The representation of the analysis effect in three error simulation techniques

Loïk Berre; Simona Ecaterina Ştefănescu; Margarida Belo Pereira

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00165.x

The representation of the analysis effect in three error simulation techniques

Tellus

Volume 58 (2006): Issue 2

By: Loïk Berre, Simona Ecaterina Ştefănescu and Margarida Belo Pereira

Open Access

|Jan 2006

Abstract

Three error simulation techniques are compared formally, in particular regarding their representation of the analysis step. The associated results are moreover examined for the Aladin-France limited-area model, which is coupled with the Arpege global model.

It is first shown that the analysis error equation involves the same operators as the analysis equation. This implies that the analysis ensemble approach is appropriate, as the analysis equation is used to transform the background and observation dispersions into the analysis dispersion.

By contrast, the standard NMC method relies essentially on the analysis increment equation, which contributes to a large extent to the excessive emphasis on the large-scale structures. The so-called lagged NMC method is shown to be closely related to the Arpege/Aladin model differences.

The analysis ensemble approach gives error spectra that are intermediate between those of the two other methods.

This is in agreement with the representation of the initial and lateral boundary uncertainties, in a way that is consistent with the influence of the analysis equation and with the short forecast ranges.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00165.x | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 196 - 209

Submitted on: Feb 17, 2005

Accepted on: Sep 30, 2005

Published on: Jan 1, 2006

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2006 Loïk Berre, Simona Ecaterina Ştefănescu, Margarida Belo Pereira, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 58 (2006): Issue 2