Renewable energy transition in Poland: scenario-based analysis of solar and wind integration in the power system

This article examines the current status and development prospects of renewable energy sources (RES) in Poland in the context of the national energy transition and European climate objectives. The study addresses three research questions concerning the role of RES in Poland’s energy mix, their development potential, and the main opportunities and barriers to increasing their share. The research combines a literature and data review with scenario-based simulations using the Polish Power System Simulator, based on real weather data from 2015–2023 and electricity demand from 2023. Four scenarios were analysed: the current state, PV-based, wind-based, and combined PV + wind. The results show that RES already play a significant role in Poland’s energy sector. In 2023, their share reached 27%, with total installed capacity of 28.6 GW, increasing to 33.3 GW in 2024, dominated by photo-voltaics and wind. Despite this growth, coal still accounted for 60.5% of electricity generation in 2023, indicating continued dependence on conventional sources. The analysis identifies solar and wind energy as the main drivers of future RES development. However, further expansion is limited by grid constraints, connection refusals, curtailment, regulatory barriers (including the 700 m rule for wind farms), and insufficient storage and flexibility resources. Simulation results indicate that the combined PV + wind scenario provides the most balanced and resilient system configuration due to complementary generation profiles. Nevertheless, dispatchable backup capacity remains necessary. Achieving a higher RES share is technically feasible but requires diversification, grid modernisation, expanded storage, and stable regulatory conditions.