Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique Cover

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique

Tellus
Volume 58 (2006): Issue 4
By:  and    
Open Access
|Jan 2006
References

References

  1. Allen , M. R. and Ingram , W. J. 2002 . Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle . Nature 419 , 224 – 232 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  2. Andreae , M. O. , Jones , C. D. and Cox , P. M. 2005 . Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future. Nature 435 , 1187 – 1190 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  3. Brier , G. W. 1950 . Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of prob-ability . Mon. Wea. Rev . 78 , 1 – 3 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  4. Candille , G. and Talagrand , O. 2005 . Evaluation of probabilistic pre-diction systems for a scalar variable. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 131 , 2131 – 2150 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  5. Christensen , J. H. , Carter , T. , and Giorgi , E 2002 . PRUDENCE employs new methods to assess European climate change . EOS 83 , 147 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  6. Cubasch , U. , Meehl , G. A. , Boer , G. J. , Stouffer , R. J. , Dix , M., and co-authors . 2001. Projections of future climate change. In: Climate change 2001. The Scientific Basis (eds J. T. Houghton , Y. Ding , D. J. Griggs , M. Noguer , P. J. van der Linden , X. Dai , K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge . 525 – 582 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  7. Giorgi , E and Meams , L. O. 2002 . Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM sim-ulations via the “reliability ensemble averaging” (REA) method . J. Climate 15 , 1141 – 1158 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  8. Giorgi , E and Meams , L. O. 2003 . Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method . Geo-phys. Res. Lett . 30 , 1629 . 10.1029/2003.GL0171.30 .
    Open DOISearch in Google ScholarBack to article
  9. Harvey , L. D. D. 2004 . Characterizing the annual-mean climatic ef-fect of anthropogenic CO2 and aerosol emissions in eight coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs . Climate Dyn . 23 , 569 – 599 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  10. Hellström , C. , Chen , D. , Achberger , C. and Räisänen , J. 2001 . A com-parison of climate change scenarios for Sweden based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of monthly precipitation . Climate Res . 19 , 45 – 55 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  11. Hersbach , H. 2000 . Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems . Wea. and Forecasting 15 , 559 – 570 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  12. Houghton , J. T. , Ding , Y. , Griggs , D. J. , Noguer , M. , van der Linden , P. J. , and co-authors. 2001. Climate Change 2001. Contribution of Working Group Ito the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 881 p.
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  13. Huntingford , C. and Cox , P. M. 2000 . An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations . Climate Dyn . 16 , 575 – 586 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  14. Karoly , D. J. and Wu , Q. 2005 . Detection of regional surface temperature trends . J. Climate 18 , 4337 – 4343 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  15. Lambert , E H. , Stott , P. A. , Allen , M. R. and Palmer , M. A. 2004 . De-tection and attribution of changes in 20th century land precipitation . Geophys. Res. Lett . 31 , L10203 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  16. Manabe , S. and Wetherald , R. T. 1987 . Large-scale changes of soil wet-ness induced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide . J. Atmos. Sci . 44 , 1211 – 1235 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  17. Mitchell , T. D. 2003 . Pattern scaling: an examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climate . Climatic Change 60 , 217 – 242 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  18. Mitchell , J. E B. , Johns , T. C. , Eagles , M. , Ingram , W. J. and Davis , R. A. 1999 . Towards the construction of climate change scenarios . Climatic Change 41 , 547 – 581 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  19. Mitchell , T. D. , Carter , T. R. , Jones , P. D. , Hulme , M. , and New , M. 2004 . A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100) . Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55 , 30 p .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  20. Nakiéenovié , N. and Swart , R. (eds.) 2000 . Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press , Cambridge . 599p.
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  21. New , M. and Hulme , M. 2000 . Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte-Carlo approach . Integrated Assessment 1 , 203 – 213 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  22. Räisänen , J. 2001a . CO2-induced climate change in CMIP2 experiments. Quantification of agreement and role of internal variability . J. Climate 14 , 2088 – 2104 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  23. Räisänen , J. 2001b. Hiilidioksidin lisääntymisen vaikutus Pohjois-Euroopan ilmastoon globaaleissa ilmastomalleissa. Terra 113, 139-151. (The impact of increasing carbon dioxide on the climate of north-ern Europe in global climate models; in Finnish with English abstract and figure and table captions) .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  24. Räisänen , J. and Alexandersson , H. 2003 . A probabilistic view on recent and near future climate change in Sweden . Tellus 55A , 113 – 125 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  25. Santer , B. D. , Wigley , T. M. L. , Schlesinger , M. E. and Mitchell , J. E B. 1990 . Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results. Report 47, Max-Planck Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany , 29p .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  26. Stainforth , D. A. , Aina , T. , Christensen , C. , Collins , M. , Fauli , N. , and co-authors. 2005. Uncertainty in the predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433 , 403 – 406 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  27. Stanski , H. R. , Wilson , L. J. and Burrows , W. R. 1989 . Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. Research report 89-5 , Atmospheric Environment Service Forecast Research Division , Canada .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  28. Stott , P. A. , Tett , S. E B. , Jones , G. J. , Allen , M. R. , Mitchell , J. E B. and co-authors . 2000 . External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings . Science 290 , 2133 – 2137 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  29. Wilks , D. S. 1995 . Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences . Academic Press , San Diego . 467 p .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00189.x | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Journal RSS Feed
Language: English
Page range: 461 - 472
Submitted on: Jan 3, 2006
Accepted on: Mar 8, 2006
Published on: Jan 1, 2006
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2006 J. Räisänen, L. Ruokolainen, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 58 (2006): Issue 4
Previous article
Next article