  79. Wilks , D. S . 1995 . Statistical Methods in Atmospheric Sciences . Academic Press , San Diego , CA , 467 pp .
  80. Wilson , L. J. 2000 . Comments on “Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System” . Weather Forecast , 15 , 361 - 364 .
  81. Zhang , F . 2005 . Dynamics and structure of mesoscale error covariance of a winter cyclone estimated through short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon . Wea. Re v . 133 , 2876 2893 .
  82. Ziehmann , C . 2000 . Comparison of a single-model EPS with a multi-model ensemble consisting of a few operational models . Tellus 52A , 280 299 .
Language: English
Page range: 550 - 563
Submitted on: Apr 11, 2010
Accepted on: Nov 19, 2010
Published on: Jan 1, 2011
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2011 Jose-Antonio García-Moya, Alfons Callado, Pau Escribá, Carlos Santos, Daniel Santos-Muñoz, Juan Simarro, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.