From Tariffs to the Dinner Table: Beef Prices Under U.S Tariff Policy

This study investigates how recent U.S. tariff policy translated into consumer food prices, focusing on beef as a trade-exposed and economically important product. Using quarterly price data from Cost-of-Living Index (COLI) project conducted by the Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER), we examine changes in beef prices across U.S. metropolitan areas from 2023 to 2025, with particular attention to the tariff measures enacted in April 2025 under Executive Order 14257.

Beef provides an ideal setting for studying tariff impacts. USDA data show that the U.S. relies more heavily on imported beef products than it does for other major protein sources such as pork, chicken, or eggs. As a result, price increases driven by trade policy are more likely to be reflected on beef. We therefore hypothesize that the implementation of tariffs led to a substantial increase in beef prices faced by U.S. consumers.

Our preliminary analysis reveals a clear and widespread pattern: average beef prices by areas begin rising sharply after the first quarter of 2025, with the rate of price growth accelerating through the end of the year across the whole nation. This increase is observed for both steak and ground beef, suggesting that tariff-induced cost pressures propagate broadly within the beef market. This project contributes to the literature on trade policy and consumer prices by providing timely, product-level evidence of how tariffs affect household food costs. Ongoing work applies a difference-in-difference methodology comparing beef to less trade-exposed products to more precisely isolate the impact of tariff policy.