Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Optimal atmospheric forcing perturbations for the cold-ocean warm-land pattern Cover

Optimal atmospheric forcing perturbations for the cold-ocean warm-land pattern

Open Access
|Jan 2008

References

  1. Barkmeijer , J. , Iversen , T. and Palmer , T. N. 2003 . Forcing singular vectors and other sensitive model structures . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 129 , 2401 2423 .
  2. Blackmon , M. L. 1976 . A climatological spectral study of the 500mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere . J. Atmos. Sci . 33 , 1607 1623 .
  3. Boer , G. J. and Yu , B . 2003 . Climate sensitivity and response. Clim. Dyn . 20 , 415 429 , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-002-0283-3 .
  4. Branstator , G. 1990 . Low-frequency patterns induced by stationary waves . J. Atmos. Sci . 47 , 629 648 .
  5. Branstator , G. 2002 . Circumglobal teleconnections, the jet stream waveg-uide, and the North Atlantic oscillation . J. Climate 15 , 1893 1910 .
  6. Broccoli , A. J. , Lau , N. -C. and Nath , M. J. 1998 . The cold ocean-warm land pattern: model simulation and relevance to climate change detection. J. Climate 11 , 2743 - 2763 .
  7. Buizza , R. 1993 . Impact of a simple vertical diffusion scheme and of the optimization time interval on optimal unstable perturbations. ECMWF Research Department Technical Memorandum no. 192, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom.
  8. Buizza , R. 1994 . Localization of optimal perturbations using a projection operator . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 120 , 1647 1682 .
  9. Buizza , R. and Palmer , T. N. 1995 . The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation . J. Atmos. Sci . 52 , 1434 1456 .
  10. Cheng , X. and Wallace , J. M. 1993 . Cluster analysis of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime 500-hPa height fireld: spatial patterns. J. At-mos. Sci . 50 , 2674 2696
  11. Corti , S. and Palmer , T. N. 1997 . Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric low-frequency variability . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 123 , 2425 2447 .
  12. Corti , S., Molteni , E and Palmer , T. N. 1999 . Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes. Na-ture 398 , 799 - 802 .
  13. Ehrendorfer , M. , Errico , R. and Gelaro , R. 1999 . Singular-vector per-turbation growth in a primitive equation model with moist physics . J. Atmos. Sci . 47 , 1627 1648 .
  14. Errico , R. M. 1997 . What is an adjoint model? Bull. Amer Meteor. Soc . 78 , 2577 2591 .
  15. Errico , R. M. 2000 . The dynamical balance of singular vectors in a primitive equation model . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 126A , 1601 1618 .
  16. Evans , K. J. and Black , R. X. 2003 . Piecewise tendency diagnosis of weather regime transitions . J. Atmos. Sci . 60 , 1941– 1959
  17. Farrell , B. E and Ioannou , P. J. 19966 . Generalized stability theory. Part I: autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci . 53 , 2025 - 2040 .
  18. Farrell , B. E and Ioannou , P. J. 19966 . Generalized stability theory. Part nonautonomous systems. J. Atmos. Sci . 53 , 2042 - 2053 .
  19. Giorgi , E , Hewitson , B. , Christensen , J. , Hulme , M. , von Storch , H. , and co-authors . 2001 . Regional climate information, evaluation and pro-jections. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group Ito the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (eds J. T. Houghton , D. J. Griggs , M. Noguer , P. J. van der Linden , X. Dai , K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , United Kingdom .
  20. Greatbatch , R. J. and Jung , T . 2007 . Local versus tropical diabatic heating and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate 20 , 2058 - 2075 .
  21. Haugen , J. E. and Iversen , T. 2008 . Response in extremes of daily pre-cipitation and wind from a downscaled multi-model ensemble of an-thropogenic global climate change scenarios. Tellus 60A , this issue .
  22. Hasselmann , K. 1993 . Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate change . J. Climate 6 , 1957 1969 .
  23. Hurrell , J. W. 1996 . Influence of variations in extratropical winter-time teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature. Geophys. Res.Lett . 23 , 665 - 668 .
  24. Iversen , T. , Barkmeijer , J. and Palmer , T. N. 2003 . Optimal forcing per-turbations for the atmosphere. RegClim Phase III-General Technical Report 7 , 107 - 135 .
  25. Iversen , T. , Kristiansen , J. , Jung , T. and Barkmeijer , J . 2006 . Optimal forcing sensitivity patterns for changes in northern hemispheric flows in the atmosphere. RegClim Phase III-General Technical Report 9 , 21 - 49 .
  26. Jung , T. 2005 . Systematic errors of the atmospheric circulation in the ECMWF forecasting system . Quart. J. Roy. MeteoroL Soc . 131 , 1045 1073 .
  27. Jung , T. and Barkmeijer , J. 2006. Sensitivity of the tropospheric circula-tion to changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev . 134 , doi: 10.1175/MWR3178.1 .
  28. Jung , T. , Barkmeijer , J. , Coutinho , M. M. and Mazeran , C . 2003 . Sensi-tivities and singular vectors with moist norms. ECMWF Workshop on Humidity Analysis, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK, 177 - 189 .
  29. Jung , T. , Palmer , T. N. and Shuns , G. J. 2005 . Influence of a stochas-tic parameterization on the frequency of occurrence of North Pa-cific weather regimes in the ECMWF model. Geophys. Res. Lett . 32 , L23811, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024248 .
  30. Kanestrøm , I. , Pedersen , K. and Slatun , H. 1985 . Major stationary ridges and troughs at 500mb . Geophysica Norvegica 33 , 1 40 .
  31. Kimoto , M. and Ghil , M. 1993 . Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part I: methodology and hemispheric regimes . J. Atmos. Sci . 50 , 2625 2643 .
  32. Klinker , E., Rabier, E and Gelaro, E 1998. Estimation of key analysis errors using the adjoint technique . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 124 , 1909– 1933 .
  33. Kumar , A. and Hoerling , M. P. 1998 . On the specification of regional SSTs in AGCM simulations. J. Geophys. Res . 103 , 8901 - 8907 .
  34. Køltzow , M. , Iversen , T. and Haugen , J. E. 2008 . On abilities and limi-tations of atmospheric dynamical downscaling of global climate sce-narios. Tellus 60A , this issue .
  35. Lejenäs , H. and Økland , H. 1983 . Characteristics of northern hemispheric blocking as determined from long time-series of observational data . Tellus 35A , 350 362 .
  36. Lorenz , E. N. 1963 . Deterministic nonperiodic flow . J. Atmos. Sci . 20 , 130 141 .
  37. Lu , J. , Greatbatch , R. J. and Peterson , K. A. 2004 . Trend in Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation during the last half of the twentieth century. J. Climate 17 , 3745 - 3760 .
  38. Mahfouf , J.-E 1999 . influence of physical processes on the tangent-linear approximation . Tellus 51A , 147 166 .
  39. Mo , K. C. and Ghil , M. 1988 . Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes . J. Geophys. Res . 93 , 10927 10952 .
  40. Molteni , E , Tibaldi , S. and Palmer , T. N. 1990 . Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics I: observational evidence . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 124 , 495 526 .
  41. Molteni , E , Ferranti , L. , Palmer , T. N. and Viterbo , P. 1993 . A dynam-ical interpretation of the global response to equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. J. Climate 6 , 777 - 795 .
  42. Molteni , E, Kucharski , E and Corti , S. 2006 . On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales. In: Predictability of Weather and Climate (eds T. N. Palmer and R. Hage-dorn ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, UK , pp. 365 - 390 .
  43. Moore , A. M. and Kleeman , R. 1999 . Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation . J. Climate 12 , 1199 1220 .
  44. Moore , A. M., Zavala-Garay , J. , Tang , Y. , Kleeman , R. , Weaver , A. T. , and co-authors . 2006. Optimal forcing patterns for coupled models of ENSO. J. Climate 19 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI3870.1 .
  45. Nese , J. M. 1989 . Quantifying local predictability in phase space. Physica D35, 237-250.
  46. Oortwijn , J. and Barkmeijer , J. 1995 . Perturbations that optimally trigger weather regimes. J. Atmos. Sci . 52 , 3932 - 3944 .
  47. Orrell , D. 2002. Role of the metric in forecast error growth: how chaotic is the weather? Tellus 54A , 350 362 . doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.01389.x .
  48. Orrell , D. , Smith , L. , Barkmeijer , J. and Palmer , T. N. 2001 . Model error in weather forecasting. Nonl. Process. Geophys . 8 , 357 - 371 .
  49. Palmer , T. N. 1993 . A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate change . Weather 48 , 313 326 .
  50. Palmer , T. N. 1996 . Predictability of the atmosphere and oceans: from days to decades. In: Decadal Climate Variability Dynamics and Pre-dictability Volume 44. NATO ASI Series, Springer, Berlin, Heidel-berg, pp. 83 - 155 .
  51. Palmer , T. N. 1999 . A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate pre-diction . J. Climate 12 , 575 591 .
  52. Quadrelli , R. and Wallace , J. M. 2004 . A simplified linear framework for interpreting patterns of northern hemisphere wintertime climate variability. J. Clim . 17 , 3728 - 3744 .
  53. Randall , D. A. , Wood , R. A. , Bony , S. , Colman , R. , Fichefet , T. , and co-authors . 2007. Cilmate models and their evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , and co-editors. ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA .
  54. Rex , D. E 1950. Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effects upon regional climate II. The climatology of blocking action. Tellus 2 , 275 - 301 .
  55. Simmons , A. and Hollingsworth , A. 2002 . Some aspects of the improve-ment of the skill of numerical weather prediction . Quart. J. Roy. Me-teor Soc . 128 , 647 677 .
  56. Smyth , P. , Ide , K. and Ghil , M. 1999 . Multiple regimes in Northern Hemisphere height fields via mixture model clustering . J. Atmos. Sci . 56 , 3704 3723 .
  57. Stephenson , D. B. , Hannachi , A. and O’Neill , A . 2004 . On the existence of multiple climate regimes . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 130 , 583 - 605 .
  58. Thompson , D. W. J. and Wallace , J. M. 1998 . The Artic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett . 25 , 1297 - 1300 .
  59. Thompson , D. W. J. and Wallace , J. M. 2000 . Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: month-to-month variability. J. Clim . 13 , 1000 - 1016 .
  60. Uppala , S. M. , Milberg , P. W., Simmons , A. J. , Andrae , U. , da Costa Bechtold, and co-authors . 2005 . The ERA-40 re-analysis . Quart. J. Roy. MeteoroL Soc . 131 , 2961 3012 . doi: 10.1256/qj.04.176 .
  61. Wallace , J. M. 2000 . North Atlantic Oscillation/annular mode: two paradigms-one phenomenon. Q. J. Roy. Meteo. Soc . 126 , 791 - 805 .
  62. Wallace , J. M. and Gutzler , D. S. 1981 . Teleconnections in the geopoten-tial height field during the Northern Hemispheric winter. Mon. Wea. Rev . 109 , 784 - 812 .
  63. Wallace , J. M. , Zhang , Y. and Bajuk , L. 1996 . Interpretation of inter-decadal trends in Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature. J. Climate 9 , 249 - 259 .
  64. Wu , Q. and Straus , D. M. 20044 . On the existence of hemisphere-wide climate variations. J. Geophys. Res . 109 , D06118, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004230 .
  65. Wu , Q. and Straus , D. M. 2004b . AO, COWL, and observed climate trends . J. Climate 17 , 2139 2156 .
Language: English
Page range: 528 - 546
Submitted on: May 1, 2007
Accepted on: Dec 19, 2007
Published on: Jan 1, 2008
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2008 T. Iversen, J. Kristiansen, T. Jung, J. Barkmeijer, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.