Table 1
Medical characteristics as distributed over the four patients; each characteristic was neutral or favourable (+) in two patients and unfavourable (−/−) in the other two
|
Medical characteristica |
Patient Lo |
Patient Med1 |
Patient Med2 |
Patient Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Smoking |
−/− |
+ |
−/− |
+ |
|
Body mass index (kg/m2) |
+ (22) |
−/− (30)↑ |
+ (23.5) |
−/− (30.5)↑ |
|
Family history |
−/− |
+ |
−/− |
+ |
|
Total cholesterol (mmol/L) |
−/− (7.3)↑ |
−/− (7.2)↑ |
+ (5.3) |
+ (5.1) |
|
Blood pressure (mm/Hg) |
−/− (170/110)↑ |
+ (140/80) |
−/− (180/105)↑ |
+ (135/85) |
|
Alcohol use |
−/− |
+ |
−/− |
+ |
|
Haemoglobin (mmol/L) |
−/− (6.3)↓ |
−/− (6.0)↓ |
+ (8.9) |
+ (9.2) |
|
Proteinuria (g/days) |
−/− (1.3)↑ |
−/− (1.0)↑ |
+ |
+ |
|
Fasting blood sugar (mmol/L) |
−/− (10.5)↑ |
−/− (11)↑ |
+ (5.0) |
+ (4.5) |
|
Body exercise |
+ |
+ |
−/− |
−/− |
|
C-reactive protein (mg/L) |
+ (3) |
−/− (22)↑ |
+ (2) |
−/− (23)↑ |
|
Serum creatinine (μmol/L) |
−/− (125)↑ |
+ (70) |
−/− (127)↑ |
+ (72) |
|
25 + 75 % −/− |
50 + 50 % −/− |
50 + 50 % −/− |
75 + 25 % −/− |
aOnly the first four characteristics (in italics) were used in the Simple versions; ↑ = elevated (or obesity in case of BMI); ↓ = lowered
Table 2
Study design
|
Mode of thought |
Simple versions (SIM) |
Complex versions (CPX) |
|---|---|---|
|
Conscious (CSC) |
4 × 4 statements |
4 × 12 statements |
|
4 min conscious thought |
4 min conscious thought | |
|
Unconscious (UNC) |
4× 4 statements |
4× 12 statements |
|
4 min anagrams |
4 min anagrams |
Table 3
Mean ranks of percentages given by novices and experts in their assessments of life expectancy, after conscious or unconscious thought (lowest percentage: rank = 1; highest percentage: rank = 4)
|
Level of expertise |
Simple/Complex |
Conscious/Unconscious |
Patienta |
Mean |
SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Novices (N = 57) |
Simple (N = 29) |
CSC (N = 15) |
Lo |
2.03 |
0.27 |
|
Med1 |
2.40 |
0.25 | |||
|
Med2 |
2.37 |
0.24 | |||
|
Hi |
3.20 |
0.29 | |||
|
UNC (N = 14) |
Lo |
2.14 |
0.28 | ||
|
Med1 |
2.57 |
0.25 | |||
|
Med2 |
2.57 |
0.25 | |||
|
Hi |
2.71 |
0.30 | |||
|
Complex (N = 28) |
CSC (N = 15) |
Lo |
2.43 |
0.27 | |
|
Med1 |
2.47 |
0.25 | |||
|
Med2 |
2.20 |
0.24 | |||
|
Hi |
2.90 |
0.29 | |||
|
UNC (N = 13) |
Lo |
1.54 |
0.29 | ||
|
Med1 |
2.89 |
0.26 | |||
|
Med2 |
2.81 |
0.26 | |||
|
Hi |
2.77 |
0.31 | |||
|
Expertsb (N = 86) |
Simple (N = 27) |
CSC (N = 14) |
Lo |
2.18 |
0.28 |
|
Med1 |
2.25 |
0.25 | |||
|
Med2 |
2.46 |
0.25 | |||
|
Hi |
3.11 |
0.30 | |||
|
UNC (N = 13) |
Lo |
1.96 |
0.29 | ||
|
Med1 |
1.92 |
0.26 | |||
|
Med2 |
3.12 |
0.26 | |||
|
Hi |
3.00 |
0.31 | |||
|
Complex (N = 59) |
CSC (N = 28) |
Lo |
1.68 |
0.20 | |
|
Med1 |
2.54 |
0.18 | |||
|
Med2 |
2.41 |
0.18 | |||
|
Hi |
3.38 |
0.21 | |||
|
UNC (N = 31) |
Lo |
1.98 |
0.19 | ||
|
Med1 |
2.24 |
0.17 | |||
|
Med2 |
2.52 |
0.17 | |||
|
Hi |
3.26 |
0.20 |
CSC conscious thought, UNC unconscious thought, SE standard error
aPatient Lo has the lowest life expectancy, patient Hi the highest, and patients Med1 and Med2 in between; the lower the mean rank for Patient Lo and the higher the mean rank for Patient Hi, the more accurate the assessments
bWe recruited a greater number of experts to participate in the complex conditions to examine differences in level of expertise; there was no significant difference, therefore we collapsed the two groups
Table 4
Mean rank correlations (Rho) between participant ranks and objective ranks
|
Simple/Complex |
Conscious/Unconscious |
Mean |
SE |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Novices | |||
|
Simple |
CSC |
0.35 |
0.15 |
|
UNC |
0.19 |
0.16 | |
|
Complex |
CSC |
0.12 |
0.15 |
|
UNC |
0.37 |
0.16 | |
|
Experts | |||
|
Simple |
CSC |
0.31 |
0.16 |
|
UNC |
0.47 |
0.16 | |
|
Complex |
CSC |
0.53 |
0.11 |
|
UNC |
0.47 |
0.11 | |
CSC conscious thought, UNC unconscious thought; higher means correspond with better task performance