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A decadal inversion of CO2 using the Global Eulerian–Lagrangian Coupled Atmospheric model (GELCA): sensitivity to the ground-based observation network Cover

A decadal inversion of CO2 using the Global Eulerian–Lagrangian Coupled Atmospheric model (GELCA): sensitivity to the ground-based observation network

Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology
Volume 69 (2017): Issue 1
By: ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,   and    
Open Access
|Jan 2017
Figures & tables

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1.

Schematic diagram of GELCA inverse modelling framework.

Fig. 2.

Illustration of the inversion process employed in this study. The t indicates the time step on monthly basis. The modelled CO2 concentrations z mod are sum of the background concentrations z b and the presubtracted concentrations z p calculated by GELCA. In each inversion cycle, the modelled concentrations are compared to observations z ob and the state vector s is optimized within a 3-month window. Optimized fluxes are incorporated into the background concentration (zb′) before calculating for the next time step. The number of asterisks in the upper right of s shows how many times a set of monthly fluxes has been optimized previously from past cycles. The prime in the upper right of z b means that the z b has been updated. The dashed arrows mean monthly calculations by GELCA.

Fig. 3.

Definitions of the 64 regions used in the inversion.

Table 1.

Observational sites used in this study, including the model–data mismatch results for the control case inversion. Check marks in the last four columns show whether the site is used in the indicated case.

CodeSite nameLab.Platform, Sampling 1 Lat. 2 Long. 2 Altitude (m) 2 Bias (ppm)RMSE (ppm)Correlation coefficient RCTNFSEL 3 NA 3 ABPArembepe, BahiaNOAAgf12.76°S38.16°W6−0.340.410.980✔　✔✔ALTAlert, NunavutNOAAgf82.45°N62.51°W205−0.220.690.997✔✔✔✔ECgi82.45°N62.51°W210✔　✔✔AMTArgyle, MaineNOAAgp45.03°N68.68°W1570.373.720.928✔　✔✔NOAAti45.03°N68.68°W160✔　✔✔ASCAscension IslandNOAAgf7.97°S14.40°W90−0.290.500.997✔✔✔✔ASKAssekremNOAAgf23.26°N5.63°E1847−0.050.520.997✔✔✔✔AZRTerceira Island, AzoresNOAAgf38.77°N27.38°W240.241.180.985✔✔✔✔BALBaltic SeaNOAAgf55.35°N17.22°E28−1.863.720.926✔✔✔✔BAOBoulder Atmospheric Observatory, ColoradoNOAAgp40.05°N105.00°W1584−1.513.280.783✔✔✔✔NOAAti40.05°N105.00°W1884✔　✔a✔aBGIBradgate, IowaNOAAap42.82°N94.41°W600–8100−0.76–0.09 0.52–3.870.879–0.968　　✔　BGUBegurLSCEgf41.97°N 3.23°E13−1.013.240.926　　✔✔BHDBaring Head StationNOAAgf41.41°S174.87°E95−0.270.520.995✔✔✔✔BKTBukit KototabangNOAAgf0.20°S100.32°E8503.543.120.813✔✔✔✔BMESt. Davids Head, BermudaNOAAgf32.37°N64.65°W170.221.190.982✔✔✔✔BMWTudor Hill, BermudaNOAAgf32.26°N64.88°W600.151.060.991✔✔✔✔BNEBeaver Crossing, NebraskaNOAAap40.8°N97.18°W600–8200−0.68–−0.110.67–3.500.868–0.990　　✔　BRABratt’s Lake SaskatchewanECgi51.2°N104.7°W630−0.033.150.908　　✔✔BRWBarrow, AlaskaNOAAgf71.32°N156.61°W28−0.280.810.995✔✔✔✔NOAAgi71.32°N156.61°W28✔　✔✔BSCBlack Sea, ConstantaNOAAgf44.18°N28.66°E5−5.245.170.889✔✔　　CARBriggsdale, ColoradoNOAAap40.37°N104.3°W1800–11,900−0.11–0.220.64–1.070.989–0.996　　✔　CBACold Bay, AlaskaNOAAgf55.21°N162.72°W25−0.511.070.991✔✔✔✔CDLCandle Lake, SaskatchewanECgi53.99°N105.12°W630−0.142.570.957✔　✔✔CFACape Ferguson, QueenslandCSIROgf19.28°S147.06°E5−0.280.720.993✔　✔✔CGOCape Grim, TasmaniaNOAAgf40.68°S144.69°E164−0.140.200.999✔✔✔✔CHMChibougamau, QuebecECgi49.68°N74.3°W4230.042.160.953　　✔✔CHRChristmas IslandNOAAgf1.70°N157.15°W5−0.270.300.998✔✔✔✔CIBCentro de Investigacion de la Baja AtmosferaNOAAgf41.81°N4.93°W850−0.802.740.863　✔✔✔CMACape May, New JerseyNOAAap38.83°N74.31°W300–8200−0.25–−0.070.71–3.680.894–0.988　　✔　CONCONTRAILNIES/MRIaf　　3500–12,200−0.54–−0.140.43–0.760.987–0.996　　✔　CPSChapais, QuebecECgi49.82°N74.98°W3870.081.590.884　　✔✔CPTCape PointNOAAgf34.35°S18.49°E260−0.040.300.999　✔✔✔SAWSgi34.35°S18.49°E260　　✔✔CRICape RamaCSIROgf15.08°N73.83°E66−0.531.800.981　　✔✔CRZCrozet IslandNOAAgf46.43°S51.85°E202−0.220.260.999✔✔✔✔CYACasey, AntarcticaCSIROgf66.28°S110.52°E55−0.240.210.999✔　✔✔DNDDahlen, North DakotaNOAAap47.5°N99.24°W500–8100−0.39–−0.160.66–1.860.960–0.990　　✔　DRPDrake PassageNOAAsf59.0°S64.49°W10−0.190.290.997　　✔✔EGBEgbert, OntarioECgi44.23°N79.78°W251−0.205.040.904✔　✔✔EICEaster IslandNOAAgf27.16°S109.43°W550.320.740.994✔✔✔✔ESPEstevan Point, British ColumbiaCSIROgf49.38°N126.54°W47−0.411.460.962　　✔✔ECgi49.38°N126.54°W47　　✔✔NOAAap49.38°N126.54°W100–5800−0.43–−0.130.88–1.360.981–0.991　　✔　ESTEsther, AlbertaECgi51.66°N110.21°W710−0.013.230.913　　✔✔ETLEast Trout Lake, SaskatchewanECgi54.35°N104.98°W597−0.312.040.961✔　✔✔NOAAap54.35°N104.98°W600–7800−0.35–0.010.94–1.770.963–0.981　　✔　FIKFinokalia, CreteLSCEgf35.34°N25.67°E150−0.091.850.948　　✔✔FNSNorth Sea Platform (F3)RUGgi54.85°N4.73°E46−1.251.640.956　　✔✔FSDFraserdaleECgi49.88°N81.57°W2500.302.910.955✔　✔✔FTLFortalezaNOAAap3.52°S38.28°W100–4300−0.39–0.020.45–0.800.209–0.973　　✔　FWIFairchild, WisconsinNOAAap44.66°N90.96°W600–8100−0.49–0.790.59–3.050.909–0.969　　✔　GMIMariana IslandsNOAAgf13.39°N144.66°E6−0.110.580.997✔✔✔✔HAAMolokai Island, HawaiiNOAAap21.23°N158.95°W300–8100−0.16–0.270.39–0.660.988–0.995　　✔　HBAHalley Station, AntarcticaNOAAgf75.61°S26.21°W35−0.120.200.999✔✔✔✔HDPHidden Peak (Snowbird), UtahNCARgi40.56°N111.65°W33690.001.290.966　　✔✔HEIHeidelbergUHEI-IUPgi49.42 N8.68°E146−4.378.170.855　　　　HFMHarvard Forest, MassachusettsNOAAap42.54°N72.17°W600–8100−0.21–0.220.66–2.430.959–0.991　　✔　HILHomer, IllinoisNOAAap40.07°N87.91°W600–8100−0.24–−0.170.72–2.980.926–0.992　　✔　HPBHohenpeissenbergNOAAgf47.80°N11.02°E9902.965.030.854✔✔✔✔HUNHegyhatsalNOAAgf46.95°N16.65°E3440.275.280.910✔✔✔✔HMSti46.95°N16.65°E363　　✔✔ICEStorhofdi, VestmannaeyjarNOAAgf63.40°N20.29°W100−0.400.810.995✔✔✔✔IZOIzana, Tenerife, Canary IslandsNOAAgf28.31°N16.50°W2378−0.160.690.995　✔✔✔AEMETgi28.31°N16.50°W2381　　✔✔JFJJungfraujochKUPgi46.55°N7.98°E3580−0.051.920.940　　✔✔KEYKey Biscayne, FloridaNOAAgf25.67°N80.16°W60.070.820.993✔✔✔✔KUMCape Kumukahi, HawaiiNOAAgf19.52°N154.82°W8−0.340.770.994✔✔✔✔KZDSary TaukumNOAAgf44.08°N76.87°E595−1.462.500.946✔✔✔✔KZMPlateau AssyNOAAgf43.25°N77.88°E25240.591.620.97✔✔✔✔LEFPark Falls, WisconsinNOAAgp45.95°N90.27°W715−0.053.290.939✔　✔✔NOAAti45.95°N90.27°W868✔　✔a✔aNOAAap45.95°N90.27°W600–4000−0.29–0.531.11–3.630.927–0.985　　✔　LJOLa Jolla, CaliforniaSIOgf32.9°N117.3°W200.700.780.993　　✔✔LLBLac La Biche, AlbertaNOAAgf54.95°N112.45°W546−0.384.030.912　✔✔✔ECgi54.95°N112.45°W550✔　✔✔LMPLampedusaNOAAgf35.52°N12.62°E50−0.411.520.941✔✔✔✔LPOIle GrandeLSCEgf48.8°N3.58°W20−0.432.350.93　　✔✔LUTLutjewad, NetherlandsRUGgi53.4°N6.35°E61−3.115.400.81　　✔✔MAAMawson Station, AntarcticaCSIROgf67.62°S62.87°E42−0.270.240.999✔　✔✔MEXHigh Altitude Global Climate Observation CenterNOAAgf18.98°N97.31°W44690.381.150.937　✔✔✔MHDMace Head, County GalwayNOAAgf53.33°N9.90°W26−0.170.950.993✔✔✔✔MIDSand Island, MidwayNOAAgf28.21°N177.38°W110.180.800.994✔✔✔✔MKNMt. KenyaNOAAgf0.06°S37.30°E36490.611.780.939✔✔✔✔MLOMauna Loa, HawaiiNOAAgf19.54°N155.58°W3402−0.140.490.997✔✔✔✔NOAAgi19.54°N155.58°W3437✔　✔✔MNMMinamitorishimaJMAgi24.28°N153.98°E28−0.070.660.996　　✔✔MQAMacquarie IslandCSIROgf54.48°S158.97°E13−0.180.310.999✔　✔✔NATMaxaranguapeNOAAgf5.51°S35.26°W20−0.380.800.792　✔✔✔NHAWorcester, MassachusettsNOAAap42.95°N70.63°W200–8000−0.52–0.140.80–2.670.947–0.990　　✔　NMBGobabebNOAAgf23.58°S15.03°E461−0.310.560.991✔✔✔✔NWRNiwot Ridge, ColoradoNOAAgf40.05°N105.59°W35260.101.160.980✔✔✔✔NCARgi40.05°N105.59°W3528✔　✔✔OBNObninskNOAAgf55.11°N36.60°E484−0.352.540.956✔　✔✔OILOglesby, IllinoisNOAAap41.28°N88.94°W500–8100−0.11–0.360.65–3.170.874–0.964　　✔　ORLOrleansLSCEaf47.83°N2.5°E200–6000−0.26–0.820.97–4.080.882–0.986　　✔　OTAOtway, VictoriaCSIROgf38.52°S142.82°E50−0.440.320.992　　✔✔OXKOchsenkopfNOAAgf50.03°N11.81°E11850.033.840.889✔✔✔✔PALPallas-Sammaltunturi, GAW StationNOAAgf67.97°N24.12°E565−0.312.030.973✔✔✔✔FMIgi67.97°N24.12°E565　　✔✔PDMPic Du MidiLSCEgf42.94°N0.14°E2877−0.451.730.971　　✔✔PFAPoker Flat, AlaskaNOAAap65.07°N147.29°W100–7600−0.35–0.010.73–0.970.990–0.995　　✔　POCPacific OceanNOAAsf　　20−0.36–0.300.31–0.550.994–0.998✔✔✔✔PSAPalmer Station, AntarcticaNOAAgf64.92°S64.00°W15−0.160.270.999✔✔✔✔PTAPoint Arena, CaliforniaNOAAgf38.95°N123.74°W22−2.472.930.93✔✔✔✔RBARoof Butte, ArizonaNCARgi36.46°N109.10°W30040.041.130.928　　✔✔RPBRagged PointNOAAgf13.16°N59.43°W20−0.080.420.998✔✔✔✔RTARarotongaNOAAap21.25°S159.83°W15–6500−0.30–0.120.36–0.510.998–0.999　　✔　RYORyoriJMAgi39.03°N141.82°E280−0.471.650.977　　✔✔SANSantaremNOAAap2.85°S54.95°W100–5200−0.54–0.660.47–2.160.935–0.996　　✔　IPENaf2.85°S54.95°W100–4400　　✔　SCACharleston, South CarolinaNOAAap32.77°N79.55°W200–13,300−0.39–−0.140.56–2.810.912–0.994　　✔　SCTBeech Island, South CarolinaNOAAgp33.41°N81.83°W420−0.313.900.850　　✔✔NOAAti33.41°N81.83°W420✔　✔✔aSEYMahe IslandNOAAgf4.68°S55.53°E3−0.180.570.996✔✔✔✔SGPSouthern Great Plains, OklahomaNOAAgf36.61°N97.49°W3740.243.350.913✔✔✔✔LBNLgi36.61°N97.49°W374✔　✔✔NOAAap36.61°N97.49°W200–13,000−0.34–−0.030.75–3.290.849–0.984　　✔　SHMShemya Island, AlaskaNOAAgf52.71°N174.13°E28−0.551.050.992✔✔✔✔SISShetland IslandsCSIROgf60.09°N1.25°W300.110.730.986✔　✔✔SMOTutuilaNOAAgf14.25°S170.56°W47−0.160.310.999✔✔✔✔NOAAgi14.25°S170.56°W60✔　✔✔SNPShenandoah National ParkNOAAti38.62°N78.35°W1025−0.352.610.926✔　✔n✔nSPLStorm Peak Laboratory (Desert Research Institute)NCARgi40.45°N106.73°W3219−0.521.590.949✔　✔✔SPOSouth Pole, AntarcticaNOAAgf89.98°S24.80°W2821−0.150.121.000✔✔✔✔NOAAgi89.98°S24.80°W2821✔　✔✔STMOcean Station MNOAAgf66.00°N2.00°E7−0.080.950.991✔✔✔✔STRSutro Tower, San Francisco, CaliforniaNOAAgp37.76°N122.45°W486−1.974.860.721✔　✔✔SUMSummitNOAAgf72.60°N38.42°W3215−0.080.840.994✔✔✔✔SYOSyowa Station, AntarcticaNOAAgf69.00°S39.58°E11−0.230.181.000✔✔✔✔NIPRgi69.00°S39.58°E21　　✔✔TAPTae-ahn PeninsulaNOAAgf36.74°N126.13°E16−1.472.650.953✔✔✔✔TDFTierra Del Fuego, UshuaiaNOAAgf54.85°S68.31°W32−0.290.460.997✔✔✔✔TGCSinton, TexasNOAAap27.73°N96.86°W200–8100−0.29–−0.080.54–1.850.950–0.995　　✔　THDTrinidad Head, CaliforniaNOAAgf41.05°N124.15°W112−1.242.40.934✔✔✔✔NOAAap41.05°N124.15°W200–8100−0.30–0.160.60–1.020.987–0.992　　✔　TOTToronto, OntarioECgi43.78°N79.47°W218−2.242.910.961　　　　TRNTrainouLSCEti47.97°N2.11°E3111.254.460.886　　✔✔ULBUlaanbaatarNOAAap47.4°N106.0°E1500–6000–0.12–0.360.11–1.180.975–0.980　　✔　UTAWendover, UtahNOAAgf39.90°N113.72°W13320.081.760.969✔✔✔✔UUMUlaan UulNOAAgf44.45°N111.10°E1012−0.712.120.967✔✔✔✔WBIWest Branch, IowaNOAAgp41.72°N91.35°W621−0.284.040.887✔　✔✔NOAAti41.72°N91.35°W621✔　✔a✔aNOAAap41.72°N91.35°W600–8200−0.13–−0.030.64–2.770.915–0.991　　✔　WGCWalnut Grove, CaliforniaNOAAgp38.27°N121.49°W91−0.994.350.721✔　✔✔NOAAti38.27°N121.49°W483✔　✔a✔aWISWIS Station, Negev DesertNOAAgf30.86°N34.78°E482−0.251.730.973✔✔✔✔WKTMoody, TexasNOAAgp31.31°N97.33°W7080.162.880.895✔　✔✔NOAAti31.31°N97.33°W708✔　✔a✔aWLGMt. WaliguanNOAAgf36.29°N100.90°E3815−0.331.100.987✔✔✔✔WSASable Island, Nova ScotiaECgi43.93°N60.02°W30−0.462.270.955✔　✔✔YONYonagunijimaJMAgi24.47°N123.02°E50−0.481.440.98　　✔✔ZEPNy-Alesund, SvalbardNOAAgf78.91°N11.89°E479−0.020.860.995✔✔✔✔

1 Platform and sampling method: g, surface; a, aircraft; t, tower; s, shipboard; f, flask; i, continuous; p, programmable flask package (Turnbull et al., 2012; considered a flask sampling method in this study).

2 These parameters may change over time; only the most current information is listed in the table.

3 Temporal data selection applied in Case SEL and Case NA: a, only afternoon mean was used; n, only night-time mean was used.

Table 2.

Types of observation sites used in each case.

Case Total Surface flask Surface in situTowerShipboardAircraftControl case 154823310227Case CT906714810Case NF61600010Case SEL151813110227Case NA12481311020
Fig. 4.

Map showing the observation site locations of the different site selection cases: (a) control case (all symbols), Case SEL (green symbols removed), and Case NA (red symbols removed); (b) Case CT and (c) Case NF. Symbol shapes indicate the type of sampling: ○, surface discrete; +, surface continuous; ▾, ship; ♢, aircraft.

Fig. 5.

Comparison of global annual mean posterior fluxes: (a) net, (b) land biosphere, and (c) ocean. (d) Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) (Wolter and Timlin, 1993) for 2002–2011. Positive fluxes indicate emission and negative fluxes indicate uptake. In (a), the global annual mean atmospheric CO2 growth rate is shown with net fluxes. The CO2 growth rate in ppm are converted to the emission rates in Pg of carbon with a conversion factor of 2.12 PgC ppm−1 via simple molecular weight considerations. In (b) and (c), the global annual mean prior fluxes for land biosphere and ocean are shown, respectively.

Fig. 6.

Decadal mean (2002–11) spatial distributions of posterior fluxes for (a–c) land and (e–g) ocean regions: (a, e) control case, (b, f) Case CT, (c, g) Case NF. Prior fluxes from the (d) land biosphere and (h) ocean. Positive fluxes indicate emission and negative fluxes indicate uptake.

Table 3.

The number of data used in the inversion, mean bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (R): (a) control case, Case CT, and Case NF; and (b) control case, Case SEL, and Case NA.

Case Number of dataBias (ppm) RMSE (ppm)R(a)Control case171,6410.211.340.962Case CT78,8210.251.660.958Case NF28,5780.231.070.974(b)Control case171,6410.211.340.962Case SEL156,5490.181.290.963Case NA115,0820.201.530.958
Fig. 7.

Uncertainty reductions by region: (a) control case, (b) Case CT, and (c) Case NF.

Fig. 8.

Model–data mismatch for observation sites after inversion: (a) control case, (b) Case CT, (c) Case NF. The colour and size of the coloured circles indicate the bias and the RMSE, respectively. The size of the open circles indicates the prior uncertainty value.

Fig. 9.

Comparison of decadal mean (2002–2011) spatial distributions of posterior fluxes for the land biosphere (left panels) and ocean (right panels): (a) control case, (b) Case SEL, (c) Case NA. Positive fluxes indicate emission and negative fluxes indicate uptake.

Fig. 10.

(a) Prior and posterior land fluxes and (b) uncertainty reduction (UR) in tropical Asia (Region 33) in the control case, Case CT, and Case NF. Positive fluxes indicate emission and negative fluxes indicate uptake.

Fig. 11.

Differences between estimated annual mean regional CO2 fluxes from the (a) land biosphere and (b) ocean derived with and without aircraft observations (control case – Case NA) during 2002–11. The numbered regions are shown in Fig. 3. Positive fluxes indicate emission and negative fluxes indicate uptake.

Fig. 12.

Annually averaged atmospheric CO2 distributions at (a) 990 hPa, (b) 500 hPa, (c) 250 hPa, calculated from monthly pulsed emission from tropical Asia (Region 33) in 2008.

Fig. 13.

Monthly mean land biosphere posterior fluxes (control case – red; Case NA – green) and prior fluxes (VISIT – gray), averaged over 2002–11. Positive fluxes indicate emission and negative fluxes indicate uptake.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2017.1291158 | Journal eISSN: 1600-0889
Journal RSS Feed
Language: English
Page range: 1291158 - 1291158
Submitted on: Dec 28, 2015
Accepted on: Nov 29, 2016
Published on: Jan 1, 2017
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Keywords:
carbon cycle,
top-down approach,
flux estimation,
carbon dioxide,
inversion,
coupled model,
tropical Asia

© 2017 T. Shirai, M. Ishizawa, R. Zhuravlev, A. Ganshin, D. Belikov, M. Saito, T. Oda, V. Valsala, A.J. Gomez-Pelaez, R. Langenfelds, S. Maksyutov, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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