What Drives Election Turnout Differences Across States: A Comparative Analysis

Many pundits said during the lead up to the 2024 presidential election that it was the most important election in American history. In the context of that extreme rhetoric, it might be expected that voter turnout would rise to that occasion. Yet, only 64% of eligible voters turned out across the country. Turnout, however, was not consistent across states. The gap between high turnout states and low turnout states was substantial. In the 2024 presidential election, 50% of eligible Hawaiian voters voted compared to 77% in Wisconsin. What drives differences in state voter turnout? The answer to this question is crucial for understanding how to strengthen democracy and encourage greater political participation in future elections. Despite this, there is scant literature considering what drives state differences in turnout. This paper answers the question and ultimately, it determines that the electoral college Americans use to elect their president acts as the divergent force in turnout levels. In general, swing states experience greater turnout than non-swing states, and the competitiveness of a state’s election correlates significantly with its turnout. The paper explains, though, that the state’s level of competitiveness is not a perfect indicator. Considering demographic differences like levels of education and income as well as age and race also provide context to explain voter behavior. Still, Americans of all backgrounds who live in non-competitive states may come to the rational conclusion that their vote is ultimately futile in the electoral college system and choose to stay home.