Climate variability in Scandinavia for the past millennium simulated by an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

Isabelle Gouirand; Anders Moberg; Eduardo Zorita

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00207.x

Climate variability in Scandinavia for the past millennium simulated by an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

Tellus

Volume 59 (2007): Issue 1

By: Isabelle Gouirand, Anders Moberg and Eduardo Zorita

Open Access

|Jan 2007

Abstract

The atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G, run with solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing for the past millennium, is used to analyse winter and summer temperature variability in Scandinavia. Relationships with atmospheric circulation, North Atlantic SSTs and Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures are investigated at timescales longer and shorter than 10 yr. The simulated response to volcanic forcing is also analysed. Realistic relationships with the atmospheric circulation, with some deficiencies in summer, are found. High-frequency co-variations with SSTs and NH temperatures are too weak, but low-frequency co-variations with NH temperatures in winter are apparently too strong. The summer cooling response to volcanic forcing is realistic, but the expected winter warming is absent. The simulated long-term temperature evolution agrees broadly with proxy data. Combinations of several forcing factors can lead to decadal and multidecadal anomalies from the centennial trends. Decreased solar forcing can account for cold intervals in both summer and winter. A systematic negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase can explain the coldest winter temperatures during 1590–1650. Several strong volcanic forcing events can have contributed to a simultaneous summer cooling. Proxy data also indicate cold summers and winters, and a negative NAO in winter, in the same period.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00207.x | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 30 - 49

Submitted on: Sep 15, 2005

Accepted on: Aug 28, 2006

Published on: Jan 1, 2007

Published by: Stockholm University Press

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© 2007 Isabelle Gouirand, Anders Moberg, Eduardo Zorita, published by Stockholm University Press
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Volume 59 (2007): Issue 1