The impact of employment restriction on the risk of an accident at work in the mining industry in Poland

The European Union's energy policy has necessitated a reduction in coal mining, with significant consequences for occupational safety within the industry. This study investigates the correlation between employment reduction and accident risk within Poland's mining sector during 2006-2020, a period marked by over a 40% decrease in coal extraction and a corresponding 30% decrease in mining employment. An escalation in the relative risk (RR) of accidents was observed, increasing from 1.28 to 2.33. More critically, the RR of fatal accidents rose from 2.54 to 8.22 by 2019. Analysis revealed a critical employment threshold: a fall in mining employment below 140,000 is associated with a marked increase in accident risk, particularly fatal accidents. A linear model was developed to suggest that a reduction in the RR of accidents to 0.7 is requisite to achieve a national average risk for fatal accidents (RR = 1). The findings advocate for targeted safety interventions and propose a preventive strategy model. The implications are vital for policymakers and industry stakeholders aiming to improve worker safety in response to employment changes within the mining sector.