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Regional drought assessment using improved precipitation records under auxiliary information Cover

Regional drought assessment using improved precipitation records under auxiliary information

Tellus
Volume 72 (2020): Issue 1
By: ,  ,  ,  ,   and    
Open Access
|Jan 2020
Figures & tables

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1.

Map of the selected regions.

Table 1.

Statistics of the selected stations.

Precipitation (mm)Temperature (°C)CoordinatesRegionsStationsMeanMinMaxMeanMinMaxLat (N)Lon (E)Altitudes (m)Astor39.421.672.89.98.311.335.3570°74.8624°2546Bunji13.35.128.317.615.919.435.6431°74.6342°1532C1Chilas15.83.047.420.319.021.435.4222°74.0946°1265Gilgit11.73.422.315.814.616.935.8819°74.4643°1500Gupis15.90.456.312.610.914.136.2274°73.4421°2176Skardu19.15.741.311.810.113.235.3247°75.5510°2228Cherat52.116.0109.417.214.818.933.8215°71.8883°892Chitral37.917.864.916.014.717.435.7699°71.7741°1494Dir115.673.6179.115.514.718.935.1977°71.8749°1420Drosh47.825.179.317.615.319.635.5684°71.8038°1359C2Kohat47.819.583.323.322.024.433.5889°71.4429°489Parachinar72.244.2184.814.410.816.333.9011°70.0860°1705Peshawar40.215.875.422.921.824.034.0151°71.5249°331Risalpur55.920.689.822.221.223.134.0751°71.9876°309Zhob23.59.141.319.317.220.831.3497°69.4665°1426Balakot131.589.1207.418.617.419.834.5482°73.3532°3212Garhidupatta124.277.7175.919.217.420.634.2264°73.6157°819Islamabad120.656.3192.121.720.623.433.6844°73.0479°540C3Kakul111.278.3146.616.915.218.734.1875°73.2618°1300Kotli103.958.9160.821.920.122.933.5008°73.9007°707Murree145.1103.4202.813.011.214.833.9070°73.3943°2291Muzaffarabad124.176.5179.420.619.221.934.3551°73.4769°737Bahawalnagar19.94.843.625.123.826.630.0025°73.2412°163Bahawalpur15.20.955.925.724.626.829.3544°71.6911°214DI Khan26.111.663.023.722.424.831.8626°70.9019°165Faisalabad32.514.467.223.522.324.731.4504°73.1350°184C4Lahore55.327.8103.924.022.725.031.5204°74.3587°217Mianwali45.611.490.523.722.824.732.6645°71.4774°210Multan17.96.942.824.923.826.930.1575°71.5249°122Sargodha39.921.163.923.822.825.032.0740°72.6861°190Sialkot83.145.4157.222.421.123.532.4945°74.5229°256Badin18.60.076.226.825.827.824.6459°68.8467°10Chhor19.10.445.826.525.427.625.5114°69.7823°4Hyderabad13.20.443.727.726.828.925.3960°68.3578°13Jacobabad11.21.248.627.226.228.128.2823°68.4472°56C5Khanpur10.50.732.925.423.426.728.6332°70.6574°80Nawabshah12.30.055.326.925.928.226.2447°68.3935°29Padidan10.10.245.626.525.427.826.7724°68.2922°46Rohri9.10.237.729.627.130.727.6687°68.8943°62Sibbi14.40.031.730.326.931.929.5532°67.8808°130Dalbandin6.70.317.022.620.423.928.8854°64.3964°843Kalat15.30.081.414.612.916.629.0523°66.5879°2007Khuzdar21.34.449.621.819.423.327.8165°66.6057°1237C6Lasbela15.60.761.626.625.328.025.8700°66.7129°241Nokkundi2.90.015.624.522.626.128.8259°62.7500°679Panjgur8.31.425.422.420.423.726.7303°64.1478°980Quetta21.45.279.216.814.418.930.1798°66.9750°1679Jiwani8.60.332.225.724.126.925.0538°61.7707°57C7Karachi16.30.059.426.625.627.724.8607°67.0011°8Pasni8.30.029.725.322.626.525.2510°63.4154°10
Fig. 2.

Flow chart. Precipitation (P), Average Temperature (AT), Correlation coefficient (r), Product Estimator (PE), Regression Estimator (RE), Improved Precipitation (IP), Probability Distributions (PDs).

Table 2.

Categories of SPI and RIWSDI.

S. No.SPI and RIWSDI valuesCategories1.2.00 and aboveExtremely wet2.1.50 to 1.99Very wet3.1.00 to 1.49Moderate wet4.–0.99 to 0.99Near normal5.–1.00 to –1.49Moderate drought6.–1.50 to –1.99Severe drought7.–2.00 and lessExtremely drought
Fig. 3.

Comparison of precipitation records.

Table 3.

Statistics of the selected clusters (Regions).

RegionsMeanP(MA) (mm) S.DC.VMeanIP(MA) (mm) S.DC.VMeanAT(MA)(°C) S.DC.V119.25.830.518.35.027.514.70.53.7255.710.017.951.99.117.518.70.52.73120.417.414.5117.415.112.918.80.52.8437.39.525.534.97.421.324.70.52.0513.28.161.912.47.358.626.80.51.7613.15.945.012.95.643.624.70.52.0711.06.761.311.37.364.725.90.41.6

[i] Precipitation Monthly Annual (P(MA)), Improved Precipitation Monthly Annual (IP(MA)), Average Temperature Monthly Annual (AT(MA)), Standard Deviation (SD), Coefficient of Variation (CV).

Table 4.

Top-notch distributions with their parameters for Region-1.

RIWSDI/SPISPI3SPI12RIW1Function parameters BICGeneralised Normal α = 33.40, ξ = 45.92, κ = −0.57 –1099Gumbel µ = 195.04, β = 53.50 –736.81AstorFunction parameters BICGamma k = 1.77, θ = 0.014 –1289.66Triangular a = 160.30, b = 469.96, c = 766.18 –913.50BunjiFunction parameters BICGeneralised-normal α = 27.88, ξ = 26.21, κ = −0.70 –827.59Laplace µ = 151.19, b = 77.90 –692.36ChilasFunction parameters BIC4P Beta α1 = 0.98, α2 = 6.93, a = 2.50, b = 410.24 –815Laplace µ = 187.10, b = 102.14 –1335.20GilgitFunction parameters BICGamma k = 1.11, θ = 0.03 –836.32Inverse Gamma α = 7.28, β = 934.80 –1261.47GupisFunction parameters BICGamma k = 0.78, θ = 0.02 –1270.42Johnson SB ξ = 98.74, λ = 51.22, γ = −0.60, δ = 0.79 –940.08SkarduFunction parametersGeneralised extreme value µ = 27.35, ξ = 28.08, σ = 0.38Gamma k = 5.30, θ = 0.02BIC–656.22–1032.46
Table 5.

Top-notch distributions with their parameters for Region-3.

RIWSDI/SPISPI3SPI12RIW3Function parametersGumbel µ = 254.36, β = 160.12Inverse Gaussian µ = 1412.11, λ = 0.00BIC–1187.93–1119.06BalakotFunction parametersGumbel µ = 283.18, β = 186.72Generalised extreme value µ = 1428.91, ξ = 249.33, σ = 0.19BIC–1780.05–1224.08GarhidupattaFunction parameters BICLogistic µ = 331.46, σ = 115.38 –1728.47Cosine µ = −33873.65, σ = 803.06 –1030.12IslamabadFunction parametersGamma k = 1.52, θ = 0.004Normal µ = 1426.21, σ = 368.42BIC–1046.01–1435.98KakulFunction parameters BICTriangular a = −31.70, b = 201.11, c = 796.58 –1176.07Inverse Gaussian µ = 1344.88, λ = 0.00 –1476.64KotliFunction parameters BICGeneralised extreme value µ = 200.89, ξ = 150.87, σ = 0.28 –1487.17Cosine µ = 1237.87, σ = 724.98 –1721.01MurreeFunction parameters BICGumbel µ = 312.41, β = 222.11 –1609.62Inverse Gaussian µ = 1756.46, λ = 0.00 –1188.48MuzaffarabadFunction parametersGumbel µ = 267.78, β = 178.14Gumbel µ = 1372.88, β = 232.52BIC–1547.78–1072.52
Table 6.

Top-notch distributions with their parameters for Region-6.

RIWSDI/SPISPI3SPI12RIW6FunctionGammaTrapezoidalParametersk = 1.14, θ = 0.03a = −5.40, b = 153.4, c = 102.5, d = 325.37BIC−906.97−655.33DalbandinFunction3P WeibullGumbelParametersµ = 0.82, α = 0.48, β = 42.48µ = 51.24, β = 45.21BIC–820.47–1031.25KalatFunction4P BetaTrapezoidalParametersα1 = 0.38, α2 = 2.56, a = 2.42, b = 302.62a = 6151, b = −6170.14, c = 145, d = 457.65BIC–918.54–1365.03KhuzdarFunction4P BetaGammaParametersα1 = 0.97, α2 = 8.15, a = 2.50, b = 714.26k = 4.95, θ = 0.02BIC–933.31–818.74LasbelaFunction4P BetaGammaParametersα1 = 0.45, α2 = 77.80, a = 1.49, b = 9769.92k = 2.01, θ = 0.01BIC–1204.54–848.40NokkundiFunctionGeneralised normalGammaParametersα = 226.14, ξ = 71.56, κ = −3.20k = 0.86, θ = 0.02BIC–873.31–882.77PanjgurFunction3P WeibullLogisticParametersµ = 0.99, α = 0.84, β = 50.57µ = 84.07, σ = 32.69BIC–767.37–588.99QuettaFunction3P WeibullLaplaceParametersµ = 2.49, α = 0.79, β = 130.59µ = 215.85, b = 134.21BIC–1364.30–1075.69
Table 7.

Top-notch distributions with their parameters for Region-7.

RIWSDI/SPISPI3SPI12RIW7Function4P BetaRayleighParametersα1 = 0.46, α2 = 2.96, a = 1.18, b = 247.03µ = −40.46, σ = 131.59BIC–752.57–775.79JiwaniFunctionGeneralised NormalGammaParametersα = 268.56.ξ = 94.80, κ = −2.91k = 1.13, θ = 0.01BIC–734.53–739.74KarachiFunction3P Weibull3P WeibullParametersµ = 2.01, α = 0.44, β = 94.20µ = 25, α = 0.98, β = 221.30BIC–1285.18804.69PasniFunction3P WeibullExponentailParametersµ = 0.99, α = 0.57, β = 147.63λ = 0.008BIC–1045.91–713.748
Fig. 4.

Comparison of RIWSDI-3 and SPI-3.

Fig. 5.

Comparison of RIWSDI-12 and SPI-12.

Fig. 6.

Correlations of RIWSDI-3 and SPI-3.

Fig. 7.

Correlations of RIWSDI-12 and SPI-12.

Fig. 8.

Observed probability distribution functions for RIWSDI-3 and SPI-3 (Regions 1-4).

Fig. 9.

Observed probability distribution functions for RIWSDI-3 and SPI-3 (Regions 5-7).

Fig. 10.

Observed probability distribution functions for RIWSDI-12 and SPI-12 (Regions 1-4).

Fig. 11.

Observed probability distribution functions for RIWSDI-12 and SPI-12 (Regions 5-7).

Table 8.

Probability plotting position techniques.

NoFormula (Authors)YearDescriptionPPP-1Hazen1914P(xi) = i−0.5/nPPP-2Weibull1939P(xi) = i/n + 1PPP-3Beard1943P(xi) =i−0.31/n + 0.38PPP-4Blom1954P(xi) =i−0.375/n + 0.25PPP-5Chegodayov1955P(xi) = i−0.3/n + 0.4PPP-6Tukey1962P(xi) =3i−1/3n + 1
Table 9.

Non-parametric determination: correlation of RIWSDI-12 and SPI-12.

RegionsStationsHazenWeibullBeardBlomChegodayovTukeyAstor0.810.810.810.810.810.81Bunji0.740.740.740.740.740.74C1Chilas0.740.740.740.740.740.74Gilgit0.750.750.750.750.750.75Gupis0.640.640.640.640.640.64Skardu0.680.680.680.680.680.68Cherat0.750.750.750.750.750.75Chitral0.450.450.450.450.450.45Dir0.540.540.540.540.540.54Drosh0.470.470.470.470.470.47C2Kohat0.560.560.560.560.560.56Parachinar0.670.670.670.670.670.67Peshawar0.770.770.770.770.770.77Risalpur0.720.720.720.720.720.72Zhob0.340.340.340.340.340.34Balakot0.710.710.710.710.710.71Garhidupatta0.600.600.600.600.600.60Islamabad0.650.650.650.650.650.65C3Kakul0.820.820.820.820.820.82Kotli0.720.720.720.720.720.72Murree0.770.770.770.770.770.77Muzaffarabad0.780.780.780.780.780.78Bahawalnagar0.660.660.660.660.660.66Bahawalpur0.660.660.660.660.660.66DI Khan0.570.570.570.570.570.57Faisalabad0.560.560.560.560.560.56C4Lahore0.730.730.730.730.730.73Mianwali0.670.670.670.670.670.67Multan0.590.590.590.590.590.59Sargodha0.630.630.630.630.630.63Sialkot0.660.660.660.660.660.66Badin0.850.850.850.850.850.85Chhor0.820.820.820.820.820.82Hyderabad0.780.780.780.780.780.78Jacobabad0.770.770.770.770.770.77C5Khanpur0.650.650.650.650.650.65Nawabshah0.900.900.900.900.900.90Padidan0.830.830.830.830.830.83Rohri0.710.710.710.710.710.71Sibbi0.680.680.680.680.680.68Dalbandin0.720.720.720.720.7220.72Kalat0.690.690.690.690.690.69Khuzdar0.820.820.820.820.820.82C6Lasbela0.620.620.620.620.620.62Nokkundi0.440.440.440.440.440.44Panjgur0.730.730.730.730.730.73Jiwani0.780.780.780.780.780.78Quetta0.520.520.520.520.520.52C7Karachi0.800.800.800.800.800.80Pasni0.710.710.710.710.710.71
Table 10.

Shapiro–Wilk test for Region (1–5).

Time scale-3Time scale-12RegionsStationsWp-valueMedWp-valueMedRegion-10.990.520.030.990.070.04Astor0.990.040.040.990.000.06Bunji0.990.0510.020.990.000.03C1Chilas0.990.000.0010.970.000.12Gilgit0.990.290.020.990.0020.05Gupis0.990.000.0070.970.000.06Skardu0.990.0020.040.990.030.03Region-20.990.0030.040.990.090.03Cherat0.990.0000.020.990.0010.06Chitral0.990.060.050.990.050.04Dir0.990.080.020.980.000.04C2Drosh0.990.020.030.980.000.08Kohat0.990.0050.010.970.000.07Parachinar0.970.000.080.870.000.02Peshawar0.990.130.040.990.0040.06Risalpur0.990.730.0160.990.0000.04Zhob0.990.260.0080.990.0000.12Region-30.990.780.030.990.0010.001Balakot0.990.610.0010.970.0000.15Garhidupatta0.990.790.030.990.020.03C3Islamabad0.990.110.0050.990.010.08Kakul0.990.090.050.990.040.001Kotli0.990.490.050.990.0010.03Murree0.990.060.0040.990.0050.02Muzaffarabad0.980.000.0030.980.000.09Region-40.990.080.060.980.000.03Bahawalnagar0.990.0040.0010.990.0010.03Bahawalpur0.990.010.040.980.000.04DI Khan0.990.570.0060.980.000.04C4Faisalabad0.970.000.030.990.0080.03Lahore0.990.060.040.980.000.08Mianwali0.990.880.030.980.000.04Multan0.990.000.030.990.0020.03Sargodha0.990.220.340.980.000.01Sialkot0.990.540.010.990.000.07Region-50.990.330.0660.990.000.11Badin0.980.000.070.970.000.019Chhor0.980.000.150.950.000.06Hyderabad0.980.000.030.990.000.06C5Jacobabad0.990.0010.020.980.000.08Khanpur0.990.0040.020.980.000.02Nawabshah0.990.0010.030.990.0010.07Padidan0.990.010.080.990.010.01Rohri0.980.000.200.990.000.98Sibbi0.980.000.030.990.000.02
Table 11.

Shapiro–Wilk test for Region (6–7).

Time scale-3Time scale-12RegionsStationsWp-valueMedWp-valueMedRegion-60.990.830.020.990.0060.02Dalbandin0.990.000.230.970.000.07Kalat0.980.000.0680.970.000.06Khuzdar0.990.120.040.980.000.04C6Lasbela0.980.000.010.990.030.01Nokkundi0.970.000.640.980.000.008Panjgur0.980.000.150.980.000.04Quetta0.990.020.020.970.000.04Region-70.990.330.060.980.000.12Jiwani0.980.000.350.980.000.01C7Karachi0.990.010.0070.980.000.06Pasni0.990.000.300.970.000.07
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1773699 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
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Language: English
Page range: 1773699 - 1773699
Published on: Jan 1, 2020
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Keywords:
drought,
standardized precipitation index,
drought indices,
regional drought,
auxiliary information

© 2020 He Jiang, Muhammad Asif Khan, Zhilong Li, Zulfiqar Ali, Farman Ali, Sajid Gul, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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