Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction Cover

Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction

Open Access
|Jan 2009

References

  1. Anderson , J. L. 1997 . The impact of dynamical constraints on the selec-tion of initial conditions for ensemble predictions: low-order perfect model results. Mon. Wea. Re v . 125 , 2969 2983 .
  2. Arribas , A. , Robertson , K. B. and Mylne , K. R. 2005 . Test of a poor man’s ensemble prediction system for short-range probability forecasting. Mon. Wea. Re v . 133 , 1825 1839 .
  3. Barkmeijer , J. , van Gijzen , M. and Bouttier , F. 1998 . Singular vectors and estimates of the analysis-error covariance metric . Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 124 , 1695 1713 .
  4. Barkmeijer , J. , Buizza , R. and Palmer , T. N. 1999 . 3D-Var Hessian sin-gular vectors and their potential use in ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System . Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 125 , 2333 2351 .
  5. Barkmeijer , J. , Buizza , R. , Palmer , T. N. , Pun , K. and Mahfouf , J.-E 2001 . Tropical singular vectors computed with linearized diabatic physics . Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 127 , 685 708 .
  6. Bengtsson , L. K. , Magnusson , L. and Knillen , E. 2008 . Independent esti-mations of the asymptotic variability in an ensemble forecast system . Mon. Wea. Rev . 136 , 4105 4112 .
  7. Bishop , C. H. and Toth , Z. 1999 . Ensemble transformation and adaptive mbservations . J. Atmos. Sci 56 , 1748 1765 .
  8. Boer , G. J. 2003 . Predictability as a function of scale . Atmos.-Ocean 41 , 203 215 .
  9. Bowler , N. 2006 . Comparison of error breeding, singular vectors, ran-dom perturbations and ensemble Kalman filter perturbation strategies on a simple model . Tellus 58A , 538 548 .
  10. Bowler , N. , Arribas , A. , Mylne , K. R. , Robertson , K. B. and Beare , S. E. 2008 . The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system . Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 134 , 703 722 .
  11. Buizza , R. 2008 . Comparison of a 51-member low-resolution (TL399L62) ensemble with a 6-member high-resolution (TL799L91) lagged-forecast ensemble . Mon. Wea. Rev . 136 , 3343 3362 .
  12. Buizza , R. , Miller , M. and Palmer , T. 1999 . Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System . Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 125 , 2887 2908 .
  13. Buizza , R. , Houtekamer , P. L. , Toth , Z. , Pellerin , G. , Wei , M. and co-authors. 2005. A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems . Mon. Wea. Rev . 133 , 1067 - 1097 .
  14. Candille , G. and Talagrand , J. 2005 . Evaluation of probabilistic predic-tion systems for a scalar variable. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 131 , 2131 - 2150 .
  15. Descamps , L. and Talagrand , J. 2007 . On some aspects of the definition of initial conditions for ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev . 135 , 3260 - 3272 .
  16. Fisher , M. and Courtier , P. 1995 . Estimating the covariance matrices of analysis and forecast error in variational data assimilation, Technical Memorandum 220, ECMWF.
  17. Gustafsson , N. 2007 . Discussion on `4D-Var or EnKF?’ . Tellus 59A , 774 777 .
  18. Hamill , T. H. and Whitaker , J. S. 2005 . Accounting for the error due to unresolved scales in ensemble data assimilation: a comparison of different approches . Mon. Wea. Rev . 133 , 3132 3147 .
  19. Hollingsworth , A. 1979 . An experiment in Monte Carlo forecasting, In: Proceedings of Workshop on Stochastic Dynamic Forecasting , Reading, UK, ECMWF .
  20. Holton , J. R. 2004 . An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology . Academic Press , London , p. 535 .
  21. Hoskins , B. J. and Hodges , K. I. 2002 . New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks . J. Atmos. Sci . 59 , 1041 1061 .
  22. Hoskins , B. J. , Buizza , R. and Badger , J. 2000 . The nature of singular vector growth and structure . Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 1565 1581 .
  23. Houtekamer , P. L. , Lefaivre , L. , Derome , J. , Ritchie , H. and Mitchell , H. 1996 . A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction . Mon. Wea. Rev . 124 , 1225 1242 .
  24. Houtekamer , P. L. , Mitchell , H. and Deng , X. 2008 . Model error resp-resentation in an operational ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev . in press .
  25. Judd , K. , Reynolds , C. A. , Rosmond , T. E. and Smith , L. A. 2008 . The geometry of model error . J. Atmos. Sci . 65 , 1749 1772 .
  26. Källen , E. and Huang , X.-Y. 1988 . The influence of isolated observations on short-range numerical weather forecasts . Tellus 40A , 324 336 .
  27. Leith , C. 1974 . Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts . Mon. Wea. Rev . 1974 , 409 418 .
  28. Leutbecher , M. and Palmer , T. N. 2008 . Ensemble forecasting . J. Com-put. Phys . 227 , 3515 3539 .
  29. Lindzen , R. S. and Farrell , B. 1980 . A simple approximate result for the maximum growth rate of baroclinic instabilities . J. Atmos. Sci . 37 , 1648 1654 .
  30. Lorenz , E. N. 1963 . Deterministic nonperiodic flow . J. Atmos. Sci . 20 , 130 141 .
  31. Lorenz , E. N. 1965 . A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmo-spheric model . Tellus 67 , 321 333 .
  32. Lorenz , E. N. 1969 . The predictability of a flow which posses many scales of motion . Tellus 21 , 289 307 .
  33. Lorenz , E. N. 1982 . Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model . Tellus 34 , 505 513 .
  34. Magnusson , L. , Källen , E. and Nycander , J. 2008 . Initial state pertur-bations in ensemble forecasting . Nonlinear Processes Geophy . 15 , 751 759 .
  35. Magnusson , L. , Leutbecher , M. and Källen , E. 2008 . Comparison be-tween singular vectors and breeding vectors as initial perturbations of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System . Mon. Wea. Rev . 136 , 4092 4104 .
  36. McLay , J. G. , Bishop , C. H. and Reynolds , C. A. 2008 . Evaluation of the ensemble transform analysis perturbation scheme at NRL . Mon. Wea. Rev . 136 , 1093 1108 .
  37. Mureau , R. , Molteni , F. and Palmer , T. 1993 . Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations . Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 119 , 299 323 .
  38. Murphy , A. H. 1973 . A new vector partition of the pobability score . J. AppL Meteorol . 12 , 595 600 .
  39. Palmer , T. N. 1993 . Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz Model . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 74 , 49 66 .
  40. Reinhold , B. 1986 . Structural determinism of linear baroclinic waves and simple nonlinear equilibration . J. Atmos. Sci . 43 , 1484 1504 .
  41. Reynolds , C. A. , Teixeira , J. and McLay , J. G. 2008 . Impact of stochastic convection on the ensemble transform . Mon. Wea. Rev . 136 , 4517 4526 .
  42. Roulston , M. S. and Smith , L. A. 2002 . Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory . Mon. Wea. Rev . 130 , 1653 1660 .
  43. Schubert , S. D. and Suarez , M. 1989 . Dynamical predictability in a simple general circulation model: average error growth . J. Atmos. Sci . 46 , 353 370 .
  44. Szunyogh , I. , Kostelich , E. J. , Gyarmati , G. , Kalnay , E. , Hunt , B. R. , and co-authors . 2008 . A local ensemble transform Kalman filter data assimilation system for the NCEP global model . Tellus 60A , 113 - 130 .
  45. Talagrand , J. , Vautard , R. and Strauss , B. 1999 . Evaluation of probabilis-tic prediction system, In: Proceedings of Workshop on Predictability , October 1997, ECMWF .
  46. Talagrand , J. , Candille , G. and Descamps , L. 2007 . On some aspects of validation of probabilistic prediction, In: Proceedings of Workshop on Ensemble prediction, November 2007, ECMWF.
  47. Toth , Z. and Kalnay , E. 1993 . Ensemble forecasting at NCEP: the generation of perturbation . Bull. Am. MeteoroL Soc . 74 , 2317 2330 .
  48. Toth , Z. and Kalnay , E. 1997 . Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method . Mon. Wea. Rev . 125 , 3297 3319 .
  49. Trevisan , A. 1993 . Impact of transient error growth on global average predictability measures . J. Atmos. Sci . 50 , 1016 1028 .
  50. Tribbia , J. J. and Baumhefner , D. P. 1988 . Estimates of the predictability of low-frequency variability with a spectral general circulation model . J. Atmos. Sci . 45 , 2306 2317 .
  51. Vallis , K. G. 2006 , Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics . Cam-bridge University Press , Cambridge , p. 745 .
  52. Wang , X. and Bishop , C. 2003 . A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes . J. Atmos. Sci . 60 , 1140 1158 .
  53. Wang , X. , Bishop , C. and Julier , S. 2004 . Which is better, an ensemble of positive-negative pairs or a centered spherical simplex ensemble? Mon. Wea. Rev . 132 , 1590 1605 .
  54. Wei , M. and Toth , Z. 2003 . A new measure of ensemble performance: perturbation versus error correlation analysis (PECA) . Mon. Wea. Rev . 131 , 1549 1565 .
  55. Wei , M. , Toth , Z. , Wobus , R. and Zhu , Y. 2008 . Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global ensemble forecast systems . Tellus 60A , 62 79 .
  56. Wilks , D. S. 1997 . Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields . J. Clim . 10 , 65 82 .
  57. Wilks , D. S. 2006 , Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences 2nd Edition . Academic Press , London , p. 627 .
  58. Zhang , F. 2005 . Dynamics and structure of mesoscale error covariance of a winter cyclone estimated through short-range ensemble forecasts . Mon. Wea. Rev . 133 , 2876 2893 .
Language: English
Page range: 194 - 209
Submitted on: Jun 12, 2008
Accepted on: Nov 27, 2008
Published on: Jan 1, 2009
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2009 Linus Magnusson, Jonas Nycander, Erland Källén, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.