Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges Cover

Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges

Open Access
|Jan 2011

References

  1. Bowler , N. E. , Arribas , A. , Mylne , K. R. , Robertson , K. B. and Beare , S. E . 2008 . The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 134 , 703 722 .
  2. Buizza , R. , Hollingsworth , A ., Lalaurette , E and Ghelli , A. 1999. Proba-bilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF ensemble pre-diction system. Wea. Forecasting 14 , 168 - 189 .
  3. Buizza , R . 2005 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system . In: Pre-dictability of Weather and Climate (eds. T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , 459 488 .
  4. Buizza , R. , Bidlot , J.-R. , Wedi , N. , Fuentes , M. , Hamrud , M. and co-authors . 2007 . The new ECMWF VAREPS (Variable Resolution En-semble Prediction System). Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 133 , 681 - 695 .
  5. Diomede , T. , Marsigli , C. , Montani , A. and Paccagnella , T . 2010 . Comparison of calibration techniques for a limited-area ensem-ble precipitation forecast using reforecasts. In: Proceedings of the Third WMO International Conference On QPE/QPF and Hydrology, Nanjing, China, 18-22 October 2010 .
  6. Epstein , E. S . 1969 . A scoring system for probabilities of ranked cate-gories . J. AppL Meteor . 8 , 985 987 .
  7. Fundel , F. , Walser , A. , Liniger , M. A. , Frei , C. and Appenzeller , C . 2009 . Calibrated precipitation forecasts for a limited-area ensem-ble forecast system using reforecasts . Mon. Wea. Rev . 138 , 176 189 . 10.1175/2009MWR2977.1
  8. Hamill , T. M. and Juras , J . 2006 . Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 132 , 2905 2923 .
  9. Houtelcamer , P. L. , Derome , J. , Ritchie , H. and Mitchell , H. L . 1996 . A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon . Wea. Re v . 124 , 1225 1242 .
  10. Marsigli , C. , Montani , A. , Nerozzi , F. , Paccagnella , T. , Tibaldi , S. and co-authors . 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part II: limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 127 , 2095-211 5 .
  11. Marsigli , C. , Boccanera , F. , Montani , A. and Paccagnella , T . 2005a . The COSMO-LEPS ensemble system: validation of the method-ology and verification . Nonlin. Proc. in Geophys . 12 , 527 536 .
  12. Marsigli , C. , Montani , A. , Paccagnella , T. , Sacchetti , D. , Walser , A. and co-authors . 2005b . Evaluation of the performance of the COSMO-LEPS system. COSMO Technical Report no 8, 40. Avail-able at http://www.cosmo-model.org/.
  13. Marsigli , C. , Montani , A. and Paccagnella , T . 2008 . A spatial verifica-tion method applied to the evaluation of high-resolution ensemble forecasts . Met. AppL 15 , 125 143 .
  14. Mason , S. J. and Graham , N. E . 1999 . Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics and relative operating levels . Wea. Forecast-ing 14 , 713 725 .
  15. Molteni , F. , Buizza , R. , Palmer , T. N. and Petroliagis , T . 1996 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 122 , 73 119 .
  16. Molteni , F. , Buizza , R. , Marsigli , C. , Montani , A ., Nerozzi , E and co-authors. 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part I: definition of representative members and global-model experiments. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 127 , 2069-209 4 .
  17. Montani , A. , Capaldo , M. , Cesari , D. , Marsigli , C. , Modigliani , U. and co-authors . 2003a . Operational limited-area ensemble forecasts based on the Lolcal Modell. ECMWF Newsletter 98 , 2 - 7 . Available at: http://www.ecmwtint/publications/ .
  18. Montani , A. , Marsigli , C. , Nerozzi , F. , Paccagnella , T. , Tibaldi S. and co-authors . 2003b . The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys . 10 , 261 - 274 .
  19. Montani , A. , Marsigli , C. and Paccagnella , T . 2008a. Five years of limited-area ensemble activities at ARPA-SIM: the COSMO-LEPS system. COSMO Newsletter 8 , 23 - 26 . Available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/ .
  20. Montani , A. , Marsigli , C. and Paccagnella , T . 2008b. Performance of COSMO-LEPS system during the D-PHASE operations pe-riod. COSMO Newsletter 9 , 50 - 53 . Available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/ .
  21. Mullen , S. L. and Buizza , R . 2001 . Quantitative precipitation forecast over the United States by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon . Wea. Re v . 129 , 638 663 .
  22. Oberto , E. and Turco , M . 2008 . Report about the latest results of precipi-tation verification over Italy. COSMO Newsletter 8 , 37 - 44 . Available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/.
  23. Rotach , M. W. , Ambrosetti , P. , Ament , F. , Appenzeller , C. , Arpagaus , M. and co-authors . 2009 . MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of weather forecast quality in the Alpine region. Bull. Am. Meteor Soc 90 ( 9 ), 1321-1336, 10.1175/2009BAMS2776.1
  24. Saetra , O. , Hersbach , H. , Bidlot , J.-R. and Richardson , D. S. 2004. Effects of observation error on the statistics for ensemble spread and reliability. Mon. Wea. Rev . 132 , 1487 - 1501 .
  25. Steppeler , J. , Doms , G. , Schattler , U. , Bitzer , H. W. , Gassmann , A. and co-authors . 2003 . Meso—gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydro-static model LM. Meteor Atmos. Phys . 82 , 75 - 96 .
  26. Talagrand , O. , Vautard , R. and Strauss , B. 1999. Evaluation of proba-bilistic prediction systems. In: Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on Predictability , Reading, UK, 20-22 October 1997,372. Available at: http://www.ecmwtint/publications/ .
  27. Tibaldi , S. , Paccagnella , T. , Marsigli , C. , Montani , A. and Nerozzi , F . 2006 . Limited—area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO—LEPS system . In: Predictability of weather and climate (eds. T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , 489 513 .
  28. Tracton , M. S. and Kalnay , E . 1993 . Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Centre: practical aspects . Wea. Forecast-ing 8 , 379 398 .
  29. Walser , A . 2006 . COSMO-LEPS forecasts for the August 2005 Floods in Switzerland. COSMO Newsletter 6 , 142 - 145. Available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/.
  30. Wilks , D. S . 1995 . Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences . Academic Press , New York , 467 .
  31. Zappa , M. , Rotach , M. W. , Arpagaus , M. , Dorninger , M. , Hegg , C. and co-authors . 2008 . MAP D—PHASE: real—time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmos. Sci. Let . 9 , 80 - 87 . 10.1002/as1.183 .
Language: English
Page range: 605 - 624
Submitted on: Apr 14, 2010
Accepted on: Dec 2, 2010
Published on: Jan 1, 2011
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2011 Andrea Montani, Davide Cesari, Chiara Marsigli, Tiziana Paccagnella, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.