Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites

Stein Beldring; Torill Engen-Skaugen; Eirik J. Førland; Lars A. Roald

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00306.x

Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites

Tellus

Volume 60 (2008): Issue 3

By: Stein Beldring, Torill Engen-Skaugen, Eirik J. Førland and Lars A. Roald

Open Access

|Jan 2008

Abstract

Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max-Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations from the regional climate model were transferred to meteorological station sites using two different approaches, the delta change or perturbation method and an empirical adjustment procedure that reproduces observed monthly means and standard deviations for the control period. These climate scenarios were used for driving a spatially distributed version of the HBV hydrological model, yielding a set of simulations for the baseline period 1961– 1990 and projections of climate change impacts on hydrological processes for the period 2071–2100. A comparison between the two methods used for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites is provided by comparing the results from the hydrological model for basins located in different parts of Norway. Projected changes in runoff are linked to changes in the snow regime. Snow cover will be more unstable and the snowmelt flood will occur earlier in the year. Increased rainfall leads to higher runoff in the autumn and winter.

References

Andréassen , L. M. , Elvehoy , H. , Johannesson , T. , Oerlemans , J. , Beldring , S. and van den Broeke , M. 2006 . Modelling the climate sensitivity of Storbreen and Engabreen, Norway . Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Report no . 3/2006 , 39 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Andréasson , J. , Bergstrom , S. , Carlsson , B. , Graham , L. P. and Lind-strom , G. 2004 . Hydrological change . Climate Change Impact Simu-lations for Sweden. Ambio 33 ( 4-5 ), 228 – 234 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Beldring , S. , Roald , L. A. and Volcso , A. 2002 . Avrenningskart for Norge. Arsmiddelverdier for avrenning 1961-1990. (Map of annual runoff for Norway for the period 1961-1990 .) Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Document no . 2/2002 , 49 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Beldring , S. , Engeland , K. , Roald , L. A., Sw1thun , N. R. and VolcsO , A. 2003 . Estimation of parameters in a distributed precipitation-runoff model for Norway. HydroL Earth SysL Sci . 7 , 304 - 316 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bergstróm , S. , Andreasson , J. , Beldring , S. , Carlsson , B. , Graham , L. P. , and co-authors. 2003. Climate change impacts on hydropower in the Nordic countries, State of the art and discussion of principles. Climate, Water and Energy project, Report no. I , 40 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bj&ørge , D. , Haugen , J. E. and Nordeng , T. E. 2000 . Future climate in Norway. Dynamical downscaling experiments within the RegClim project. Research Report no. 103, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bronstert , A. 2004 . Rainfall-runoff modelling for assessing impacts of climate and land-use change . HydroL Process . 18 , 567 – 570 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Daly , C. , Neilson , R. P. and Phillips , D. L. 1994 . A statistical-topographic model for mapping precipitation over mountainous terrain . J. AppL Meteorol . 33 , 140 – 158 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Engeland , K. and Gottschalk , L. 2002 . Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model . HydroL Earth Syst. Sc i . 6 , 883 – 898 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Engeland , K. , Slcaugen , T. E. , Haugen , J. E. , Beldring , S. and Forland , E. J. 2004 . Comparison of evaporation estimated by the HIRHAM and GWB models for present climate and climate change scenarios . Nor-wegian Meteorological Institute , met.no Report no. 17/2004 Climate , 26 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Engen-Skaugen , T. Roald , L. A. , Beldring , S. , Forland , E. J. , Tveito , 0 . E., and co-authors. 2005. Climate change impacts on water balance in Norway. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Met.no Report no. 1/2005 Climate, 82 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Engen-Skaugen , T. 2007 . Refinement of dynamically downscaled pre-cipitation and temperature scenarios . Clim. Change 84 , 365 – 382 , doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9251-6 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Engen-Skaugen , T. , Haugen , J. E. and Tveito , O. E. 2007 . Temperature scenarios for Norway: from regional to local scale. Clim. Dyn . 29 , 441 – 453 , doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0241-1 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Fowler , A. 1999 . Potential climate change impacts on water re-sources in the Auckland Region (New Zealand) . Clim. Res . 11 , 221 – 245 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Frei , C. , Christensen , J. H. , Deque , M. , Jacob , D. , Jones , R. G. , and co-authors. 2003. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J. Geophys. Res . 108 ( D3 ), 4124 , doi: 10.1029/2002JD002287 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Fùrland , E. J. , Allerup , P. , Dahlstrom , B. , Elomaa , E. , Jonsson , T. , and co-authors . 1996 . Manual for operational correction of Nordic precip-itation data. Norwegian Meteorological Institute DNMI Klima Report 24/96, 66 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Giorgi , F. , Hewitson , B. , Christensen , J. , Hulme , M. , Von Storch , H. , and co-authors. 2001. Regional climate information—evaluation and pro-jections. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of International Panel on Climate Change (eds J. T. Houghton , Y. Ding , D. J. Griggs , M. Noguer , P. J. van der Linden , X. Dai , K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson ), Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , 583 - 638 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gordon , C. , Cooper , C. , Senior , C. A. , Banks , H. , Gregory , J. M., and co-authors . 2000. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transport in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim. Dyn . 16 , 147 - 168 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gottschalk , L. , Beldring , S. , Engeland , K. , Tallalcsen , L., Swlthun , N. R. , and co-authors . 2001 . Regional/macroscale hydrological modelling: a Scandinavian experience. Hydrol. Sci. J . 46 , 963 - 982 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hay , L. E. , Wilby , R. L. and Leavesley , G. H. 2000 . A comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States . J. Am. Water Resour Assoc . 36 , 387 – 397 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hosking , J. R. M. and Wallis , J. R. 1997 . Regional Frequency Analy-sis: An Approach Based on L-Moments . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge , UK .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Jiang , T. , Chen , Y. D. , Xu , C. -Y. , Chen , X. , Chen , X. , 2007. Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydro-logical models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China. J. Hydrol . 336 , 316 – 333 , doi: 10.1016/j.hydro1.2007.01.010 .
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Kaste , I. Wright , R. F. , Barkved , L. J. , Bjerkeng , B. , Engen-Slcaugen , T. , and co-authors . 2006. Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and fjord system. Sci. Total Environ . 365 , 200 - 222
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Klemeš , V. 1986 . Operational testing of hydrological simulation models . Hydrol. Sci. J . 31 , 13 – 24 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Lappegard , G. , Beldring , S. , Roald , L. A. , Engen-Slcaugen , T. and Forland , E. J. 2006 . Projection of future streamflow in glaciated and non-glaciated catchments in Norway. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Consultancy Report A no. 9/2006, 64 pp.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Lettenmaier , D. R , Wood , A. W. , Palmer , R. N. , Wood , E. F. and Stalchiv , E. Z. 1999 . Water resources implications of global warming: a U.S. regional perspective . Clim. Change 43 , 537 – 579 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Lindsträm , G. , Johansson , B. , Persson , M. , Gardelin , M. and Bergstrom , S. 1997 . Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model. J. Hydrol . 201 , 272 - 288 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Matheussen , B. , Kirschbaum , R. L. , Goodman , I. A. , O’Donnel , G. M. and Lettenmaier , D. P. 2000 . Effects of land cover change on stream-flow in the interior Columbia River Basin (USA and Canada). Hydrol. Process . 14 , 867 - 885 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Meehl , G. A. , Stocker , T. F. , Collins , W. D. , Friedlingstein , P. , Gaye , A. T., and co-authors . 2007. Global climate projections. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , K. B. Averyt , M. Tignor and H. L. Miller ), Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA , 747 - 843 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Merz , B. and Plate , E. J. 1997 . An analysis of the effects of spatial variability of soil and soil moisture on runoff . Water Resour Res . 33 , 2909 – 2922 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Middelkoop , H. , Daamen , K. , Gellens , D. , Grabs , W. , Kwadijk , J. C. J. , and co-authors . 2001 . Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin . Clim. Change 49 , 105 - 128 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Nalciéenovié , N. , Alcamo , J. , Davis , G. , de Vries , B. , Fenhann , J. , and co-authors . 2000. IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cam-bridge Univ. Press , Cambridge . 599 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Peixoto , J. P. and Oort , A. H. 1992 . Physics of Climate . American Institute of Physics , New York , 520 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Reynard , N. S. , Prudhomme , C. and Crooks , S. M. 2001 . The flood char-acteristics of large U.K. Rivers: potential effects of changing climate and land use . Clim. Change 48 , 343 – 359 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Roald , L. A. , Beldring , S. Skaugen , T. E. , Forland , E. J. and Benestad , R . 2006 . Climate change impacts on streamflow in Norway. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Consultancy Report A no. 1/2006,74 pp.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Roeckner , E. , Bengtsson , L. , Feichter , J. , Lelieveld , J. and Rodhe , H. 1999 . Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulphur cycle . J. Clim . 12 , 3004 – 3032 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Thornthwaite , C. W. 1948 . An approach toward a rational classification of climate . Geographic. Rev . 38 , 55 – 94 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Trenberth , K. E. , Jones , P. D. , Ambenje , R , Bojariu , R. , Easterling , D., co-authors . 2007. Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , K. B. Averyt , M. Tignor and H. L. Miller ) Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA , 235 - 335 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Tveito , O. E. and Roald , L. A. 2005 . Relations between long-term vari-ations in seasonal runoff and large scale atmospheric circulation pat-terns. Met.no report no 7/2005 Climate, 43 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Van der Linden , S. and Woo , M. K. 2003 . Transferability of hydrolog-ical model parameters between basins in data-sparse areas, subarctic Canada . J. Hydrol . 270 , 182 – 194 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Vilchamar-Schuler , D. and Forland , E. J. 2006 . Comparison of snow water equivalent estimated by the HIRHAM and the HBV (GWB) models . Current conditions (1961-1990) and scenarios for the future (2071-2100). Norwegian Meteorological Institute , Met.no Report no. 6/2006 Climate , 36 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Węlarczyk , S. 1998 . The interdependence and applicability of some statistical quality measures for hydrological models . J. Hydrol . 206 , 98 – 103 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wood , A. W. , Leung , L. R. , Sridhar , V. and Lettenmaier , D. P. 2004 . Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs . aim. Change 62 , 189 – 216 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Xu , C.-Y. and Singh , V. P. 2001 . Evaluation and generalization of temperature-based methods for calculating evaporation . Hydrol. Pro-cess . 15 , 305 – 319 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00306.x | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Page range: 439 - 450

Submitted on: Apr 20, 2007

Accepted on: Nov 23, 2007

Published on: Jan 1, 2008

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2008 Stein Beldring, Torill Engen-Skaugen, Eirik J. Førland, Lars A. Roald, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 60 (2008): Issue 3