Seasonal predictions of precipitation over Africa using coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models: skill of the ENSEMBLES project multimodel ensemble forecasts

L. Batté; M. Déqué

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00493.x

Seasonal predictions of precipitation over Africa using coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models: skill of the ENSEMBLES project multimodel ensemble forecasts

Tellus

Volume 63 (2011): Issue 2

By: L. Batté and M. Déqué

Open Access

|Jan 2011

Berner , J. , Doblas-Reyes , F. , Palmer , T. , Shuns , G. and Weisheimer , A . 2008 . Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser A 366 ( 1875 ), 2559 - 2577 . 10.1098/rsta.2008.0033 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bouali , L. , Philippon , N. , Fontaine , B. and Lemond , J . 2008 . Perfor-mance of DEMETER calibration for rainfall forecasting purposes: application to the July — August Sahelian rainfall . J. Geophys. Res . 113 ( D15 ), 10.1029/2007J1D009403 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bowden , J. and Semazzi , F . 2007 . Empirical analysis of intraseasonal climate variability over the Greater Horn of Africa . J. Clim . 20 ( 23 ), 5715 – 5731 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Brier , G . 1950 . Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon . Wea. Re v . 78 , 1 – 3 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Camberlin , P. , Janicot , S. and Poccard , I . 2001 . Seasonality and atmo-spheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic VS . ENSO. Int. J. Climatol . 21 ( 8 ), 973 – 1005 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Camberlin , P. and Philippon , N . 2002 . The East-African March-May rainy season: Associated atmospheric dynamics and predictability over the 1968-1997 period . J. Clim . 15 ( 9 ), 1002 – 1019 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Collins , M. , Booth , B. , Harris , G. , Murphy , J. , Sexton , D. and co-authors . 2006 . Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change. Clim. Dyn . 27 , 127 - 147 , 10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Deque , M. and Royer , J.-F . 1992 . The skill of extended-range extratopi-cal winter dynamical forecasts . J. Clim . 5 , 1346 – 1356 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Doblas-Reyes , F. , Weisheimer , A. , Deque , M. , Keenlyside , N. , MacVean , M. and co-authors . 2009 . Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 135 , 1538 - 1559 , 10.1002/qj.464 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Epstein , E . 1969 . A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories . J. Appl. Meteorol . 8 , 985 – 987 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Garric , G. , Douville , H. and Deque , M . 2002 . Prospects for improved seasonal predictions of monsoon precipitation over Sahel . Int. J. Climatol . 22 , 331 – 345 , 10.1002/joc.736 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Giannini , A. , Saravanan , R. and Chang , P . 2005 . Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model . Clim. Dyn . 25 , 517 – 535 . 10.1007/s00382-005-0056-x .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gueremy , J.-E , Deque , M. , Braun , A. and Piedelievre , J.-P . 2005 . Actual and potential skill of seasonal predictions using the CNRM contribu-tion to DEMETER: coupled versus uncoupled model . Tellus 57A , 308 – 319 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Murphy , A . 1973 . A new vector partition of the probability score . J. AppL Meteorol . 12 , 595 – 600 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T . 2002 . The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment : from days to decades . Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc . 128 , 747 – 774 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. , Alessandri , A. , Andersen , U. , Cantelaube , P. , Davey , M. and co-authors . 2004 . Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 85 , 853 - 872 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Philippon , N. , Doblas-Reyes , F. and Ruti , P . 2010 . Skill, reproducibil-ity and potential predictability of the West African monsoon in coupled GCMs . Clim. Dyn . 35 , 53 – 74 , 10.1007/s00382-010-0856-5 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Richardson , D . 2003 . Economic value and skill. In: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science , (eds. I. Joliffe and D. Stephenson ), John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester , UK , pp. 165 - 187.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Rouault , M. and Richard , Y. 2005. Intensity and spatial ex-tent of droughts in southern Africa. Geophys. Res. Lett . 32 , 10.1029/2005GL022436 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Schneider , U. , Fuchs , T. , Meyer-Christoffer , A. and Rudolf , B . 2008 . Global precipitation analysis products of the GPCC. Global Precipi-tation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Internet Publication, Offenbach, Germany, pp. 1 – 12 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shukla , J . 1998 . Predictability in the midst of chaos: a sci-entific basis for climate forecasting . Science 282 , 728 – 731 , 10.1126/science.282.5389.728 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sultan , B. , Janicot , S. and Diedhiou , A . 2003 . The West African Mon-soon dynamics. Part I: documentation of intraseasonal variability . J. Clim . 16 ( 21 ), 3389 – 3406 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Toth , Z ., Talagrand , O. , Candille , G. and Zhu , Y. 2003. Probability and ensemble forecasts. In: Forecast Verification, A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science, (eds. I. Joliffe and D. Stephenson ), John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester , UK , pp. 137 - 163 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Uppala , S. M. , Kallberg , R , Simmons , A. , Andrae , U. , Da Costa Bechtold , V. and co-authors . 2005 . The ERA-40 reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 131 , 2961 - 3012 , 10.1256/qj.04.176 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Vizy , E. and Cook , K . 2001 . Mechanisms by which Gulf of Guinea and Eastern North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies can influence African Rainfall . J. Clim . 14 ( 5 ), 795 – 821 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wang , B. , Lee , J.-Y. , Kang , L-S. , Shukla , J. , Park , C.-K. and co-authors . 2009 . Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal predic-tion (1980-2004). Clim. Dyn . 33 , 93 - 117 , 10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Weisheimer , A. , Doblas-Reyes , F. , Palmer , T. , Alessandri , A. , Arribas , A. and co-authors . 2009 . ENSEMBLES: a new multi-model ensem-ble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys. Res. Lett . 36 , 10.1029/2009GL040896 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wilks , D . 2006 . Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. In: Chapter 7: Forecast Verification, 2nd Edition, Academic Press, London, UK, pp. 255 – 335 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article