Pandemics, Progressives, and Pastures: The Role of COVID-19 in Wisconsin's 2020 Democratic Primary Election

In a time of unprecedented polarization and political vitriol, it is of the utmost importance to understand voter choice. In 2020, heightened polarization combined with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic produced one of the most contentious election cycles in the history of the United States. There is a clear need to understand how the coronavirus altered election outcomes and revealed the motivations of the voting public. Moreover, the 2020 partisan presidential primaries coincided with stay-at-home orders in thirty-two different states, with Wisconsin being the first state to go ahead with an in-person primary despite a stay-at-home order. The Wisconsin Democratic primary results were particularly interesting: Senator Bernie Sanders lost every single county to Joe Biden despite winning all but one county in 2016. This unique set of circumstances and the change in favored candidates prompts a question: How did COVID-19 impact voter behavior in the 2020 Wisconsin Democratic Primary?

            To address this question, this paper uses statistical analysis to understand the relationship between COVID-19 cases and each candidate’s share of votes. This paper then analyzes these results using existing theories of voter behavior and polling data from Wisconsin constituents. Statistical analysis revealed that as COVID cases per 100,000 people decreased, support for Biden increased by 0.03 percent. Conversely, as COVID cases per 100,000 people increased, support for Sanders increased by 0.03 percent. In the five least rural counties, support for Biden fell 19.64 percent for every case per 100,000 people, but there was not a corresponding rise in support for Sanders. In this paper, I make the argument that these findings, as well as Joe Biden’s overall win, are a result of increased voter distress in a polarized environment. Voters who previously watched Bernie Sanders lose the Democratic nomination, when faced with pandemic-related stress, chose a more mainstream Democrat to compete with Donald Trump in the general election. Moreover, metropolitan voters lived in areas with high rates of COVID-19, resulting in irregular polling access which decreased overall turnout. The implications of this research may help us understand how voters behave in times of crisis, and how public health impacts the urban-rural divide. Research that focuses on what speaks to voters, particularly marginalized voters, can be vital to helping political candidates and political leaders understand how to energize their base and familiarize themselves with the needs of their constituents.