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Effect of observation error variance adjustment on numerical weather prediction using forecast sensitivity to error covariance parameters Cover

Effect of observation error variance adjustment on numerical weather prediction using forecast sensitivity to error covariance parameters

By:  and    
Open Access
|Jan 2018

Figures & Tables

Table 1.

Abbreviations for various observation types.

AbbreviationDescriptionATOVSAMSU-AAdvanced microwave sounding unit-A (Tb)AMSU-BAdvanced microwave sounding unit-B (Tb)HIRSHigh-resolution infrared radiation sounder (Tb)Geo_AMVGOESGeostationary operational environmental satellite (u, v)MFGMeteosat first generation (Meteosat-7) by European organisation for the exploitation of meteorological satellites (u, v)MSGMeteosat second generation (Meteosat-9) by European organisation for the exploitation of meteorological satellites (u, v)MTSATMulti-functional transport satellite (u, v)KMA COMSCommunication, ocean and meteorological satellite by Korea metorological administration (u, v)IASIInfrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (Tb)AIRSAtmospheric infrared sounder (Tb)SSMI/SSpecial sensor microwave imager/sounder (Tb)ASCATAdvanced scatterometer (u, v)GPSROGlobal positioning system radio occultation (bending angle)SONDETEMPUpper-air observations from a radiosonde (u, v, t, p, q)PILOTUpper-air wind profile from a Pilot Balloon or Radiosonde (u, v)PRFLWind profiler (u, v)AIRCRAFTUpper-air wind and temperature from aircraft (u, v, t)SURFACESYNOPLand surface synoptic weather observations (u, v, t, p, q)METARSurface weather observations and reports (u, v, t, p, q)SHIPSea surface weather observation by ship (u, v, t, p, q)BUOYSea surface weather observation by buoy (u, v, t, p, q)TCBOGUSTropical cyclone bogus observations generated by national meteorological centres (u, v, p)
Fig. 1.

The average forecast sensitivity to the background error covariance parameter (grey bar, J kg−1 d−1), the average forecast sensitivity to the observation covariance parameters (grey bar, J kg−1 d−1), and the associated 99% confidence interval (black line) in August 2012.

Table 2.

The error covariance adjustment parameters corresponding to the background error covariance (B) and the observation error variances of ATOVS, AIRS, IASI, Geo_AMV, ASCAT, SSMI/S, GPSRO, aircraft temperature (AIRCRAFT_t), aircraft wind (AIRCRAFT_uv), SONDE temperature (SONDE_t), SONDE wind (SONDE_uv), SONDE specific humidity (SONDE_q), surface temperature (SURFACE_t), surface wind (SURFACE_uv), surface pressure (SURFACE_p), and surface specific humidity (SURFACE_q) for July and August 2012. Rejection occurs when the specific forecast sensitivity to the error covariance data is greater than three times of standard deviation from the time-averaged values.

BATOVSAIRSIASIGeo_AMV0.3000−0.7214−0.6886−0.7491−0.8101ASCATSSMI/SGPSROAIRCRAFT_tAIRCRAFT_uv−0.5100−0.1541−0.5031−0.3452−0.7304SONDE_tSONDE_uvSONDE_qSURFACE_tSURFACE_uv−0.7250−0.74530.1893−0.6731−0.3971SURFACE_pSURFACE_qRejection rate−0.56100.134317/244 (6.9%)
Table 3.

The observation error variances (K) of AMSU-A, AMUS-B, and HIRS, used operationally in the KMA UM 4DVAR system and those deflated. Channels 1, 2, 3, and 15 of AMSU-A, channels 1 and 2 of AMSU-B, and channels 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 of HIRS are not used for the DA.

SensorChannel numberAMSU-AAMSU-BHIRSDeflated AMSU-ADeflated AMSU-BDeflated HIRS14.08.02.01.112.220.5524.05.00.81.111.390.2232.04.00.80.551.110.2241.2654.00.50.351.110.1350.254.00.50.071.110.1360.25–0.80.07–0.2270.25–1.20.07–0.3380.25–6.00.07–1.6790.4–6.00.11–1.67100.4–6.00.11–1.67110.5–5.00.13–1.39120.95–5.00.26–1.39131.225–1.20.34–0.33144.0–1.21.11–0.33153.0–0.50.83–0.1316––0.5––0.1317––0.5––0.1318––0.5––0.1319––0.5––0.1320––0.5––0.13
Fig. 2.

The δsio for various observation types and variables for July and August 2012, corresponding to 10% (black circle), 30% (red circle), 50% (blue circle), 70% (green circle), and 90% (purple circle) inflation of δsb.

Fig. 3.

Time series of the nonlinear FER (black solid line, J kg−1), the approximated FER in the observation space (observation impact; red solid line, J kg−1), the approximated FER in the parametric space (error covariance impact; blue dashed line, J kg−1) in (a) July and August 2012 and (b) the nonlinear FER (black solid line, J kg−1), the observation impact (red solid line, J kg−1) in August 2012, the error covariance impact (blue dashed line, J kg−1) by the sb– sensitivity and sio– sensitivity of August 2012 and the error covariance adjustment parameters in Table 2. The green shading with black solid line (J kg−1) in (b) denotes the difference between error covariance impact of ADJ_COV and error covariance impact of CTL in August 2012.

Fig. 4.

Schematic of the control experiment (CTL: black line) and the experiment with the adjusted observation error variance (ADJ_COV: grey line).

Fig. 5.

The ratio between the time-integrated O-A of ADJ_COV and CTL in the observation space for August 2012, stratified by each observation type and variable.

Fig. 6.

The ratio between the time-integrated O-F of ADJ_COV and CTL in the observation space for August 2012, stratified by each observation type and variable.

Fig. 7.

Time series of the ratio between the average O-Fs of ADJ_COV and CTL in the observation space for August 2012. The O-Fs of ADJ_COV and CTL are averaged for all observation types.

Fig. 8.

Vertical profile of the root mean square (RMS) of the average O-F of ADJ_COV (grey dashed) and CTL (black solid) in the observation space. The RMS error is calculated based on global SONDE (TEMP, PILOT, and PRFL) observations in August 2012.

Fig. 9.

The RMS of the average O-F of ADJ_COV (grey bar), CTL (black bar), and the reduction rate (dark grey with dashed line) in the observation space. The RMS of the average O-F is calculated based on (a) Metop-A AMSU-A and (b) NOAA19 AMSU-A channels globally in August 2012.

Fig. 10.

(a) The RMS of the average O-F of ADJ_COV (red bar) and CTL (blue bar) and (b) reduction rate (dark grey bar) in the observation space. The RMS of the average O-F is calculated based on global MetOp-A IASI channels in August 2012. The wavelength range, which corresponds to the channel number, is represented by a dashed line.

Language: English
Page range: 1492839 - 1492839
Submitted on: Dec 20, 2017
Accepted on: Jun 19, 2018
Published on: Jan 1, 2018
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2018 Sung-Min Kim, Hyun Mee Kim, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.