Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Extreme value statistics for North Atlantic cyclones Cover

Extreme value statistics for North Atlantic cyclones

Open Access
|Jan 2010

References

  1. Akaike , H . 1974 . A new look at the statistical model identification . IEEE Trans. Automat. Contl . 19 , 716 723 .
  2. Benedict , J. J. , Lee , S. and Feldstein , S. B . 2004 . Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation J. Atmos. Sc i . 61 , 121 144 .
  3. Bengtsson , L. , Hodges , K. I. and Roeckner , E . 2006 . Storm tracks and climate change J. Clim . 19 , 3518 3543 .
  4. Bengtsson , L. , Hodges , K. I. and Keenlyside , N . 2009 . Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J. Clim . 22 , 2276 2301 .
  5. Blender , R. , Fraedrich , K. and Lunkeit , F . 1997 . Identification of cyclone-track regimes in the North Atlantic . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 123 , 727 741 .
  6. Burnham , K. P. and Anderson , D. R . 2002 . Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretical Approach , Springer-Verlag , New York . 496pp .
  7. Coles , S . 2003 . An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values , Springer-Verlag , London . 224pp .
  8. Della-Marta , P. M. and Pinto , J. G . 2009 . Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic in an ensemble of transient climate simulations . Geophys. Res. Lett . 36 , L14703 .
  9. Fink , A. H. , Brücher , T. , Ermert , V , Krüger , A. and Pinto , J. G . 2009 . The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change. Nat . Hazards Earth Syst. Sc i . 9 , 405 423 .
  10. Finnis , J. , Holland , MM. , Serreze , M. C. and Cassano , J. J . 2007 . Response of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity and associated precipitation to climate change, as presented by the community climate system model . J. Geophys. Res . 112 , G04542 .
  11. Gulev , S. K. , Zolina , O. and Grigoriev , S . 2001 . Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data . Clim. Dyn . 17 , 795 809 .
  12. Hodges , K. I . 1994 . A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data. Mon . Wea. Re v . 122 , 2573 2586 .
  13. Jung , T. , Gulev , S. K. , Rudeva , I. and Soloviov , V . 2006 . Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 132 , 1839 1858 .
  14. Jungclaus , J. H. , Keenlyside , N. , Botzet , M. , Kaak , H. , Luo , J.-J. and co-authors. 2006. Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J. Clim . 19 , 3952 3972 .
  15. Katz , R. W. , Parlange , M. B. and Naveau , P . 2002 . Statistics of extremes in hydrology . Adv. Water Resour 25 , 1287 1304 .
  16. Kharin , V. V. and Zwiers , F. W . 2000 . Changes in the extremes in an ensamble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM . J. Clim . 13 , 3760 3788 .
  17. Kharin , V. V. and Zwiers , F. W . 2005 . Estimating extremes in transient climate simulations . J. Clim . 18 , 1156 1173 .
  18. Lambert , S. J. and Fyfe , J. C . 2006 . Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the model participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise . Clim. Dyn . 26 , 713 728 .
  19. Leckebusch , G. C. , Koffi , B. , Ulbrich , U. , Pinto , J. G. , Spangehl , T. and co-authors . 2006 . Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales. Clim. Res . 31 , 59 74 .
  20. Löptien , U. and Ruprecht , E . 2005 . Effect of synoptic systems on the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Mon . Wea. Re v . 133 , 2894 2904 .
  21. Löptien , U. , Zolina , O. , Gulev , S. , Latif , M. and Soloviov , V . 2008 . Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs . Clim. Dyn . 31 , 507 532 .
  22. Mailier , P. J. , Stephenson , D. B. , Ferro , C. A. T. and Hodges , K. I . 2006 . Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones. Mon . Weather Re v . 134 , 2224 2240 .
  23. Marsland , S. J. , Haalc , H. , Jungclaus , J. H. , Latif , M. and Röske , F . 2003 . The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates . Ocean Model . 5 , 91 127 .
  24. Murray , R. J. and Simmonds , I . 1991 . A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centers from digital data. Part I: development and operation of the scheme . Aust. Meteor Mag . 39 , 155 166 .
  25. Nalcicenovic , N. , Alcamo , J. , Davis , G. , de Vries , B. , Fenhann , J. and co-authors . 2000 . Special Report on Emissions Scenarios , (eds N. Nalcicenovic and R. Swart ), Cambridge University Press ., Cambridge , 599pp.
  26. Pinto , J. G. , Ulbrich , U. , Leckebusch , G. C. , Spangehl , T. , Reyers , M. and co-authors . 2007 . Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-0M1 GCM. Clim. Dyn . 29 , 195 210 .
  27. Pinto , J. G. , Zacharias , S. , Fink , A. H. , Leckebusch , G. C. and Ulbrich , U . 2009 . Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO . Clim. Dyn . 32 , 711 737 .
  28. Development Core Team 2009 . R: A language and environment for statistical computing . R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria . http : //www.R-projectorg .
  29. Raible , C. C. , Della-Marta , P. M. , Schwierz , C. , Wernli , H. and Blender , R . 2008 . Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones: a comparison of detection and tracking methods and different reanalyses. Mon . Wea. Re v . 136 , 880 897 .
  30. Roecicner , E. , Bäuml , G. , Bonaventura , L. , Brokopf , R. , Esch , M. and co-authors . 2003 . The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: model description. MPI Rep . 349 , 127pp .
  31. Schneidereit , A. , Blender , R. and Fraedrich , K . 2010 . Radius-depth model for midlatitude cyclones in re-analysis Data and Simulations . Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc . 136 , 50 60 .
  32. Sickmöller , M. , Blender , R. and Fraedrich , K . 2000 . Observed winter cyclone tracks in the Northern Hemisphere in re-analysed ECMWF data . Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc . 126 , 591 620 .
  33. Ulbrich , U. , Leckebusch , G. C. and Pinto , J. G . 2009 . Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review . Theor. Appl. Climatol . 96 , 117 131 .
  34. Uppala , S. M. , Kållberg , P. W. , Simmons , A. J. , Andrae , U. , Da Costa Bechtold , V. and co-authors. 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 131 , 2961 3012 .
  35. Wang , X. L. , Swail , V. R. and Zwiers , F. W . 2008 . Climatology and changes of extratropical cyclone activity: comparison of ERA40 with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1958-2001 . J. Clim . 19 , 3145 3166 .
  36. Zhang , X. , Zwiers , F. and Li , G . 2004 . Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values . J. Clim . 17 , 1945 1952 .
Language: English
Page range: 347 - 360
Submitted on: Aug 7, 2009
Accepted on: Mar 18, 2010
Published on: Jan 1, 2010
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2010 Frank Sienz, Andrea Schneidereit, Richard Blender, Klaus Fraedrich, Frank Lunkeit, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.